The loss of Félix Bautista still looms large, but the depth of the O’s relief group has been impressive. There is reason to believe they will get even better.
It was a bad weekend for Criag Kimbrel. He blew two saves—both of which resulted in Orioles losses—and he is now dealing with back tightness. It remains to be determined if the closer will require an IL stint, which would be a problem for an Orioles bullpen that entered the season as a question mark, To this point, the group has been solid but erratic.
The unit’s 4.02 ERA ranks 18th in MLB, but they fare far better in terms of FIP (11th, 3.74) and xFIP (3rd, 3.39). Keegan Akin has been unexpectedly excellent with a rate of 12.46 strikeouts per nine innings and a bullpen-best 0.6 fWAR. Danny Coulombe has largely been great, striking 12.19 per nine and walking 1.74 per nine. Yennier Cano has been less than his all-star version, but still good with a 2.45 ERA over 14 appearances. Even Kimbrel had been stellar going into this past weekend. While the group lacks an unmitigated stud in Félix Bautista, they have instead shown impressive depth.
Milke Baumann has been the only out-and-out disappointment to this point. His 5.06 ERA is the worst on the team (non-Yohan Ramirez division), and it’s not exactly the result of bad luck. He’s giving up oodles of hard contact and walking far too many. That combination is going to be a bad time.
Dillon Tate is having a different experience from Baumann in that his top line numbers are good: 2.84 ERA, a 61.1% groundball rate, and mostly weak contact. That is how Tate has historically made his living. But he has been a more extreme version of himself in that so far this season he is getting almost no whiffs (dropping from 23.2% in 2022 to only 11.5% this year). At the same time he has had issues with walks (4.26 walks per nine). And while he tends to have low BABIPs due to his high groundball rate, this year it is suspiciously low at .171, which could be due for some regression.
Jacob Webb finds himself somewhere in-between the standouts and stragglers. The righty has been perfectly serviceable with a 2.25 ERA/3.01 FIP over 14 appearances, a strikeout rate of nine per nine and 2.25 walks per nine. He has successfully inched away from the fringes of the roster for now, but a bad week could put any reliever right back there.
If you had told an Orioles fan back when spring training was wrapping up that this is the sort of production they could expect from the bullpen, the vast majority would have taken it with no issue. At that time, the unit was short a few arms as a result of the injury crisis in the rotation. As long as they survived the early part of the season without imploding that would be a success. It’s fair to say that they have been strides better than that.
Fast forward to late April and the team’s entire pitching picture is about to change. Kyle Bradish is expected back this week, an early return from his UCL injury. John Means likely wrapped up his rehab on Sunday and looked good while doing it. Cionel Pérez (oblique) is in the midst of his rehab assignment and will probably return soon as well. Tyler Wells is on the mend too, but he could be a few weeks away as he continues to rest his inflamed elbow.
Bradish and Means are expected to go right back into the Orioles rotation this week. In all likelihood that will push Cole Irvin and sudden sensation Albert Suárez into some other role to be determined. Pérez may have his rehab assignment drawn out simply to give the team time to sort out the roster. But he should eventually regain a spot in the bullpen himself, although the unit isn’t exactly clamoring for another southpaw given the success of Akin and Coulombe. The team has too many good pitchers and not enough roster spots for them, always a nice problem to have.
So, how do they make room for Bradish, Means, and Pérez all in short order.
The first move seems rather straightforward. Ramirez is the newest face and he has struggled (7.20 ERA over five innings). There is a chance that if he is DFA’ed that he would remain in the organization, but regardless he has to be the first player moved to make room.
Next, there are the IL considerations. Is Kimbrel hurt enough to need an IL stint after leaving Sunday’s game early? While that would not be an ideal outcome, it would allow the team to retain talent and create temporary roster space. There could also be someone else dealing with something nagging that requires some time of the shelf.
Beyond that, there are no easy decisions. The Orioles are permitted to carry only 13 pitchers, and they are at that max right now. The only pitchers on the major league roster with minor league options remaining are Cano, Akin, Tate, Grayson Rodriguez, and Dean Kremer. Of that group, the only one that the Orioles could really consider sending down right now is Tate given how poor some of his peripherals have been. But even that feels like a stretch.
Instead, it could come down to the likes of Suárez, Webb, or Baumann, a trio that is out of options and closer to being the “26th man” than any of the other pitchers on the roster.
The Orioles’ front office won’t get overly wrapped up in the magical story that Suárez has in returning to the big leagues after years overseas. But they might look fondly at his top-tier fastball that has a nearly 40% whiff rate, and the possibility that it could play up even more in shortened outings.
Webb isn’t exciting, but big league rosters need middle inning pitchers that are going to get the job done. The 30-year-old has done just that, and there would be no real justification for letting him go.
Baumann feels like the odd man out in this scenario. The big righty has pitched in parts of the last four seasons. Last year was his best (3.76 ERA, 64.2 IP), and it still wasn’t good enough to be part of the ALDS roster.
Now, it is possible that no truly tough decisions are necessary just yet. An IL stint for Kimbrel would create the space needed for Bradish and Means to get onto the roster this week. And there are no reports that Pérez is ready to return just yet, so we could still be more than a week away from that happening. A lot of things can take place in between now and then.
In short, the bullpen has been better than expected, and it should only get stronger with the team getting healthier this week. However, the need for a game-changing back-end reliever remains. It will be interesting to see how Mike Elias and the O’s front office approach efforts to improve the group as the season goes on.