He may only be here for one year, but at long last the Orioles have added a bonafide number one to their pitching staff.
How he got here: Acquired from the Brewers for left-handed pitcher DL Hall, infield prospect Joey Ortiz, and a 2024 Competitive Balance Round A draft pick (#34 overall), 2/1/24
Fans in Baltimore have begged and pleaded for a rotation ace ever since Mike Mussina left after the 2000 season. High end talent has roamed the clubhouse in the form of Jake Arrieta and Kevin Gausman, but it never truly clicked for them in the Charm City. Instead, staffs through the years have been led by solid arms like Chris Tillman, Jeremy Guthrie, and Rodrigo López. Steady contributors all, but a clear step below the elite at their position.
Heading into this past offseason, Orioles GM Mike Elias was transparent in saying that he wanted to add a top-tier arm. Months of rumors followed. The O’s were said to be talks with the White Sox for Dylan Cease or the Marlins for Jesús Luzardo. It seemed they were only interested in players with years of control remaining. Any pending free agent was off the table.
Then, out of nowhere, it was reported that the Orioles had made a deal. It wasn’t one of the long-rumored connections, and it wasn’t a player with years of control, but it was unquestionably an ace. The Orioles had added Corbin Burnes.
Burnes comes to Baltimore with a pedigree unfamiliar in these parts. He has finished in the top 10 of NL Cy Young voting in each of the last four seasons. That includes a 2021 campaign in which he won the award while leading the senior circuit with a 2.43 ERA, 1.63 FIP, and 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings.
His final numbers from last year weren’t as eye-popping as he had grown accustomed to, but they were still very good. Over 193.2 innings, he had a 3.39 ERA, struck out 200, and led the NL with a 1.069 WHIP.
Some context that may or may not matter this year: Burnes pitched much better on the road (2.77 ERA, 0.968 WHIP) than in Milwaukee (4.28 ERA, 1.213 WHIP). That was a continuation—albeit more severe in 2023—of what he has done throughout his career. He owns a 3.65 career home ERA and a 2.88 ERA away.
He also experienced some fairly severe handedness splits last year, which was new for him. Lefties managed just a .515 OPS whereas righties fared better at .677 OPS. Interestingly, Camden Yards is a park that gives righties absolute nightmares with the newly cavernous left field. Meanwhile, lefties get a fair shake of it, just needing to loft the ball over the out-of-town scoreboard in right field. Perhaps this change of scenery is exactly what Burnes needed to vault back atop the Cy Young voting.
Projections for Burnes in the upcoming season look like a carbon copy of his 2023 campaign. ZiPS, for example, expects him to post a 3.46 ERA over 179.2 innings while striking out 191 and posting a 1.12 WHIP. Much like a season ago with the Brewers, those numbers would likely be all star-worthy, but not quite entering serious Cy Young territory.
That shouldn’t be viewed as a disappointment though. The Orioles didn’t sign Burnes so he would win an individual award in their uniform. They signed him to lead a rotation and simultaneously raise this team’s floor and ceiling. He checks all of those boxes.
Burnes’ experience and aura could be important for members of this pitching staff that are still developing. Kyle Bradish has said that he tries to model his game after Burnes. The two have undoubtedly chatted since then as Burnes has snagged Bradish’s jersey number. Grayson Rodriguez will certainly be able to learn something from a power righty with so much success. Not to mention any other youngsters in big league camp.
Of course, it does need to be mentioned that Burnes’ stay in Baltimore could mirror that of the other veteran pitchers that have come before him. While the O’s moved on from the likes of Jordan Lyles and Kyle Gibson so that they could upgrade, Burnes may leave town after one season because he’s just too darn expensive.
Burnes will make $15.637 million in 2024, a number he agreed to with the Brewers back in January. It was his final year of arbitration, and he is due to hit free agency at the end of the season. Since being dealt to Baltimore, Burnes has been asked by the media about the possibility of signing an extension. Let’s just say it doesn’t sound promising.
“So obviously my focus is getting to Florida, getting to know the guys,” he said. “I think I’ve been pretty honest in that being a year away from free agency is something everyone wants to get to. Everyone wants to pick where they will play. I don’t know what kind of talks will come about. But once the season starts, we will want to focus on winning games and doing what’s best for the Orioles.”
But this is nothing new, and it’s not specific to the Orioles. Back in December, Burnes also downplayed the odds of an extension happening with any team.
“Every guy that gets this close to free agency wants to test the market to see what your true dollar amount is, see what teams really are in on you. It would have to be something that would just absolutely blow you away to get you away from testing the free agent market and being able to choose where you want to go. I think that’s one thing every player in their career wants to get to. Once you get that six years of service time — which for a lot of guys takes seven, eight, sometimes nine years to get to — you get that chance to test the market and see what your top dollar is.”
It’s a completely understandable line of thinking. These players get drafted into an organization, and then have no say in where they live for years of their professional lives. they deserve to rebuff anything less than their preference, especially a player as accomplished as Burnes.
The Orioles equally understand this, and you can be sure the relative unlikelihood that Burnes stays beyond 2024 played into their trade valuation. And if he does leave, the team will probably get compensated with a draft pick if/when he rejects the qualifying offer expected to come his way.
This won’t be a long-term relationship, but it should be a fun fling, and it’s the type of move the Orioles have needed to pull off for a long time. It made this team’s goal clear: let’s go win a World Series.
Wednesday: Kaleb Ort