The second half of 2024 was brutal for the Orioles backstop. Projections expect him to be back to normal in the season ahead.
The 2024 season was poised to be the one where Adley Rutschman cemented himself as the unquestioned top catcher in baseball. The former first overall pick had been on a linear path since his days at Oregon State, graduating from elite prospect to outstanding rookie, and then bonafide star. Another all-star season is all it would take for his reputation to be secured.
Everything was going to plan early on. Through June, Rutschman owned a .294/.350/.471 slash line with 15 home runs. He was on a path to set career highs in most offensive numbers, and even earned the starting nod for the AL in the upcoming Midsummer Classic.
But something changed from July through the end of the season. All of Rutschman’s numbers cratered. He posted a paltry .194/.278/.286 slash line in that time, with just four home runs. That wasn’t the result of bad luck either. His exit velocities and hard hit rates dipped in the second half of the season as well. He was just…bad.
Some have speculated that Rutschman was playing through an injury. It did seem as though his offensive slide corresponded with a late June game in which he took a foul ball off of his right hand while catching. But Rutschman never took an IL stint, and the Orioles have been unanimous in saying that he wasn’t dealing with anything more than the general wear and tear of a baseball season.
That may be true, but then it would seem far too coincidental that any attempt to quantity his power output (home runs, exit velocity, barrel rate, etc.) reveals a diminished player in the late summer.
Rutschman took a step backwards on the defensive side of things as well in 2024. While his Statcast page revealed him to be an elite blocker of the ball behind the plate, his framing was abysmal, while his work against baserunners is middle of the road. All of that netted out to be him a zero sum with the leather after being an above-average defender in his two prior seasons.
The Orioles were trying to find a solution to all of these things by year’s end. Rutschman DH’ed fairly regularly while James McCann spent more time behind the dish. That included Game 1 of the AL Wild Card game with ace Corbin Burnes on the mound. Brandon Hyde opted for McCann as his battery mate, and things went well on that side of the ball.
No satisfactory conclusion exists for what Rutschman experienced last year. Struggles happen in baseball, but the prolonged nature of his slump and the refusal of the organization to say that he was actually hurt is odd.
Unsurprisingly, the Orioles did not act like a team that needed a new starting catcher this offseason. They signed Gary Sánchez as the backup. He will take the place of James McCann and give the team a little more offensive upside on the days that he catches, but won’t threaten Rutschman’s place as the top backstop.
This is a perfectly fine strategy to pursue. Rutschman was poor in the second half of 2024. But all of his ability didn’t disappear overnight. In all likelihood, he was hurt, and the Orioles are just being weird about sharing that information. Hopefully he gets back on track in 2025.
The projections
- ZiPS: 5.0 WAR, .260/.344/.422, 17 HR, .333 wOBA, 121 wRC+
- Steamer: 4.7 WAR, .261/.349/.426, 20 HR, .338 wOBA, 124 wRC+
The two projection systems are almost in lockstep. They agree that Rutschman will get back to the form he saw for the entirety of 2023, when he posted a 127 wRC+ over 154 games. The Orioles would be happy with that.
The case for the over
There is plenty of evidence to suggest that Rutschman was genuinely hurt from July on last year. Prior to that, he was on pace to put up career marks in just about every important offensive category. His wRC+ in each of the fist three months of the season were 135, 122, 145. He would have smashed this over if he simply repeated that—or even dipped slightly—for the next three months.
Instead, he cratered, seemingly out of nowhere. In all likelihood, something was bothering the catcher, and he should hopefully have sorted all of that out this offseason to get back into form in 2025
The case for the under
Whatever happened to Rutschman in late June, he felt well enough to keep on playing every single day. No IL stint, and no admission from anyone within the Orioles that anything was wrong. Rutschman was in Hyde’s lineup nearly every day. So we cannot entirely discount what he did from July on, and what he did was brutal to watch.
Also, it should be noted that a 120 wRC+ is really, really good, especially for a catcher. Only one qualified catcher (William Contreras, 131) had an wRC+ of 120 or better in 2024. No one else was above 117. Rutschman gets judged on a different scale because his baseline expectations are so much higher than just about anyone else at the position, but it is possible for him to have a solid season and also fall short of this number.