A fan favorite is facing increased competition for playing time, and it could be time to package him for other needs on the roster.
Contending teams don’t usually send away solid major league talent. But it can make sense in the right circumstances. Ryan Mountcastle is a steady first baseman that could produce more in a different environment. A trade this winter might make sense for everyone.
Let’s be clear that this is not meant to be a blog that takes down Mountcastle. He’s a good player! But he does have flaws. And while he is the Orioles’ best first baseman, he is not irreplaceable.
In 2024, Mountcastle hit .271/.308/.425 with 13 home runs, 27 walks, and 114 strikeouts. The batting average was the best of his MLB career, but his OBP and slugging were below his career marks. His home run per fly ball rate (10.5%) was also the lowest he has ever posted. On top of that, he does have a history of injuries, making an IL stint in each of the last four seasons, and has not played more than 124 games in a season since 2022.
Perhaps as a response to Walltimore in left field at Camden Yards, Mountcastle cut down his overall fly ball rate, hit more line drives than ever before, and showed some solid peripherals at the plate (above-average exit velocities, bat speed, and expected slugging percentage). But that was counter weighted by a horrendous chase rate and poor walk rate that put all the pressure on his batted ball outcomes. As mentioned, those batted balls did not leave the park as frequently as they used to and his overall production suffered.
The 108 wRC+ Mountcastle posted in 2024 was tied for the lowest of his career, and this in a season where offensive output was down across the league. It’s reasonable to say that this past season was the worst of the 27-year-old’s big league time at the plate.
Fortunately for Mountcastle, he has been a pretty good hitter as a pro, so even his worst season is still above average league-wide. Among qualified first baseman, though, Mountcastle was 15th out of 25, so subpar at his position.
Defensively, it was a different story. Mountcastle registered two outs above average at first base, the second-best mark of his career (three OAA in 2022). That made him a Gold Glove finalist, ultimately losing out to Carlos Santana.
There is no question that Mountcastle can pick it at first, and that fact is exacerbated when someone like Ryan O’Hearn is in the field instead. The difference between the two with the leather is massive. But it is also true that the overall value of a positive defensive first baseman is not equivalent to such glove work elsewhere on the diamond.
That is Mountcastle in a nutshell. He is a good hitter, but about average for his position. And he is a good fielder, particularly for his position, but the overall value of that is limited.
This winter Mountcastle will go through arbitration for the second time. He is a due a raise from $4.1 million in 2024 to about $6.6 million in 2025. That is a perfectly fair salary for the type of production that Mountcastle provides. But between Mountcastle’s $6.6 million and O’Hearn’s $8 million, the Orioles will be paying nearly $15 million to the 1B/DH partnership that might have more competition in the season ahead.
The Orioles have already given Gary Sánchez $8.5 million, which seems steep for someone that is strictly a backup catcher. He is likely to get some time at DH on occasion. Adley Rutschman could also see more starts at DH if the Orioles want to keep him healthy for longer and avoid whatever it was that happened in the second half last year. Then there is the question of what to do with Heston Kjerstad. If he is not traded, he probably deserves some DH at-bats as well. And oh, is Coby Mayo going to be in Baltimore early in 2025 or what? It’s tough see him getting an actual run at third base if Jordan Westburg and Ramón Urías are on the roster and healthy. So he goes into the 1B/DH mixer as well.
The point is that there are a lot options for those opportunities that could also yield higher production overall. And Mountcastle is at the point in his career—that is, two years left until free agency—where teams often look to move off of good, not great, players and fill other holes.
We know the Orioles still have some shopping to do this offseason. They want to add a front-line pitcher, and they want more bullpen depth. And there could even be room for a fourth outfielder type as well. Mountcastle alone could probably net them the reliever or the outfielder, and he could add some value to a package for an ace.
A potential loss of Mountcastle would hurt. He is a fun personality that can also play some ball. And the moving of the left field wall at Camden Yards back in a bit would probably help his production. But that doesn’t entirely cover up his other flaws that are not impacted by stadium dimensions.
Meanwhile, the Orioles have other talented players looking for opportunities, and first base could be the perfect spot for them to breakthrough. And because Mountcastle is, in fact, a legitimate starting first baseman, he would have value in a trade for one of the items that the Orioles are still searching for this offseason.