The two-time Cy Young winner is back on the free agent market for the second straight year, and this time the Orioles might be a bidder.
For the rest of 2024, Camden Chat staff will be profiling assorted free agents, trade targets, and other potential offseason moves that could address needs for next year’s roster.
If Corbin Burnes leaves the Orioles this offseason, they’ll face the unenviable task of needing to replace a former Cy Young winner. So…how about a two-time Cy Young winner?
For the second straight year, Blake Snell is sitting on the free agent market. Last offseason there was never any chance of the Orioles signing him. Snell received (and rejected) a qualifying offer from the Padres, meaning that whichever team signed him would lose a draft pick. Snell’s agent, Scott Boras, reportedly was looking for a $200 million commitment after the lefty’s Cy Young season with San Diego. The Orioles, in the midst of an ownership change, weren’t willing to spend that kind of money for Snell…and as it turned out, neither was anybody else. Snell languished in free agency until spring training, then settled for a two-year deal with the Giants with an opt-out after year one, which he ultimately exercised.
This time around, it’s not crazy to believe the Orioles could be in the mix to sign him. Snell isn’t burdened by a qualifying offer (which free agents can’t receive more than once in their career), so signing him won’t sacrifice a draft pick. And — most importantly — the O’s have a new ownership team in place. David Rubenstein has implied he’ll be willing to open the wallet for big-name expenditures, something the John Angelos-led Orioles never did.
Snell, who turns 32 next month, is primed for a heftier contract than that last year’s make-good deal with San Francisco, but he’s also unlikely to require the kind of $200 million commitment Boras initially sought. MLB Trade Rumors predicts Snell will get a five-year, $160 million deal, noting that in the last decade, only one free agent pitcher 32 years or older (Zack Greinke) has signed for longer than a five-year deal.
Even five years, of course, is a risky bet for a pitcher on the wrong side of 30, but that estimated Snell deal is two years and $40 million less than MLBTR’s projection for Corbin Burnes (seven years, $200 million). If the O’s determine that re-signing Burnes is too rich for their blood, Snell could be a less costly, but no less talented, top-of-the-rotation alternative.
And make no mistake, Snell can still get things done on the mound. Even in a 2024 season that got off to a horrific start — with Snell posting a 9.51 ERA and making only six starts in the first three months, thanks to a lack of spring training buildup as well as two IL stints — the veteran lefty showed the dominant ace he can be when healthy. In the final three months of the season, Snell posted some truly ridiculous numbers in his 14 starts: a 1.23 ERA and a seemingly impossible .123 opponents’ batting average and .382 OPS. He struck out 114 batters in 80.1 innings during that span. Snell was nearly unhittable — and in one case literally unhittable, when he tossed a no-no against the Reds on Aug. 2.
On the strength of that out-of-this-world second half, Snell posted a career-high 12.5 K/9 and a 1.048 WHIP, his lowest in six years. His 5.6 H/9 and 0.5 HR/9 rates also matched his career bests. Those lost first three months may have dinged his value a bit, but he may have been the most dominant pitcher in baseball once he was fully healthy. He ranked in the 96th percentile or better in expected ERA, expected batting average, and strikeout percentage.
The O’s are plenty familiar with Snell’s skill set from his five years with the division rival Rays, with whom he won his first Cy Young Award in 2018. He holds a career 3.44 ERA in 47 starts against fellow AL East opponent Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays. And he has a solid track record in the playoffs, with a 3.33 ERA in 12 games (10 starts), including a dominant outing in Game 6 of the 2020 World Series in which he was infamously pulled too early. If Corbin Burnes does indeed sign elsewhere, Snell would seamlessly replace him as the Orioles’ ace and #1 postseason starter.
That’s not to say they’re the same pitcher. Burnes and Snell come about their dominance in different ways. While Burnes’s strikeout rate has been slipping for four straight years, he’s a durable hurler with excellent command. Snell has the more impressive swing-and-miss stuff, but durability and command are not exactly his hallmarks. Whereas Burnes averaged 6.07 innings per start in 2024, Snell clocked in at just 5.2, matching his career mark. He’s not usually going to give a lot of length, which puts a bit of extra pressure on the O’s bullpen. Then again, if he’s consistently handing them a lead to work with, that might not be a big problem.
Snell’s other notable bugaboo is walks. His lifetime 4.1 BB/9 rate isn’t ideal for an ace, and it’s been 3.2 or higher in every season of his career. That’s a major factor in Snell failing to pitch deep into games. Still, because he gives up so few hits and homers, the walks generally don’t cost him many runs. In his second Cy Young season in 2023, he walked five batters per nine innings and still posted a league-leading 2.25 ERA. It might be maddening to watch at times, but he gets the job done.
I’m not holding my breath that the Orioles, even with Rubenstein at the helm, will outbid the largest-market teams for Snell’s services. Nor do we know if Mike Elias and the O’s front office would be comfortable making the long-term commitment Snell is looking for. But it’s fun to dream, isn’t it?