In a wide open draft, Seth Hernandez might have the highest ceiling of anybody
A high school right handed pitcher has never gone number one overall in the history of the MLB Draft. There is good reason for this, as high school righty’s are the riskiest demographic of all. However, Seth Hernandez of Corona High School is a special talent and is in the mix to go very high this year.
Historically, prep right handers have been very risky. Even in the past 10 or so years, I remember flame throwers like Tyler Kolek and Riley Pint having a ton of hype before not panning out. However, as we learn more about evaluating pitching, could we become better at finding the best high school arms? Guys like Jackson Jobe and Andrew Painter were very highly regarded high school righties that have been drafted in recent years, and look like they will come good.
According to Baseball America, Seth Hernandez has the most upside in the class. That is why he was taken third overall in the recent mock draft they did, ahead of bats like Ethan Holliday, Jace Laviolette and Aiva Arquette.
He looks like your prototypical pitcher. Hernandez is 6’4 190 pounds with a mid to upper 90’s fastball. Interestingly, his best secondary pitch is a knockout changeup that plays beautifully off of his fastball. These days, it is more common to see high schoolers best secondary pitches be a power breaking ball than a changeup. Unlike a lot of guys who rely on a changeup, Hernandez can spin a breaking ball too, with his curveball registering elite spin rates.
Hernandez also finds the strike zone, something that separates him from a lot of the failed high school righties of yesteryear. It may be more control than command right now, but that command is projected to come as he matures. MLB Pipeline also noted how strong Hernandez’s character is and how he is able to make adjustments. That ability to adapt and make adjustments is such a key piece of the modern game. Guys come out with new pitches every year, so that aptitude is key.
It is a bit of an oxymoron, but Hernandez is as safe as it comes for a high school righty. The Nats have also done a good job developing pitchers lately, so selecting Hernandez plays into their strengths. It is also likely that Hernandez would be an under slot selection, which would allow them to do some fun things with their massive bonus pool down the board.
Going underslot is risky, but also mitigates risk. A perfect example of this is the 2021 Pirates draft. Their first overall pick Henry Davis has not produced the way the team hoped. However, with the money that they saved they got Bubba Chandler in the third round, something they wouldn’t have been able to do otherwise. So even if Hernandez doesn’t hit, the money they save will give the Nats more shots in a draft that is seen as lacking in sure things at the top, but heavy in depth.
Seth Hernandez is a very exciting prospect, but also a risky one. There will be some in the fanbase that don’t want to take the risk, and that is understandable. However, Hernandez has ace upside and allows the Nats to spend more money later in the draft. Brad Ciolek, who runs the Nats draft room has a lot of experience going underslot, both in Baltimore and last year with the Nats. It is an interesting option in a draft with a ton of uncertainty at the top, but a lot of depth down the board.