With other frontline starting pitchers quickly coming off the board, the Padres’ ace might be an unexpected option for the O’s.
Look, folks. The Orioles need an ace. You know it. I know it. The Orioles know it.
But boy, was that point hammered home at the just-concluded MLB Winter Meetings. On consecutive days, two of the Orioles’ AL East rivals acquired top-of-the-line starting pitchers, first with the Yankees signing ace lefty Max Fried to an eight-year, $218 million contract, then the Red Sox swiping southpaw Garrett Crochet from the White Sox for four prospects. In the blink of an eye, two O’s divisional opponents boosted their rotations immensely, while the Birds’ starting pitching depth chart is led by…Zach Eflin? Grayson Rodriguez? That’s not gonna get it done.
If the Orioles intend to add an ace, though, their options are dwindling. Fried, Crochet, and Blake Snell are off the board. A reunion with Corbin Burnes would be ideal, but he’s the belle of the free agent ball with plenty of teams in hot pursuit. A few mid-tier starters are still unsigned — Nick Pivetta, Sean Manaea, Jack Flaherty — but none would move the needle as much as a legitimate ace would.
Oh, if only a #1 starter would magically become available! …Wait. What’s this?
For the second consecutive winter, it seems that Dylan Cease is on the trade market. And he may just be the solution that the Orioles need for 2025.
When the offseason began, Cease wasn’t on anyone’s radar as a potential acquisition. After all, it was just a year ago that the Padres acquired him from the White Sox for a four-player package, and he delivered a strong season atop San Diego’s rotation, leading them to the playoffs. The Pads are expected to contend again in 2025, so trading away their top starting pitcher after just one year seems counterproductive.
But as The Athletic’s Dennis Lin notes, Cease is a year from free agency, and the Padres don’t expect they’ll be able to re-sign him. And never underestimate the chaotic mind of Padres general manager A.J. Preller, who has spent his career reveling in a breakneck frenzy of trades. One minute, he’s pushing all his chips to the center, emptying his farm system to acquire a superstar. The next, he’s selling off his veterans for youngsters, replenishing his stock of prospects for whenever he decides to go all-in again.
Preller has repeated the cycle numerous times, most notably with Juan Soto, whom he acquired in 2022 for a boatload of blue-chippers and then dealt away just a year later for a package of prospects. Now it could be Cease’s turn to depart San Diego not long after he arrived. With quality starting pitching always a hot commodity, Lin writes that the Padres “are at least exploring the trade value of Cease,” though he cautions that a trade “is not considered likely.”
Not unless there’s a particularly motivated buyer, that is. That’s where the Orioles come in.
The O’s obviously have some experience trading for an ace who’s a one-year rental, having done it last winter by acquiring Burnes from Milwaukee. Dealing prospects for a new #1 starter every season is not exactly a viable long-term strategy, but the Orioles — if they’re not willing to shell out the money for a multi-year, free agent commitment — might have to go the trade route again.
They couldn’t ask for a much better option than Cease. The veteran right-hander, who turns 29 later this month, has been one of baseball’s most consistent pitchers for the last five years, posting a 3.56 ERA and 119 ERA+ since 2020. In 2021 he led all qualified starters in strikeout rate, posting a 12.3 K/9 mark and fanning 226 batters. The following year, he finished as the runner-up for the AL Cy Young, and led AL pitchers in bWAR (6.4), after pitching to a remarkable 2.20 ERA in 32 starts.
Cease suffered a bit of a down year in 2023, his last in Chicago, but bounced back just fine after the Padres acquired him. This season he was one of the most reliable hurlers in the National League, making a league-high 33 starts and throwing a career-high 189.1 innings. He went 14-11 with a 3.47 ERA and etched his name in the history books when he threw a no-hitter on July 25 in Washington. For the fourth straight year, Cease averaged more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings — 10.6, third-best in the NL — and finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting.
Cease’s stuff looked better than ever; his four-seam fastball velocity (96.9) was up 1.3 mph from the year before. He also made improvements on the one issue that’s plagued him throughout his career: walks. He’d averaged 4 BB/9 during his five-year White Sox career, but lowered that mark to 3.1 with the Padres. Cutting down on the free passes helped him post a career-best 1.07 WHIP.
The Orioles could use a guy like Cease, and they have the young talent needed to acquire him. We don’t know exactly what the Padres’ asking price would be, but with Cease just a year from free agency, the O’s most likely wouldn’t need to include either of their top two prospects — Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo — in the deal. They should be able to cobble together a package of other top-10 prospects who are a bit further from the majors.
If the O’s are serious about being World Series contenders in 2025, they can’t pass up the opportunity to add an ace. And if they don’t re-sign Burnes, then Cease is the next best option. Maybe the only other option.