The veteran will look to put an injury-plagued season behind him and show that he can still be one of the game’s elite centerfielders.
When healthy, Cedric Mullins is one of the best all-around centerfielders in MLB. He can set the table on offense, make mind-bending plays in the field, and steal bases at will. The problem for him in 2023 was that he just couldn’t stay healthy.
A nagging groin injury, which he originally suffered on May 29, required two IL stints and limited him to 116 games. The difference in Mullins pre- and post-injury was stark. Through May 29, he owned a .263/.356/.479 slash line. He returned from his first IL stint a month later. From that point on, he had a .205/.257/.357 slash line and then went 0-for-12 with three strikeouts in the playoffs.
All of that added up to a final stat line of .233/.305/.416 with 15 home runs, a 101 OPS+, and 19 stolen bases. That represented his worst season since 2020, but it still wasn’t entirely atrocious. Mullins was just so good prior to getting hurt that even with his nosedive later in the season he was still able to provide above-average output on the year.
Mullins’ role in the offense could be changing though. He appeared fifth or lower in the batting order more often than he did in the lead-off spot last season. His struggles necessitated a reduced role, but it’s reasonable to think that the best version of the 2024 Orioles relies more on Mullins’ glove than his bat while the young core bares the brunt of the offensive load.
A change like that should help Mullins. The deeper in the lineup he goes, theoretically, the more often he should hit with runners on base. He batted .194/.252/.333 with bases empty—a common occurrence for a lead-off hitter—last season. With runners of any sort on, he jumped to .301/.391/.562, and with runners in scoring position he was even better at .320/.393/.631. That isn’t a phenomenon unique to Mullins. It tends to be easier to get hits with runners on base simply due to fielder positioning and pitcher stress. But the split in performance is quite drastic for the O’s veteran.
Back to Mullins’ glove. That may be what the Orioles will want to make sure stays in the lineup more than anything. This team doesn’t have many convenient answers in centerfield behind him. Austin Hays could cover in a pinch, although it’s less than ideal. Ryan McKenna is capable in the field, but lacking at the plate and out of options. It sounds like Jorge Mateo will get a shot to show his skills in the spring. And then there is Colton Cowser, who spends most of his time in center, but is young and projects for a corner spot long term.
Meanwhile, Mullins remains an elite defender in center. His sprint speed dropped from 28.5 feet per second in 2022 to 28 feet per second in 2023, likely due to his groin injury. Despite this, he still finished in the top 10% of all fielders in outs above average, making the superhuman seem routine at times. The Orioles will need to prioritize his health, which could mean allowing one of his understudies to play more frequently in hopes that it prevents any lengthy absences this summer.
ZiPS projections:
.258/.322/.425 (.747 OPS), 17 HR, 23 SB, 106 wRC+, 3.2 fWAR
This would represent the middle ground between his injury-riddled 2023 (99 wRC+) and his steady showing in 2022 (108 wRC+). All of those fall well below his MVP-caliber showing back in 2021 (136 wRC+). However, if those projections were to come true, paired with his normally stellar glove work, both Mullins and the Orioles would be stoked.
The case for the over:
Prior to his injury last year, Mullins looked like the 2021 version of himself. He was performing like the best player on one of the league’s best teams. The only thing that could stop him was his own body. Reporting last week indicated that Mullins is back to 100%, and he has done the work to study the “biomechanics” that may have contributed to re-injury and the struggles that followed. The veteran should be trusted to bounce back.
The case for the under:
It’s concerning that Mullins suffered the same injury twice in quick succession, and his performance late in the season doesn’t exactly instill confidence that he ever got truly “healthy.” Was the offseason enough to heal? Or is this the case of a player reliant on speed starting to regress? His glove is still good enough to keep him in the lineup, but that doesn’t mean his offensive numbers will get back to where they once were.
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It’s time to give your opinion. Do you think Mullins can bounce back and be the force in the lineup that he showed himself to be early on in 2023?