The Orioles are looking to hold onto their lead atop the AL East while the Padres are looking to maintain their tenuous hold on a NL Wild Card spot
After a disappointing series in Miami with a thrilling ending, the Orioles return home to face another team from the Senior Circuit—the San Diego Padres. This will be the first time the Orioles welcome Manny Machado and the Padres to Camden Yards since 2019—Manny’s first season with the Friars. The last time the Padres made the trip out East, they were a franchise on the rise while the Orioles were just beginning their descent into rebuilding. Now the shoes are somewhat on the other feet—with the Orioles the rising contender and the Padres in a bit of a No Man’s Land.
Despite the franchise’s different trajectories, the Padres are playing slightly better baseball than the Orioles right now. Since Father’s Day, the O’s are a middling 14-17 while the Padres are 18-12. A lot of that comes down to the form of the team’s two pitching staffs. Over those 40+ games, the Orioles’ staff has allowed 4.1 runs/game while the Padres have only allowed 3.3 runs/game. Neither staff will through their ace this weekend, as Corbin Burnes threw 7.1 innings of three-run ball in the final against Miami, while Dylan Cease threw a no-hitter against the Nationals.
The matchups with the Padres in Baltimore haven’t often gone the Orioles way. The O’s are 3-6 against San Diego in Camden Yards and haven’t won a home game against the Pads since 2016. In the 2019 matchup in Baltimore, the Padres won the first game 8-3 before scoring a 10-5 win in Game 2. It was a great homecoming for Machado, who went 3-8 with a home run, 2 RBI, 2 runs and a walk. In seven games against the Birds, the former Orioles All-Star is hitting .310 with a .996 OPS and two HRs.
Another Interleague Series also means the Orioles get a chance to improve their season record against the National League. Through the first four months of the season, the O’s are only 13-16 against NL teams—including 8-12 against NL teams currently outside the playoff picture. Maybe luckily for Baltimore, the Padres are currently in the playoff picture thanks to their recent winning ways—with San Diego half a game ahead of the Cardinals for the last wildcard spot.
Game 1: Friday, July 26th, 7:05pm ET, MASN
Probable pitchers: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (12-4, 3.83 ERA, 120 Ks) vs. TBD
While the O’s won’t have Burnes in this series, they get the next best thing in the series opener when they hand the ball to Rodriguez. G-Rod is coming off a strong start in his home state against the Rangers, punching out eight over six innings while only allowing three runs. Despite a slightly elevated ERA, giving the ball to Rodriguez every five days has been a recipe for success for the O’s this season. The flame-throwing Texan is tied for the AL lead with 12 wins, the Orioles are 13-5 when he starts and he’s put up 10 quality starts in those 18 outings.
The second-year right-hander will be excited to welcome the Padres to town after carving them up last year in San Diego. Last August, G-Rod made his first career start in Petco Park and pitched a gem, going seven innings while allowing one run on three hits while striking out six. Rodriguez relied heavily on a sweeper in that start, a pitch he completely abandoned in 2024 in favor of a traditional slider. That change hasn’t been a fruitful one for the fireballer, with opponents hitting .282 and slugging .634 off the breaking ball. Of the Padres regulars, Rodriguez needs to be most careful not to hang a slider to Ha-Seong Kim, who’s hitting .283 against sliders with a +4 Run Value.
With Michael King’s next start pushed back to Saturday, the Padres may do like the Orioles did with Chayce McDermott and call a Triple-A arm in for a spot start. They were using rookie RHP Adam Mazur as the fifth starter before the All-Star break but option him back to El Paso on July 10th. Mazur—who has a 7.84 ERA in seven big league starts—last pitched for the Chihuahuas on July 20th so he’d be on full rest if the Padres call him up for Friday’s game.
Game 2: Saturday, July 27th, 4:05pm ET, MASN
Probable pitchers: RHP Dean Kremer (4-6, 4.43 ERA, 66 Ks) vs. Michael King (8-6, 3.28 ERA, 135 Ks)
After pitching five shutout innings in his return from the IL, Kremer has been anything but sharp in his three starts since. In those three outings vs. the Cubs, Yankees and Rangers, the 28-year-old pitched 14 innings, allowing 16 hits, 12 runs (10 earned) with eight walks and four home runs. During his struggles, Kremer’s four-seam fastball has been hit particularly hard—with opponents batting 5-14 with two HRs off the heater. All-Star Jurickson Profar has been particularly deadly against fastballs, putting up a .283 average, .492 slugging percentage and a +8 Run Value.
The California native Kremer wasn’t quite as sharp as Rodriguez last season when he faced off against the Padres. The righty did earn a quality start after pitching six innings of three-run ball while striking out four. He still took the loss though as the O’s fell 5-2 in the series finale. San Diego hit Kremer’s sinker particularly hard in that game, with all three runs coming off the sinking fastball. The Orioles starter has thrown a splitter as his third pitch this season, often instead of the sinker, and opponents are only hitting .128 off the off-speed offering. Kremer will still want to be careful about throwing splitters to Profar, who’s hitting .333 with a .524 slugging percentage against the pitch.
While the Orioles will likely face a pitcher for the first time on Friday, they’re very familiar with Saturday’s starter King. The former Yankee has been the best player the Padres got from the Juan Soto trade and was typically a thorn in the Orioles’ side when he pitched in New York. In 13 career appearances vs. Baltimore, King has a 2.63 ERA while holding the O’s to a .155 average and striking out 28 batters over 27.1 innings.
King’s only career start against Baltimore came back in the 2020 season when he allowed three runs over four innings—including two home runs—in a 6-5 Yankees win. Since then, he’s only allowed one run over 15.2 innings in relief at Camden Yards. Both Cedric Mullins and Ryan O’Hearn have homered off King in the past, so look for the vets to get starts on Saturday.
Game 3: Sunday, July 28th, 1:35pm ET, MASN
Probable pitchers: TBD vs. TBD
This would normally be Albert Suárez’ turn in the rotation, but given that he allowed six runs in two innings vs. Miami (and has a 6.38 ERA in his last five starts) we may see Brandon Hyde shake up the rotation. Cade Povich made his last start in Norfolk on July 24th, meaning he likely won’t get called up for this game as he’d be pitching on short rest. Likely we see either another Suárez outing or a spot start by Cole Irvin. The wildcard option would be calling up someone like Bruce Zimmermann, Justin Armbruester or Brandon Young—who are all scheduled to start this weekend for the Tides.
The Padres will likely turn to rookie Randy Vásquez, who has been one of their best starters of late. Over his last five starts, Vásquez combined for 26.1 innings, compiled a 1.71 ERA and is holding hitters to a .247 average. The 25-year-old from the Dominican Republic is the definition of a “pitch-to-contact” pitcher, walking only five percent of the hitters he faces while having one of the worst strikeout rates in the MLB. Last time out against the Nationals, he pitched six scoreless innings while allowing no walks and only striking out one.
The matchup for Vásquez could spell great news for the young trio of Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser. All three are in the top 40 of the MLB for hard-hit percentage, but each also has a fair amount of swing-and-miss in their game. Against a pitcher like Vásquez, who you know is going to pound the strike zone, it’s easy to imagine the young stars teeing off on pitches in the zone.