The Orioles rotation was a big topic of concern in the offseason, and the first time through the rotation gave O’s fans plenty of reasons for both doubt and optimism.
The Orioles’ starting rotation was the topic of much conversation and concern leading into the 2025 season. After yesterday’s win vs the Red Sox, we’ve now seen each of the O’s first five starters make their debut in 2025. The results, as most expected, have been decidedly mixed. We’ve already seen a group of performances that include a starter throwing six innings of one-hit domination, another start failing to make it out of the 4th inning and yet another starter having to leave the game after four innings due to an apparent injury.
It’s important to remember that it is almost guaranteed that the current iteration of Baltimore’s rotation will not be O’s rotation for the full season. Grayson Rodriguez is expected back in either April or May. Kyle Bradish could be back in July. If any of the strugglers from the first trip through the rotation continue to struggle, Kyle Gibson could conceivably be ready before the end of April.
Also worth remembering is that one bad start at the beginning of the year is not necessarily predictive of a bad season. Zach Eflin, on Opening Day for the Rays, started last season with a 6 ER, 3 HR-allowed stinker, and yet 2024 was the second-best season of his career. In his second full start of 2023, Bradish gave up seven runs in only 2.1 innings—yet went on to finish Top 5 in Cy Young.
All that being said, sometimes overreaction and way-too-early analysis is exactly what we want and need as baseball fans. So let’s grade each Orioles starter’s first start of 2025.
Zach Eflin: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 Ks in a 12-2 W at Toronto, 3/27
Grade: A-
The prevailing offseason sentiment about Eflin was that he didn’t really earn his role as the Orioles’ ace and was more so the Orioles’ only option after the departure of Corbin Burnes and the injuries to Rodriguez and Bradish. Eflin put that noise to bed with an Opening Day start that was even better than the box score suggests.
Eflin came to the Orioles from the Rays last July as a pitcher renowned for his control, but one who was also too hittable at times. The O’s largely fixed his hittability concern by getting Eflin to throw his cutter and curveball more and his sinker less, resulting in arguably the best two-month stretch of Eflin’s career.
The 30-year-old continued where he left off last season against the Blue Jays, though with a slightly different approach. The cutter was still his most-used pitcher, but his secondary offerings were pretty evenly split between his sinker, curveball and sweeper. Eflin did allow a fair amount of hard contact—eight hard-hit balls in 21 batters faced—but was fortunate that most of those hard-hit balls were right at Orioles fielders.
While the two hit over six innings statline largely speaks for itself, there are still areas for Eflin to improve. Eflin is at his best when he’s keeping most of the balls put in play in the infield. For his career, he has a 44% ground ball rate vs. 24%/25% flyball/line drive rates. Against Toronto, he only managed a 33% ground ball rate against a 44% flyball rate.
Reversing those rates may come down to switching up his breaking ball usage. Against Eflin’s curveball, the Jays had seven balls put in play and two hard-hit balls, including Andres Gimenez’ two-run homer. With his sweeper, Eflin registered both of his strikeouts, five of his six swings and misses and only gave up one single and zero other balls in play.
Charlie Morton: 3.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 Ks in 8-2 L at Toronto, 3/28
Grade: D
Morton threw his curveball more than 40% of the time each of the last two seasons. Any time his Uncle Charlie isn’t working as expected, results will tend to suffer. That was the case Friday night in Toronto, where Morton admitted post-game that he didn’t get as many swings and misses as he expected.
The numbers support Morton’s disappointment. Last year he induced a whiff on 34% of his curveballs. The two seasons before that, his whiff rate was up at 42% on his breaking ball. In his first outing as an Oriole, he generated a whiff on only 18% of the curves Toronto swung at. The oldest player to pitch for the Orioles in over 70 years also struggled to throw his curveball for strikes, locating only 30% of his curves in the zone, vs. 42% last season.
A Charlie Morton that can’t throw his curveball for strikes or get batters to swing through his curveball is simply unlikely to be a good pitcher. Blue Jays hitters were able to just sit on any pitches in the lower third of the zone and spray them all over the field. Morton’s track record suggests he won’t have that bad of a curveball day in most starts. However, many more starts like that may put Morton at the head of the chopping block.
Dean Kremer: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 6 Ks in a 9-5 W at Toronto, 3/29
Grade: D+
Kremer grades out slightly better than Morton because A) the Orioles won his start, B) he lasted deeper into the game and C) he showed good swing and miss stuff. However, allowing five runs in 5.1 innings will never be a good start, let alone the type of outing you’re hoping for from your third starter.
Kremer is at his best when he’s locating his fastball and cutter in the zone, and then using his cutter, splitter and curveball to expand the zone once he’s ahead. Against the Blue Jays, everything was left up and over the plate, even his secondary offerings. He gave up three straight hits to start the game on two-strike cutters and sinkers left much too up in the zone. The home run he gave up to Andrés Giménez was not even a particularly bad pitch—a fastball at the very top of the zone—but was representative of the problems he kept running into by leaving the ball up.
The 29-year-old is a notorious tinkerer, so his approach against Toronto isn’t likely to be the same approach next time in Kansas City. His splitter was his best pitch in 2024, but he only threw it nine times in Toronto, suggesting he may not have had a good feel for it. If he can get the splitter and curveball working beneath the zone, we should see a better Kremer.
Tomoyuki Sugano: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 K in 3-1 loss at Toronto, 3/31
Grade: C
A more fitting grade for Sugano may have been an “incomplete” after he was forced to exit with what appeared to be cramps in his pitching hand. Prior to his exit, though, it was definitely a mixed bag for the Japanese righty.
Sugano is known for his control and pitching to create weak contact, but we saw none of that in his first major league inning. He walked Bo Bichette to lead off the bottom of the first and then gave up three hard-hit balls that resulted in a near HR, a double and a two-run single.
The 35-year-old rookie settled down from there, getting six groundouts in the next 12 batters he faced. He still gave up many more hard-hit balls than you want to see from a pitcher pitching to contact. However, his command was also clearly improving as grew into the start. Had he pitched into the 5th, we’d have seen him go through the order a third time and get a more complete idea of his ability to adapt to major league hitting throughout a start.
Cade Povich: 4.1 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 8 Ks in an 8-5 W vs Boston, 3/31
Grade: C+
Ben McDonald said after Povich left the game in the 5th on Monday that he thought the lefty pitched better than his final line showed. His defense let him down somewhat in the third, leading to his third earned run, and the grade might honestly be higher if it were only 2 ERs in 4.1 innings instead of three.
Povich showed largely good fastball command as well as a curveball that was far and away his best secondary pitch against right-handers. We didn’t see a lot of the kick changeup that Povich found success with in spring training and his sweeper didn’t generate any swings and misses, but overall the stuff was good.
Where the 24-year-old struggled was getting quick, efficient outs. The Red Sox worked the count over and over again, as Povich averaged nearly five pitches per plate appearance. The second-year pitcher clearly had more faith in his fastball deep in counts than any of his secondary pitches. However, that allowed Red Sox hitters to sit fastball and drive the ball at the end of long ABs. The 8 Ks and an overall improved arsenal were a positive sign, but Povich needs to be more efficient if he wants to entrench himself in this rotation.