The Orioles could use a right-handed power hitter. Tyler O’Neill fits the bill.
The Orioles hitters can be pretty imposing when they’re on their game. But one thing jumps out when you look up and down the lineup. It is riddled with lefties. Inserting a heavy-hitting righty into the mix could take the team to another level against lefty starters that often stymied the team. Having it be an outfielder would be even better. Enter Tyler O’Neill.
Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Ryan O’Hearn, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, and Cedric Mullins bat from the left side. The free agency of Anthony Santander means that, without a move this offseason, those last three are the starting outfielders.
How Kjerstad ultimately adjusts to major-league pitching will be seen, but Cowser and Mullins have shown over their careers to date that hitting lefty pitching is just not their jam. Mullins OPS’d just .506 against lefties in 2024 and is at .636 over his seven-season career. Cowser’s MLB career is much shorter but his .653 OPS vs lefties isn’t much better. Cowser also had a big platoon split in the minors.
O’Neill has been primarily a left fielder in his major league career, though he also played in 50 games in right field with the Red Sox in 2024. He’s a few years removed from them, but he won back-to-back Gold Gloves in 2020 and 2021. With O’Neill on the Orioles roster, they’d have the luxury of giving Cowser the day off or moving him over to center to spell Mullins.
Drafted out of high school by the Mariners in 2013 and traded to the Cardinals in 2017, O’Neill made his debut in 2018 with a solid 61 games. He had an up-and-down six years with the Cardinals. It seemed like 2021 would be a breakout season for him as he hit .286/.352/.560 with 34 home runs.
But he couldn’t keep up the production. Between his inconsistent batting and various injuries, O’Neill topped 100 games played just once in his six years with the Cardinals. Aside from 2021, his bat hovered closer to league average while racking up a career 30.8% strikeout rate. That’s high.
Before the 2024 season, the Cardinals traded O’Neill to the Red Sox and the change of scenery did him good. He still had injury issues with three short IL stints, but even so mashed 31 home runs in 113 games.
Throughout his years with the Cardinals, when it often seemed like his bat was underperforming, one thing remained steady: O’Neill’s performance against left-handed pitchers.
Throughout his seven-year career, O’Neill has a hitting line of .270/.376/.547 against lefties. There’s no arguing with a .912 OPS. Early in his career his platoon splits weren’t so pronounced, but since 2021 his OPS+ against lefties has been 124, 126, 122, and 174. That is consistently good. Over the same period, his numbers against righties are less inspiring, but not so bad that he’s unplayable.
Thus far, O’Neill has not been used as a platoon bat. It’s tougher to have a righty platoon than a lefty platoon by virtue of there being so many more right-handed pitchers. But with the current makeup of the Orioles, he could be effectively used as a regular in the lineup against lefties, a powerful pinch-hit option off the bench, or even against righties in limited action.
As a team, the Orioles weren’t bad against lefties in 2024. They land solidly in the top 10 in the majors in wOBA (.325) and wRC+ (115). And they don’t have a big platoon split in favor of right-handed pitchers. They hit both sides almost equally. But they weren’t as successful lefty starters and lefty vs lefty was their weakest platoon split. Pulling out one of those lefties in favor of O’Neill would provide a boost to the lineup.
This is especially true as one of the team’s better hitters against lefties, Anthony Santander, has left for free agency. Why not just re-sign Santander, then? For one thing, MLB Trade Rumors predicts that Santander will sign for four years, $80M and that O’Neill will sign for three years, $42M. It makes sense; Santander is a better overall player.
But, like O’Neill, Santander is far from a sure thing. I have warm fuzzies over Santander’s last season and it softens the memories of his streakiness, but it is real and it is severe. That’s not to disparage Santander but I am personally not convinced he’ll end up being worth the contract a team gives him.
And even as we hope the Orioles will have a vastly increased budget thanks to new ownership, there will still be a budget. And they still need to sign a starting pitcher. And not just any starting pitcher, one of the good ones. Maybe more than one. If they re-sign Corbin Burnes (my preference), go after Max Fried, or pony up for Blake Snell, it’s going to cost them. Could the difference between an O’Neill contract and a Santander contract give them the flexibility to sign one of them? It’s a possibility.
Tyler O’Neill is a flawed free agent. He strikes out too much, he gets injured a lot, and to date he hasn’t put together a string of truly good seasons. But he fits a need for the Orioles as a right-handed outfielder who mashes lefties and, if used correctly could be a huge boost to the team’s offense.