Since I love prospect lists, I’ll write a reaction piece to every Nats prospect list ranking that I see this off-season. What else are we gonna talk about during the lockout?
We already saw the Baseball America top 10 list, which I found laughable for a number of reasons. Let’s see how Prospects361 and its author Rich Wilson did.
Prospects361 does seem to have a fantasy focus, which means we’ll see some oddities in the rankings. Fantasy focused sites generally over-rank several types of players:
- relievers who have closer ability (since “saves” are generally one of the 5 prime pitching fantasy categories)
- very, very young prospects and/or brand new prospects which get snapped up in Dynasty leagues
- positions that are scarce (SS, C, 3B to a certain extent)
Here’s a direct link to his ranking, which i’ve represented in the table below.
| Name | Position | Acquired | Rank |
| Cade Cavalli | RHP (Starter) | 2020 1st | 1 |
| Keibert Ruiz | C | 2014 IFA | 2 |
| Brady House | SS | 2021 1st | 3 |
| Andry Lara | RHP (Starter) | 2019 IFA | 4 |
| Yasel Antuna | SS | 2016 IFA | 5 |
| Jackson Rutledge | RHP (Starter) | 2019 1st | 6 |
| Jeremy De La Rosa | OF (corner) | 2018 IFA | 7 |
| Armando Cruz | SS | 2020 IFA | 8 |
| Cole Henry | RHP (Starter) | 2020 2nd | 9 |
| Gerardo Carrillo | RHP (Starter) | 2016 IFA | 10 |
| Aldo Ramirez | RHP (Starter) | 2018 IFA | 11 |
| Daylen Lile | OF | 2021 2nd | 12 |
| Donovan Casey | OF (corner) | 2017 20th | 13 |
| Roismar Quintana | OF (CF) | 2019 IFA | 14 |
| Cristian Vaquero | OF (CF) | 2021 IFA | 15 |
So, some reactions.
- The same top 3 as nearly every other pundit shop right now, though he has Cavalli over Ruiz. That’s surprising since most legit ranks have Ruiz over Cavalli given Cavalli’s well known challenges, plus Ruiz is a catcher.
- He has Andry Lara a bit higher than most others at #4, but I don’t think its unwarranted. The guy as an 18yr old pitched well in the GCL, which is now a much, much older league than it used to be. He may have had a 4.54 ERA, but his peripherals were pretty good.
- Sigh; Yasel Antuna at #5. He’s still listed as a SS, which we know isn’t gonna happen as Antuna has already been banished to the OF. My concerns with Antuna being this high are well documented. All i’ll say is this: he better be one hell of a better hitter than he’s shown in 2022.
- Even after his crap season, Jackson Rutledge sits above Cole Henry, which is laughable at this point. Perhaps he made this list before seeing anything that Henry was doing in Arizona.
- He’s definitely high on Armando Cruz, One homer and a .232 BA in 177 DSL at bats this year after signing a ridiculously high signing bonus ($3.9M). So far, bust potential.
- He’s about where the industry is on the guys in the 10-13 range, so no comment there.
- Quintana: he’s definitely high on this guy. Quintana barely played this year due to an apparent injury, so this ranking and his potential is entirely that; potential.
- Lastly, and I hate it when prospect ranking shops do this, he lists a player we’re only rumored to be signing in Vaquero. This is entirely fan service to dynasty fantasy players looking for some deep round pickup.
Omissions:
- No mention of Joan Adon, who BA had #7. Now, i’m also on record being somewhat skeptical of Adon being a 7th ranked prospect, but i’m ok with him being a bit further down in the 13-15 range.
- Slightly surprised there’s no Matt Cronin at the edges of his roster, given that Cronin is a closer candidate. It might be due to Cronin’s injury this year.
- Not much else to quibble about.
Thoughts?