Now that we’re a full turn through the rotations of all the full season squads, I thought i’d kick off the monthly series of rotation reviews with an “Opening day” rotation review, comparing it to how we ended last year and talking about who’s where, who’s surprisingly up or down where i thought they would be, etc.
I posted a prediction piece guessing the 2025 rotations in late November, that i’ll pull in here team by team, so that we can see just how wrong I was 
MLB:
- End of 2024 Season: Gore, Irvin, Williams, Herz, Parker, Corbin
- Prediction for 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Herz, Veteran FA signing with Grey on DL, Cavalli in AAA)
- Opening Day 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
Rotation Prediction and 2025 Observations: Well, we were pretty close on the predictions, getting four of the five right (Gore, Irvin, Parker, and Veteran VA signing in TWilliams). We missed on the Nats signing several more arms to have open competition for the 5th slot between Soroka, Ogasawara, and Herz. In the end, Ogasawara didn’t quite look ready for prime time (more on that in AAA section), and Herz looks like he’s heading to TJ. Grey on the DL as expected; Cavalli also on the MLB DL instead of in AAA because, well, apparently it now takes like 5 years to recover from TJ surgery in the Nats organization.
Shortest Leash to start the season: I’d say Parker is on the shortest leash, in that he was clearly the 5th starter to earn a spot. However, Soroka is already down win an injury and interestingly the team seems to have chosen not to backfill him immediately with a AAA starter. That’s partly due to early season off-day schedule, and partly due to the fact that they have a starter-turned-bullpen guy in Brad Lord in the bullpen (update: Lord made last night’s start and went three, so I’m penciling him in as 5th starter for now).
Bullpen comments: As is typical for Mike Rizzo constructed teams, the bullpen is a hodge podge of random Nats developed arms (Ferrer, Ribalta, Lord), Scrap-heap signings (Salazar, Poche, Law), and veteran one year FA types (Finnegan, Lopez, Sims). They’ve been less than impressive to open the 2025 season, not helped one bit by their 2024 stalwart Law immediately hitting the DL. I’m sure we’ll see the DCA-ROC regional shuttle get good use this year.
AAA:
- End of 2024 Season: Alvarez, Lord, Ward, Rutledge, Watkins (Stuart hit DL last week of season)
- Prediction for 2025: Rutledge, Lord, Alvarez, Stuart, Cavalli/MLFA signing
- Opening Day 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Ogasawara, Choi, Solesky
Rotation Prediction and 2025 Observations: Watkins and Ward departed the season (by MLFA and Waivers respectively). My Nov predictions for 2025’s rotation were scuttled by a couple of surprising, and welcome moves. Rutledge has been moved to relief (which I never thought the team would do), and Lord (a personal favorite) made the MLB team. Stuart remains on the DL, otherwise likely would be in the rotation at the expense of (probably) Choi. I thought Cavalli would be ready to go and would be in the rotation; no dice. So instead we get a AA-level Rule5 guy in Choi to start along with two guys who moved up from AA last year in Lara and Solesky. Is 22-yr old Lara ready for AAA? I don’t think so, but he’s there. You could argue he had little to prove with 19 2024 AA starts; fair enough. Solesky needed the promotion; he’s 27 and its either up or out, even if I predicted he’d be back in AA last fall.
Next guy to get promoted: Both Lara and Ogasawara are on the 40-man, but neither seems ready to move up if needed. I think Alvarez would be the guy who makes the most sense unless Cavalli came off the DL if they need a starter. Solesky is 27 and is the elder statesman of the bunch, but his AAA time came in 2023 and he got shelled, so he needs to prove himself a bit more before getting a shot.
Shortest Leash to start the season: Choi seems like he should be in AA as a minor league Rule5 guy and would be the first guy I would think gets demoted if the results aren’t there/they need a spot. Lara had 19 starts in AA last year and apparently that’s going to be enough.
Bullpen comments: Rutledge started the year as the closer, but got pushed up quickly with Soroka’s injury. This led to the cascading promotion domino effect of Henry getting pushed up to now be AAA’s closer, following in the Starter -> Reliever conversion trend. There’s a couple of home grown, intriguing arms here (Sinclair, Romero), and the rest are what you’d expect of a AAA bullpen: MLFAs, Rule5 picks, and waiver claims.
AA:
- End of 2024 Season: Lara, Shuman, Solesky, Luckham, Saenz (Theophile)
- Prediction for 2025: Lara, Shuman, Sokesky, Luckham, Cuevas with Henry (i), Knowles (i) on DL.
- Opening Day 2025: Shuman, Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Atencio
Rotation Prediction and 2025 Observations: The first day of 2025 looks an awful lot like the last day of 2024 for this rotation: Luckham, Saenz, and Shuman leading the line. They’re joined by the newly promoted Susana, aggresively moved up from his half season in High-A last year. I predicted Lara would be the 5th here in the typical Nats “half season promotion plan” but instead he’s in AAA. Henry to the pen as discussed, and Knowles still hurt, which leaves us with Atencio, who earns the promotion as well. Cuevas was in and out of the rotation all last year and is still in AA, likely filling in as LR/SS. Last year’s rotation stalwart Theophile hit 6-year MLFA and is out of the system.
Next guy to get promoted: If Shuman stays healthy, he’s already 27 and should be on the way up. Luckham was up briefly to AAA but got shelled; he might be 2nd in line to move up. The rest, especially Susana and Atencio, are likely here for at least half a season.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Saenz is probably on the shortest leash here: he had an 8+ ERA in AA last year. Luckily for him there’s not huge pressure on him just yet in the form of injured starters coming out of XST to the AA level.
Bullpen comments: One of our more important reliever prospects is here in Grissom, along with some solid performers in the system like Peterson and Powell. We also stuck three MLFA signings from the off-season here; they could move up quickly. I’m sure a MLFA signing with AAA time is not happy to be in AA.
High-A:
- End of 2024 Season: Susana, Cornelio, Tepper, Caceres, Atencio
- Prediction for 2025: Susana, Sykora, Atencio, Bennett, Clemmey (with Young, Caceres, Cornelio, Tepper, or Davis getting moved to the bullpen)
- Opening Day 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Tepper
Rotation Prediction and 2025 Observations: My prediction for High-A got shellacked with the aggresive promotion of Susana & Atencio and the lingering DL stays for Sykora & Bennett. That means I got just one name right; Opening day starter Clemmey. He’s joined by two guys who i’m kind of shocked are still high-A starters (Cornelio, Tepper), a surprise promotion (Sthele, who had a 4.81 ERA in 23 G/21 Starts last year in Low-A), and a surprise High-A pro debut for 2024 4th rounder Jackson Kent (who I thought would be in Low-A). I was correct in that Young and Davis moved to the bullpen, and Caceres was just put on the 7-day DL.
Next guy to get promoted: I have no idea. You have to think Clemmey and Kent, the two most important prospects, are here for at least two months no matter what. Cornelio and Tepper are hold-overs but have never really shown they should still be starters, let alone get promoted. Sthele just moved up and isn’t going to be ready for AA anytime soon. Hence my above comment about there being almost no pressure on the AA rotation right now unless someone like Bennett shows back up and dominates in A-ball like one would think he should/would.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Cornelio & Tepper seem likely to make way when Bennett is ready to pitch.
Bullpen comments: NDFAs, senior draftees, and MLFAs. A hodge podge of arms here. I am kind of surprised Davis is in the bullpen; he had really good numbers last year. Maybe he’ll pitch tandem.
Low-A:
- End of 2024 Season: Sykora, Romero, Clemmey, Sthele, Polanco
- Prediction for 2025: Tolman, Aldonis, Kent, Colon, Portorreal, with Sthele, Polanco, Romero as LR/SS options. (dl: Sullivan, Agostini)
- Opening Day 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia
Rotation Prediction and 2025 Observations: My predictions last November were way off. Tolman is now a reliever, Aldonis is still hurt, Kent & Sthele made the High-A team, and Colon & Portorreal are still in XST. Brayan Romero is on the DL, along with Sullivan & Agostini, both of whom went straight to 60-day to start the season.
That left three slots for 2024 draftees, which is a great thing for the development honestly. So we get Meckley (12th rounder), Tejeda (14th rounder) and Garcia (6th rounder) in the opening day rotation. They’re joined by IFA signings Polanco and Roman. We do not get Cranz in the rotation as some scouting pundits predicted, and
Next guy to get promoted: I’d guess Polanco, who was in the Low-A rotation for most of 2024. Garcia is the highest profile 2024 draftee and may push his way up quickly.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: I’d guess Meckley or Tejeda has the least amount of capital investment and have the shortest leashes. Roman was a sub $10k IFA signing and is found money; I hope he succeeds.
Bullpen comments: converted position player Mejia is here, age 30 pitching in Low-A. There’s 5 guys with names that start with “B” in this bullpen. Not much else.
Who’s left in XST/FCL? Colon and Portorreal, who I thought maybe would make the low-A team. Another couple of newly graduated DSL guys like Farias and Moreno. However, when the FCL season starts i’m guessing its 5-6 starters all coming straight from the DSL roster.