The veteran transformed from a middling role player into an impact cleanup hitter in 2023, but can his magic continue this season?
If you’re anything like me, you reacted to the Orioles’ acquisition of Ryan O’Hearn last January with a yawn or a shrug. Possibly both.
At that point he had played parts of five major league seasons and been terrible in all but his first. From 2019-22 for Kansas City, O’Hearn batted a paltry .211/.282/.351 in 298 games, registering an abysmal 70 OPS+ before the fed-up Royals sent him to the O’s for cash. The Orioles threw him into a pile of fringy left-handed hitting backup first basemen along with the likes of Franchy Cordero and Lewin Díaz. O’Hearn, it seemed, was just another guy who would be jettisoned from the organization before Opening Day (as Cordero was) or spend the entire season in the minors (as Díaz did).
Instead, O’Hearn turned into one of the most unlikely, out-of-nowhere success stories of the Orioles’ magical 2023 season. Summoned from Triple-A Norfolk in April, O’Hearn started tearing the cover off the ball and then just…kept doing it. He authored some of the biggest moments of the year, including his game-tying, three-run homer off Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano in Toronto that sparked a huge three-game sweep in May. O’Hearn emerged as the Orioles’ everyday first baseman while Ryan Mountcastle was sidelined with vertigo, and played so well that he continued getting regular at-bats even after Mountcastle returned.
O’Hearn unlocked the offensive firepower that hadn’t been seen since his impressive 44-game debut in the majors in 2018, when he OPS’d .950 as a 24-year-old with the Royals. The ball was jumping off his bat last year; O’Hearn finished 2024 in the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate and 89th in average exit velocity. His 51.5 hard hit percentage was 3.5 points higher than his previous career best. The O’s clearly did their homework on O’Hearn and saw a hitter with the potential to bust out with just a few adjustments. The infield shift ban, implemented by MLB last year, certainly worked to the pull-happy O’Hearn’s advantage as well, earning him some extra hits to the right side that would have been denied by overshifted infielders in past seasons.
Still, some skeptics wondered when the other shoe would drop on O’Hearn’s 2024 success, considering his many prior years of non-performance. He did fall into a bit of a slump to end the season, going 0-for-23 in the final week as he reached a career-high 112 games played. He was 1-for-5 in the ALDS, starting only one of the three games as Texas used two southpaw starting pitchers.
This winter, the O’s signed the arbitration-eligible O’Hearn to a $3.5 million contract, with a $7.5 million option for 2025 that would buy out his first year of free agency. O’Hearn, who last year at this time was a long shot to even play for the Orioles, goes into 2024 with a roster spot comfortably secured. But what kind of season should we expect from the veteran first baseman?
ZiPS projections: .256/.307/.455, 18 HR, 1.0 fWAR
ZiPS pegs O’Hearn for a .762 OPS after he finished the 2023 season with a .289/.322/.480 line, 14 homers, and 1.4 fWAR.
The case for the over:
It’s not surprising that ZiPS predicts a regression from O’Hearn this year, given his many years of pre-Orioles non-performance, but dropping nearly 40 points from his .801 OPS in 2023 seems a bit steep. O’Hearn clearly took a big step up as a hitter once the Orioles’ development team got a hold of him, so it doesn’t seem unreasonable to think he could hover around the .800 OPS mark again this season, especially if the Birds use him almost exclusively against right-handed pitchers again.
The case for the under:
For all his attributes as a hitter, one thing that’s always going to limit his upside is that O’Hearn has never been good at taking walks. Last year was no exception, as his paltry 4.1 walk percentage put him in just the second percentile. If O’Hearn is a bit unluckier with his batting average this year, with more of his batted balls finding fielders’ gloves instead of grass, his OBP could plummet without walks to fall back on. He’d also be in danger of losing playing time to a fellow defensively limited lefty swinger, Heston Kjerstad, or other Orioles rotating through the DH spot.
**
What say you, Camden Chatters? Does O’Hearn have another strong season in store, or was his 2023 a one-and-done fluke?