The Orioles return home looking to ride their positive momentum to another series win in this AL East matchup
After a sweep of the White Sox on the south side of Chicago, the Orioles return home to face some slightly better Sox from Boston. Baltimore welcomes the Red Sox for the first time in 2024 and the O’s will be looking for a repeat of their first meeting earlier this season in Boston. In that three game set, the Orioles swept the BoSox in front of the Fenway faithful, outscoring them 23-10.
The Red Sox came into the first series with the better record, but since then the two teams have settled into distinctly different tiers of the MLB hierarchy. Since sweeping Boston, the Orioles are 25-14 and undeniably one of the leading contenders in the AL. After being swept, Boston is an even 20-20 and hovering amongst a crowded middle tier.
The Red Sox continue to be one of the better pitching teams in the AL, though they’ve fallen off since the start of the season. When the O’s last met them, they were the best pitching team in baseball. Right now, they sit fifth in the AL with a team ERA of 3.83—just behind Baltimore in fourth.
That promising pitching staff is propped up by an offense that is best described as exceptionally average. The Red Sox are just a couple places above the league average in runs/game, batting average, home runs, and on-base percentage. Their OPS+ of 99 just puts them below the normalized average and just above the last two teams the O’s welcomed to Baltimore in Toronto and Seattle. Boston is one of the most free swinging teams in all of baseball, one of four teams that has already racked up 500+ Ks. Oriole pitchers will have to deal with the ever dangerous Rafael Devers, who is slashing .264/.337/.586 in May with seven HRs and 17 RBIs.
Offensively, the Orioles will hope Colton Cowser can repeat the success he found in Boston earlier this year. In his first career matchup with the Red Sox, the Milk Man delivered a 6-13 series that included three doubles, two HRs and 10 RBIs. Jordan Westburg will also be chomping at the bit to face Boston again. The second year infielder is 7-20 with three doubles and two home runs in eight career appearances against the Red Sox, with Westy’s 1.280 OPS vs. Boston his second highest against any opponent.
Game 1: Monday, May 27th, 1:05pm ET, MASN
LHP Cole Irvin (4-2, 3.15 ERA, 30 Ks) vs. RHP Cooper Criswell (2-1, 2.86 ERA, 34 Ks)
With John Means and Dean Kremer currently on the IL, Cole Irvin returns to the rotation hoping to author a better performance this time against Boston. Irvin has been largely excellent for the Orioles this season, solidifying himself as a dependable starter that can also be effective as a long man out of the pen. The one start where he definitely didn’t have his best stuff was his last matchup with Boston, where he allowed seven hits and five runs over five innings.
It was those struggles in Boston that caused Irvin to retool his pitching mix. The veteran lefty has drastically cut back on his sinker usage and come to rely primarily on his curveball and fastball to attack hitters. Irvin’s breaking ball should be his best weapon against Boston, as the majority of the Red Sox lineup struggles against curveballs. Only Rob Refsnyder, Tyler O’Neill and Devers have slugging percentages above .500 against curveballs this season, and only the first two hit lefties well. The most curveballs we’ve seen Irvin throw in a start this season was 37 against Cincinnati. If the pitch is working early, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him top that mark against Boston.
Opposing the veteran Irvin is rookie right-hander Cooper Criswell. After pitching sparingly for the Angels and Rays the last couple seasons, the former 13th-round pick is finally carving out a role for himself in Boston. The soft-tossing Criswell keeps hitters off balance by throwing equal amounts of sinkers, sweepers and changeups, with the change being particularly effective. The 27-year-old excels at pounding the zone and generating ground balls. The matchup with Criswell should prove fruitful for Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander. The Red Sox starter loves throwing changeups to lefties, and both Gunnar and Tony Taters are hitting over .300 with a slugging percentage above .700 against cambios.
Game 2: Tuesday, May 28th, 6:35pm ET, MASN
RHP Grayson Rodriguez (5-1, 3.20 ERA, 51 Ks) vs. RHP Brayan Bello (5-2, 4.04 ERA, 37 Ks)
The second game of the three will see two of the brightest young pitchers in the AL East square off in Rodriguez and Bello. Both hard-throwing right-handers recently came back from stints on the IL, and the results for G-Rod have been much more encouraging than the returns for Bello. In two starts since coming back from a right shoulder injury, Grayson has a 1.64 ERA and 14 Ks in 11 innings. In comparison, Bello has a 5.74 ERA in his three starts back from the IL and has given up 15 hits and four HRs across 15.2 IPs.
Like Criswell, Bello’s plan starts with pounding the zone with sinkers and then working his changeup and slider off of that. In his first matchup with the O’s, Bello threw his sinker 46% of the time and used it to keep Baltimore largely off balance. The Orioles were just 4-21 off Bello that afternoon and the Red Sox righty only ended up on the hook for the loss thanks to a pair of unearned runs. The Orioles doing the most damage against sinkers this year are Jorge Mateo, Jordan Westburg and Adley Rutschman, who all have a slugging percentage above .550 against sinking fastballs. Cowser also found success against Bello in their first matchup, going 2-2 with two doubles.
Rodriguez didn’t factor into the decision for his start in Boston, but still put together a solid outing. The flame-throwing Texan threw 5.2 innings, allowing five hits and two runs while punching out five. Since that game, G-Rod has started to throw more sliders than curveballs, especially to right-handed batters. That slider should help neutralize the powerful duo of Devers and O’Neill, as both of the Red Sox sluggers are just barely above the Mendoza Line against sliders this season. While Grayson doesn’t usually throw many sliders to lefties, he may want to make an exception with Devers. The Red Sox 3B is crushing changeups this season, and is much more successful against curveballs than sliders.
Game 3: Wednesday, May 29th, 6:35pm ET, MASN
RHP Corbin Burnes (4-2, 2.60 ERA, 66 Ks) vs. RHP Kutter Crawford (2-3, 2.89 ERA, 61 Ks)
Expect cutters early and often in the series finale as Burnes and Crawford square off. Burnes leads MLB with 42 cutters/start and also has the most effective cutter in baseball by Run Value. Crawford lives up to his name as he’s just behind Burnes in terms of cutter at 29 cutters/start. However, the Red Sox starter’s cutter is not nearly as effective, as opponents are hitting 68 points higher and slugging 108 off Crawford’s cutter than Burnes’ cutter.
After starting his career with a couple nightmare outings vs. Baltimore, Crawford has lately become much more of a thorn in the collective side of the O’s. In this first two appearances against the Orioles, the former 16th round pick allowing 12 hits, four HRs and 11 ER over 3.2 innings. In two starts since then, Crawford has absolutely dominated the Orioles to the tune of 11 IP, three Hs, zero ER and 13 Ks.
That complete about-face in his results vs. Baltimore has coincided with Crawford largely dropping his knuckle curve and turning to the en vogue sweeper as his breaking ball of choice. Unsurprisingly, Gunnar Henderson—destroyer of breaking balls—is the Orioles’ best hitter against sweepers this season. The star SS is slugging 1.154 against sweepers this season with a hard-hit rate of 71%. Crawford doesn’t throw a ton of sweepers to lefties, but if he throws one to Gunnar, there’s a good chance it gets hit a long way.
This will be Burnes’ first start against the Red Sox in Camden Yards and he’ll look to equal his strong effort in Boston. In Burnes’ introduction to the AL East rivalry, he made his longest start of the season, throwing seven innings while allowing only two hits and one run. This time around shouldn’t be much different, as Boston is not particularly strong against cutters. Of their regular starters, only outfielder Wilyer Abreu hits cutters well, with a .308 average and 70% hard-hit rate. Also working in Burnes’ favor is his success at home. The former Cy Young winner has a 1.99 ERA at Camden Yards compared to a 3.60 ERA on the road.
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With the Yankees facing off against the struggling Angels, the Orioles will likely need to continue their sweeping ways if they want to make up ground in the AL East. The good news there is that the O’s are 7-2 in division this year, by far the best winning percentage in AL East matchups.