Nathaniel Lowe: A Tale of Aggression and Power for Nationals slugger

A new plate approach can make the difference

Just days before Christmas, the Nationals general manager picked up the phone and dialed an out of state number. That number Mike Rizzo dialed up was none other than the tallest general manager in baseball Chris Young, shortly after the Rangers and Nats made a swap. Robert Garcia for Nate Lowe straight up.

The player that the Nationals thought they would get from the Texas Rangers could not be any different than what they received. Nathaniel Lowe has been a consistent presence in the Rangers lineup since 2021, known for his solid on-base skills and power every now and then. However, Lowe has taken a more aggressive approach at the plate this season.

Consistency in 2023 and 2024

Lowe’s 23’ and 24’ seasons showcased steady production from the plate. Making him one of the most reliable first basemen in baseball.

• 2023: .262/.360/.414, 117 wRC+, 12.8% BB rate, 22.8% K rate
• 2024: .265/.361/.401, 121 wRC+, 12.6% BB rate, 22.1% K rate

Those numbers painted a picture of who Lowe was: a solid, disciplined hitter with average batted ball data, good on-base skills, and not a ton of power. The kind of player you pencil into the middle of the lineup without thinking twice. So, it seemed fair to assume that’s the version of Lowe the Nats would get in 2025.

12 games into Nate Lowe’s 2025 season

I know it is still early into the season but Lowe has looked like a completely different guy. He has suddenly become one of the most intriguing hitters in baseball, through 2025 so far he’s slashing:

• .244/.306/.511 (.817 OPS), 3 HR, 116 wRC+

The surface numbers presented here are solid, but what is interesting are the underlying metrics.

• 93.7 mph average exit velocity (Top 10% of MLB)
• 20.0% barrel rate (Top 3% of MLB)
• 56.0% hard-hit rate (Top 4% of MLB)

According to Baseball Savant, Lowe has seen the largest increase in HardHit% from 2024 to 2025. The second largest increase in average exit velocity and the second largest increase in barrel rate. That would suggest a power breakout but it gets weirder. Despite this surge in contact quality, Lowe’s bat speed is down by 1.5 mph from last season. He is swinging the bat way slower but hitting the ball harder, which makes no sense.

Plate Approach

The answer might lie in his approach. This year, Lowe has become noticeably more aggressive at the plate. Way different than his days down in Texas.

• Swing%: up from 42.7% to 48.2%
• Zone Swing%: up from 60.1% to 64.0%
• Chase Rate (O-Swing%): up from 23.9% to 45.9% (well below league average)

He’s swinging more often, especially outside the zone and it’s come at a serious cost to his plate discipline. His walk rate has taken a huge dip (from 12.6% to 8.2%), and his contact metrics have plummeted:

• Contact Rate: 57.7% (League Avg ~74%)
• Zone Contact: 83.8%
• Chase Contact: 51.8%

The result of this? Lowe currently has a strikeout rate of 40.8%, which ranks in the bottom 2% of the league.

Recapping what we’ve learned

Lowe has done a 180 when it comes to his plate approach. He is swinging more than ever, he is hitting the ball harder than he has before. While walking way less and striking out more than almost anyone in baseball. When I first realized that Lowe switched up his plate approach it was before the Dodgers series.

Thankfully, his numbers stayed true and did not change too much so I could write a story on him. That being said his walk rate went up from 6.6% to 8.2% after the Dodgers series. Meaning we still have a lot of baseball to go and Lowe’s new approach might not last the whole season. I guess we have to keep watching as the year goes along!