A delivery tweak has the 32-year-old lefty looking more interesting now.
So—the Orioles won’t sign Max Fried, after all, as the lefty signed late on Tuesday for 7 years, $218 million with the Yankees (grr). They’re apparently not in the running for Chicago’s Garrett Crochet. With Corbin Burnes predicted to get six years and nine digits, it’s not wise to hold your breath for a reunion with the ace, although they could still elbow someone out of the way.
If the Birds do pivot to a mid-tier starter, they could certainly do worse than longtime Oakland Athletic Sean Manaea. A free agent for the second straight offseason, the left hander just completed a one-year deal with the Mets, and it went very well. The 32-year-old finished with a 3.47 ERA and a 2.92 K/BB over 32 starts — including, it’s been noted, a 3.09 ERA after tweaking his arm slot and pitch mix in late July. We’ll get back to that in a sec.
Manaea’s got an interesting story. Son of an American mother and a Samoan father who served in Vietnam then worked in a steel mill, Manaea grew up in Indiana and developed a 97-mph fastball while at Indiana State, out of which he was drafted by the Royals in 2013. In 2014, he visited his dad’s country for the first time and got a traditional sleeve tattoo. In 2022, he and teammate Joe Musgrove went on a nine-day expedition to Antarctica to raise money for disabled athletes. In the past he’s named his gloves things like SheHulk, Crestineth and Abraham Lincoln, and his car Salsa Azul.
OK, now some baseball-related stuff.
Early in his pro career the 6’5 lefty struggled with groin, abdominal and hip injuries, and KC traded him as a prospect to Oakland, where he’d make his debut in 2016. Over six seasons with the Athletics, Manaea was solid but unspectacular, with a 50-41 record, a 3.86 ERA, and 651 strikeouts in 727 innings. Traded to San Diego in 2022, he had mixed results, putting up a 4.96 ERA and -0.7 WAR as a starter, although he was one of only six lefties with 155 or more strikeouts.
Manaea signed a free-agent deal with San Francisco the next year, where he’d pitch to a 7-6 record and 4.44 ERA. But after those two consecutive average seasons, in 2024 he had something of a renaissance with the Mets at age 31, finishing 12-6 with a 1.084 WHIP and 184 strikeouts in 181.2 innings. He also pitched well for New York in the postseason, with 17 strikeouts in 17 innings, including a quality start in Game 3 against the Phillies and a two-run, seven-strikeout gem in Game 2 against the Dodgers.
It’s worth drilling down into what’s made Manaea a better pitcher since those years in California. Three seasons ago, his fastball run value was in the 24th percentile; last season it was 99th. In 2022, his most-pitched pitches were fastball-changeup-slider; in 2024, he led with a sinker, then a sweeper and a changeup. Turning his fastball into an accent pitch has made all of his offerings more effective: last season, batters hit .167 against his four-seamer, .193 against his sweeper and .201 against his sinker. These improvements were enough to earn him some down-ballot Cy Young votes.
The Athletic’s Jim Bowden recently tabbed Manaea as a good fit for the Orioles, noting that while Baltimore was “playing at the top of the starting pitching market — Corbin Burnes, Fried, Roki Sasaki and others,” if that should fail, “Manaea would be a solid backup plan.”
There’s risk and reward here. Going by Manaea’s recent track record of success, the left-hander paints as a solid middle- or even top-of-the-rotation arm. On the other hand, his plus-four ERA in 2022 and 2023 might be hard for teams to overlook. Overall, could that push Manaea’s value into Orioles-friendly territory?
Manaea’s price is predicted to be reachable. Spotrac puts his market value at four years, $71 million, and The Athletic predicts a three-year, $68 million deal for the left hander. Recently we’ve seen comparable deals for mid-tier starters, including Luis Severino’s deal with Oakland for 3 years/$67 million, Yusei Kikuchi go to the Angels for 3/$63 million, Frankie Montas to the Mets for 2/$34 million, and Matt Boyd to the Cubs for 2/$29 million.
Whether you aspire to dream of the Orioles making a splashy ace signing or predict something more moderate, Sean Manaea could be a good addition to the rotation behind Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez. Mike Elias just said that the Orioles are “in on everybody.” We’ll start to get answers on what that means very soon.