The Orioles have chosen to attempt to bolster the back end of the starting rotation with their latest move.
The Orioles made another move to try to improve their starting rotation in the hours leading up to MLB’s trade deadline on Tuesday afternoon, acquiring lefty Trevor Rogers from the Miami Marlins. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal was the first to report on the deal. The price of the trade: Connor Norby AND Kyle Stowers.
This is an underwhelming trade on its face, and probably outright upsetting for anyone who is convinced of the future of either Norby or Stowers to be solid major league regular-level players. Rogers, 26, has posted a 4.53 ERA and 4.42 FIP across 21 starts this season, averaging almost exactly five innings per start. He had an excellent rookie season three years ago and has been bad, hurt, or both ever since.
A potential selling point of the trade is that Rogers is under team control through the 2026 season, so if the Orioles have correctly identified a pitcher who can help them, there’s some medium-range benefit. This was once a selling point for the Orioles acquiring Cole Irvin, which turned out to not provide any benefit to the Orioles at all.
I’m skeptical that there will ever be anything exciting about having Rogers on the team, but as far as the immediate challenge, they just need to get something better than the falling-apart Albert Suárez. Bolstering the back end also reduces the need to try to rely on either Cade Povich or Chayce McDermott.
Unless the deal is an absolute disaster, it should be able to clear that low bar. If Rogers pitches for the Orioles in the postseason, things have either gone very right or very, very wrong.
When considering baseball moves, I bring a philosophy from my past life as a political science major that comes up in campaigns: “If you’re explaining, you’re losing.” Mike Elias trades – with the sole exception of Corbin Burnes, whose value was immediately apparent – fit into the “explaining” mold, and have tended to result in losing. By “losing” I mean just judged against whether the Orioles acquired a player who appeared to fit their needs, or even an idea that might justify the trade if it played out a certain way.
You have to squint to find something that looks good. Rogers has been better in June and July after stinking in May. Going back to May 27, he’s made 11 starts and had a 3.32 ERA in that time.
Rogers’s strikeout rate is way down from when he was a Rookie of the Year runner-up and All-Star in 2021. His walk rate is slightly up. Batters are hitting him more and harder. His Statcast page can be summed up by saying that everything sucks except for his ground ball rate.
To me, it seems like this trade offers a fairly clear answer to the questions of “Why haven’t the Orioles given Stowers more of a chance?” and “Why haven’t the Orioles given Norby more of a chance?” The answer is that they didn’t like those guys as much as fans who got excited about their minor league performance did. I guess neither did the league, or their trade value would have been higher than this – not only that one of them was needed for this trade, but both.
At Triple-A this year, Norby hit 16 home runs across 80 games, with a .908 OPS. Stowers had 18 home runs in just 55 games, dropping an .877 OPS overall. Both have seen big league time with the O’s. Across bits of three seasons, Stowers is just a .643 OPS hitter, though that’s because he was bad last year. He’s been fine-to-good in limited action (19 games) this season. Norby has six hits in 32 plate appearances over nine games. Two of the hits being homers makes that feel better. He was on the Orioles 26-man roster at the time of the trade, having replace Jorge Mateo after that grotesque injury from Miami.
We all know the story with these guys. They’re blocked by seemingly-better prospects at their most natural positions. Stowers has Heston Kjerstad ahead of him in corner outfield, and Colton Cowser too, with Cowser also able to play center field. The scouting world isn’t really sure what Norby’s position is, but if it’s infield, he’s got to contend with Gunnar Henderson forcing Jackson Holliday to second base. These guys have never been able to match that kind of prospect pedigree, which doesn’t mean they won’t achieve their career big league success.
So, Rogers. The Orioles, by the reckoning of a lot of people including me, needed to get a difference-making dude for their rotation. What they got is Rogers. They gave up two big league-ready bats to do it. I’m not excited about it.
A closing stinger:
Hearing that Terrin Vavra is coming to Baltimore with Connor Norby’s exit #orioles
— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) July 30, 2024