So far, the O’s have not looked like the World Series contender they hoped to be entering this season. Even worse, their specific struggles extend back to last summer. But that doesn’t mean they are without hope.
The 2025 Orioles are built to win baseball games in one way: The offense scores a bunch of runs, the starting pitchers do just enough through five or so innings, and the bullpen locks things down. Through 10 games, that formula has proved faulty.
In particular, the lineup has been under fire for early inconsistency. This was the unit that everyone expected to do the heavy lifting, creating wiggle room for the flawed rotation to operate. Instead, it has been a boom or bust outfit that frustrates on a regular basis.
On the whole, the Orioles bats seem fine. They are in the top 10 of MLB in runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, and wRC+. It’s not as productive as it was early in 2024, but still decent.
Part of the problem is the distribution of that output. They have scored two or fewer runs in five of their 10 games. In four other games, they have scored eight or more runs. There has been just one middling game this year, when they lost 8-4 to the Red Sox on Thursday.
That is the sort of production that makes your own pitching staff almost irrelevant. You are going to lose—as the Orioles have—almost every single game where you fail to score three runs. Conversely, you can have a staff full of Triple-A arms and win every time—again, as the Orioles have—when you score 8+ runs. Finding some sort of balance and consistency tends to be the path towards success.
And let’s be clear that while being a top 10 offense is decent in the abstract, that is worse than what these Orioles are supposed to be. They have the tools to be a run-scoring juggernaut to be considered among the league’s absolute best. So far, that has not shown through.
On the pitching side of things, outcomes have been about as bad as we feared they would be for the starting staff. Their 5.62 ERA is 26th in MLB. Opponents are hitting .301 against them, and they have a cumulative WHIP of 1.49.
But lately, they are delivering the sorts of outings that should set up the Orioles for success if the offense is working as intended.
Cade Povich gave up four runs over six innings on Sunday. Tomoyuki Sugano allowed just one run over 5.1 innings on Saturday. Dean Kremer coughed up just three runs (two earned) in 4.1 innings on Friday. Zach Eflin tossed six innings of three-run ball on Wednesday.
The Orioles won just one of those starts mostly because the offense didn’t show up. That’s not to say that the starters aren’t a problem. They are in that they can’t really “win” games on their own. But they are doing pretty much what they were expected and built to do. So, it’s tough to levy much ire at the players themselves.
The lack of close games has made the bullpen largely a non-factor to this point. The Orioles are the only team in the league without a save opportunity. But most of the pitchers have been decent to this point.
Seranthony Domínguez is yet to allow a run and has struck out six over 4.2 innings. Gregory Soto’s eight strikeouts are the most on the staff, and they have come in just four innings. Bryan Baker has arguably been the team’s best reliever. He is yet to allow a walk or a run while striking out seven in 5.1 innings.
The two guys worth worrying about are Félix Bautista and Cionel Pérez.
Bautista is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and the team is being cautious with him. He has pitched just twice, one good outing and one bad. So far, we have not seen the sort of game-changing velocity he showed back in 2023, but hopefully that is part of building back up.
Pérez has looked awful. Over 3.2 innings he’s got two strikeouts, six walks, seven hits, and a home run. His 19.64 ERA is an eyesore that could have him on the chopping block if he continues to struggle.
At 4-6, the Orioles are not some disaster that is already out of contention. But they have already lost valuable ground in the playoff race that they had better claw back sooner rather than later if they want to have a chance come September.
It’s reasonable to be concerned that they cannot manage to do it. From July 1 on last year, they went 38-40. Add that to their struggles so far this year, and they are 42-46 over their last 88 games. That’s a pretty chunky sample size, far more than a modest cold spell, and it paints them as a sup-par team.
But there is also some reason for optimism.
On offense, some of the players that struggled late last year have been good this year. Cedric Mullins (205 wRC+) has started the year on fire. Jordan Westburg (151 wRC+) looks recovered from his hand injury. Adley Rutschman (125 wRC+) is back to normal. And Jackson Holliday (150 wRC+) is no longer scuffling. Plus, Gunnar Henderson is just getting into the lineup after missing the spring with an intercostal injury. Once he is ramped up, he will transform the lineup.
The overall offensive production that the Orioles need to win more games is already here. The team just needs to hope that the timing of that production evens out as more games are played.
The starting staff has room for growth, and they should get it. Eflin has been as dependable as you hoped, giving a good base to the staff. Povich is boasting a 1.34 FIP and and 2.97 xFIP, far better than his actual 6.10 ERA. Sugano looked like the veteran that he is over the weekend, mixing pitches and staying ahead in the count. Charlie Morton is loading up on strikeouts (14.04 K/9) and has been unlucky (.478 BABIP). And at some point, Grayson Rodriguez will return.
At the same time, they do probably still need the ace type that the fans have been clamoring for. Maybe that will be a healthy Kyle Bradish in the second half of the year, or maybe Mike Elias will finally trade a prospect.
And while the bullpen is yet to be tested, they are showing solid depth. If Bautista needs to be handled with kid gloves, there are plenty of other options to close games or pitching in high-leverage situations. That should give the team some confidence once close games start to be more of a regularity.
Elias built this team with the regular season in mind. That means battling through some ups and downs. So far, it’s been mostly downs. Despite that, these Orioles are still right in the thick of things with plenty of time to get better.
That doesn’t make your concerns unwarranted. After all, this is part of a pattern that goes back to 2024. But there are enough encouraging signs—for now—that suggest these Orioles are still good enough to compete.