He’s still a flamethrowing lefty but he throws strikes now. What’s not to like?
For the rest of 2024, Camden Chat staff will be profiling assorted free agents, trade targets, and other potential offseason moves that could address needs for next year’s roster.
Tanner Scott was a 2024 All-Star, but Orioles fans might remember the lefty reliever somewhat differently. Flash back to the night of June 19, 2018, when, with the score 6-5 in the seventh inning at Nationals Park, manager Buck Showalter summoned Scott to face two lefties at the top of the Washington lineup, Adam Eaton and Juan Soto. Scott retired neither. Instead, he left his fastball over the middle and Eaton and Soto both reached. Then, he let right hander Anthony Rendon hit a deep drive to center-left that split outfielders Adam Jones and Joey Rickard. Two runs scored, and the Orioles went on to lose the game, 9-7.
That’s just one bad inning in a career that now spans 368 of them, but it encapsulates the perils of an otherwise tantalizing, flame-throwing lefty who, over parts of four seasons in Baltimore sometimes looked incredible, and other times went boom and couldn’t throw strikes.
Scott has always had impressive stuff—a career strikeout rate of 11.9 speaks to that. But he’s also always been worryingly walk-prone: after the Orioles drafted him in 2014, Scott averaged 5.9 BB/9 over parts of six MiLB seasons, and as a pro, he walked over six batters a game in both 2019 and 2021, throwing just around 58% strikes. In 2021, his 37 walks were tied for third-most on the team, and the other three were all starting pitchers.
It never quite worked out for Scott with Baltimore, where he posted a career 4.73 ERA over five big-league seasons. The Orioles parted company with the lefty in April 2022, and this turned out to be a career changer for him. In a mixed first season as a Miami Marlin in 2022, Scott kept up his walk-happy ways, awarding 46 free passes in 62.2 innings (a 6.6 BB/9).
But under Marlins manager Skip Schumaker and veteran pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr., something changed. Since 2023, Tanner Scott holds a 2.04 ERA and 188 strikeouts over 150 innings (11.28 K/9). He posted a strong 2.31 ERA in 74 appearances for Miami in 2023, and got even better in 2024, finishing 9-6 with a 1.75 ERA and 22 saves in a full-time closer role, and also earning his first All-Star selection.
According to Scott, his confidence on the mound grew as his manager and pitching coach allowed him to just “go out and attack.” “Before you know it, he was in and out of at-bats, throwing strikes, getting his strikeouts,” said Stottlemyre in spring 2024. “It was like a domino effect. It just started falling into play. It was an absolutely beautiful thing. If you asked me to draw that out for the next guy and think that he’s going to follow that path, I wish I had that magical formula in here. I’d hand it to everyone.”
Well, magic formula or not, that’s two consecutive strong seasons for Scott, who was traded to the San Diego Padres in mid-2024. The Padres lost to the eventual champion Dodgers in five games in the NLDS, but it was hardly the fault of Scott, who whiffed eight hitters in 5 1/3 innings in the playoffs without allowing a run.
So, there’s your new look at Tanner Scott. We in Birdland knew him as the rare left-hander who can run his fastball close to 100 mph with a complimentary slider. But we didn’t know he’d cut his walks in half (3.1 per game with San Diego) and turn into a closer type.
Is a Tanner Scott reunion something the front office might conceivably be considering? The negatives, as I see it, are three (two being no fault of Scott’s own). One, his strikeout rates have declined from a career high of 12.9 K/9 in 2022 to 12.0 in 2023 and 10.5 in 2024. Is that a real cause for concern? His slider got slightly less deadly last year, but his fastball velocity has stayed firm at 97 mph for the last five seasons. He also ranked in the 92nd percentile in whiff rate and in the 100th percentile in average exit velocity.
A second point against Scott: he is being written about as the most sought-after reliever in free agency, especially the top left-handed option available. This is no fault of Scott’s, but it’s unlike the Orioles to spend heavily on bullpen pieces. Last year’s $13 million deal for Craig Kimbrel is as close as we’ve seen to that (and we know how that went). Anyway, Scott, 30, who’s already drawn interest from the Mets, the Phillies, and the Red Sox, is likely to obliterate that mark. He’s projected to sign a four-year, $65 million deal per Spotrac, and Jim Bowden of The Athletic predicted he’d sign for four years and $60 million with Philadelphia.
Third and finally, when it comes to the needs of the team that drafted him, these may not permit a splashy relief pitcher signing. The Orioles are expected to target a starting pitcher, bullpen help and a right-handed-hitting outfielder. And while it’s true that the roster has open slots—the team having not picked up contract options for Danny Coulombe and Jacob Webb—Scott looks and feels like a luxury. The O’s can’t be sure how closer Félix Bautista (expected to be ready for spring) will look after Tommy John surgery, but paying top dollar for another closer, just to have to convert him or Bautista back to a setup man (a very expensive setup man, in Scott’s case)? It’s a little hard to picture, especially with the team also trying to make a splash in the market for a top starter.
Overall, the biggest arguments against a Tanner Scott reunion are familiar ones: money and competition. The Orioles are still not a team that outbids other people, especially not for a guy who used to be on their payroll and couldn’t throw strikes. Paying upwards of $15 million a year for a late-innings reliever-closer type when you already have Bautista is certainly steep. But there’s no doubt that, as they aim for World Series contention, the Orioles’ roster would be strengthened considerably by acquiring the 2024 All-Star Scott. Under new owner David Rubenstein, will a new-look Orioles team start to make such bold but unfamiliar moves?