The Orioles, once considered to have the best prospect pipeline in baseball, now rank a distant 20th, according to Keith Law.
Good morning, Camden Chatters.
Over the past few years of the Mike Elias era, one thing Orioles fans have always been able to count on is an O’s farm system that’s chock-full of promising prospects. For the last half-decade their young minor league talent has been the envy of baseball, consistently ranked in MLB’s top three by most experts. It’s been every bit the flourishing pipeline that Elias envisioned when he joined the club after the 2018 season.
For now, though, that pipeline is running a bit drier than usual, at least according to The Athletic’s prospect pundit, Keith Law. In his ranking of MLB farm systems, Law placed the Orioles a distant 20th, grouping them in the fifth tier (out of seven) of major league clubs. That’s quite a fall from their former perch atop the prospect throne.
Law does still have three Orioles among his top 100 prospects, including two in the top 20, with Samuel Basallo ranked #3, Coby Mayo #18, and Enrique Bradfield Jr. #82. But he doesn’t seem overly enthused by the rest of the O’s minor league talent, especially the club’s lack of pitching depth.
A positive way to look at this is that the reason the Orioles are a bit short on high-end prospects is because they’ve graduated so many of them to the majors the last three years. Adley Rutschman. Gunnar Henderson. Grayson Rodriguez. Jordan Westburg. Colton Cowser. Jackson Holliday. The list goes on. Their minor league system has been practically bursting at the seams the last few years, and by now almost all those guys have all arrived and played big roles in the majors. That’s a success story, for sure.
And as those youngsters have turned the O’s into contenders, the club has slid further down in the draft order. As Law writes, “it turns out that it is much harder to find good players when you draft near the end of the first round than when you’re in the top five.” Last year the Orioles’ first pick was #22; in 2023 it was #17. This year they won’t pick until 19th, though they do have three of the first 31 picks.
Still, the fact is that the Orioles’ farm system isn’t as jam-packed with blue-chippers as it used to be. Assuming Mayo gets enough at-bats this year to graduate from prospect status, that depth will be tested even further. It would be nice if a number of O’s youngsters erupt with breakout 2025 seasons that put them firmly on the prospect scene, and if some high-potential but high-risk players — like last year’s first rounder, Vance Honeycutt — take the leap into top-prospect status.
Organizationally, the Orioles are still in a fine spot. They’ve got a great young core in the majors and figure to be contenders for years to come. Hopefully by next season, they’ll again have a robust farm system that will keep the talent pipeline flowing.
Links
This, that and the other – School of Roch
New Orioles community ambassador Adam Jones looks forward to hanging out with the players and giving them some positive energy. Bring back the pies. BRING BACK THE PIES!
Jon Meoli: The Orioles can use their legs to give their offense a jolt in 2025 – The Baltimore Banner
Meoli finds it curious that the Orioles more or less abandoned their speed game during their second-half offensive struggles last year. Come to think of it, yeah. Maybe when Jorge Mateo got hurt, all his teammates decided to stop running out of solidarity.
Re-Revisiting the Trevor — TREVOR, not Taylor — Rogers Trade | FanGraphs Baseball
Michael Baumann (not that one) just can’t stop thinking about the Trevor Rogers trade. Don’t shoot the messenger, but he still doesn’t foresee a particularly good result for Rogers and the Orioles.
Looking at the chances for an O’s fast start to 2025 and another Jackson Holliday take – Steve Melewski
Best of luck to Steve, whose time with MASN will be ending tomorrow. He’s been an institution in writing about the Orioles for the last two decades, especially his comprehensive minor league coverage, which was second to none. Here’s hoping he’ll land on his feet with another outlet.
Orioles birthdays and history
Is today your birthday? Happy birthday! And happy 31st birthday to lefty Cole Irvin, who spent the past two seasons with the Orioles. Irvin seems like a swell guy and did a lot of good in the Baltimore community but had trouble finding a role on the O’s pitching staff. He’ll spend the 2025 season overseas after signing with the KBO’s Doosan Bears two months ago. Today is also the birthday of 1998 O’s righty Joel Bennett (55).
On this date one year ago, there was much celebrating all across Birdland as the Angelos family officially announced the selling of the Orioles for $1.725 billion to a group led by Baltimore native David Rubenstein. The sale, which was approved by MLB owners three months later, ended the Angelos family’s often-rocky two-decade ownership of the team.
Rubenstein, with his promise to raise payroll and his hobby of tossing hats to the Camden Yards crowd, quickly became a popular figure among O’s fans, though the bloom has come off the rose somewhat after he spoke in favor of an MLB salary cap and eschewed any top-shelf signings this offseason. He’ll need to hope he’s back in fans’ good graces before his bobblehead night at Oriole Park on April 20.