The 23-year-old is among the favorites in American League MVP betting odds, but will he make it back in time for Opening Day?
Gunnar Henderson fits the mold of a modern day MLB superstar. He’s fast, he hits for power, and he gives 100 percent on every play. The 23-year-old earned American League Rookie of the Year honors in 2023 and followed it up with a nine WAR season last year.
Henderson qualifies as the middle child of Baltimore’s three consecutive top prospects, but he’s the one that finished fourth in AL MVP voting a year ago. Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Jackson Holliday represent one of the most talented young cores in recent memory, and Henderson may just be the best of the trio.
The former second-round pick—that’s still crazy by the way—played 159 games last season, but he suffered an early injury this spring. Henderson strained his right intercostal while making a jumping catch in the field on February 27.
Henderson took batting practice for the first time on Tuesday, but he has yet to return to game action. The injury is not expected to significantly impact his 2025 campaign. His status for Opening Day will remain a question until he returns to the lineup, although there’s no reason to tweak his season projections at the moment.
ZiPS anticipates a bit of a power dip for Henderson this season. The projections call for 28 home runs over 152 games. The full projections can be found below.
Gunnar Henderson: 152 G, .279 BA, .359 OBP, .495 SLG, 28 HR, 107 R, 97 RBI, 16 SB, 144 wRC+, 6.1 WAR
The 152 games played are the highest for any Orioles player. Henderson tallied 28 homers in his rookie season before leaving the yard 37 times in 2024. ZiPS doesn’t attribute the drop to a shift in Henderson’s approach at the plate, as the projected .279 batting average would fall just below his .281 average from last season.
These are still projections worthy of an All Star player, yet they don’t exactly scream AL MVP. How does ZiPS expect the competition to perform? The projections call for Aaron Judge to lead the league with 46 home runs. Henderson’s 28 would rank 18th in baseball, but his total line ranks right up there with the best in the business. Henderson’s projected WAR would trail only Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Juan Soto.
ZiPS projects Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr. to tie for fourth with 6.1 WAR. Witt qualifies as a natural rival after being selected 40 picks ahead of Henderson in the 2019 MLB draft. For what it’s worth, ZiPS anticipates 29 homers, 102 RBIs, and a .288 average for Witt Jr.
There’s plenty more to Gunnar’s game than just the long ball, but that feels like a fine place to start. Let’s stick with a round number. Do you project Henderson to post a second-consecutive 30+ home run season?
The case for the over
The Orioles could use a few extra big flies without Anthony Santander, and they have plenty of players capable of helping out. It’s fair to expect a few more long balls with the left field wall inching in, and even the left-handed-hitting Henderson could benefit with a few Oppo Tacos.
At only 23, Gunnar might only be scratching the surface of his prime. He’s played the adjustment game with MLB pitchers for a pair of seasons, and I like his chances moving forward.
The case for the under
It’s unclear how the lack of a normal spring training could impact the shortstop. Every player needs at least some form of a ramp up period, but it’s not like Henderson needed to overhaul his swing. Additional concern may have been warranted if the injury occurred to Rutschman after his rough second half, but the former number one pick entered yesterday hitting .364 (12-for-33) this spring.
Even with a player of Henderson’s caliber, there’s no reason to rush a guy back for the first of 162 games. The Orioles should be careful with their franchise player, and Brandon Hyde has reiterated that Henderson needs game action before his debut.