Corbin Burnes leads the Orioles staff against one of baseball’s best rotations as Kansas City comes to Baltimore for the Wild Card Series
It took all 162 games for the Orioles to get their playoff opponent, but we now know that it’s the Kansas City Royals will come to Baltimore to take on the Orioles in a best-of-three Wild Card Series.
The last time these two teams met in the postseason was the 2014 ALCS, when the Royals swept the O’s to make their first World Series appearance since 1985. The O’s were much more successful against the Royals in 2024, going 4-2 against Kansas City and winning the series in both Camden Yards and Kauffman Stadium. It’s been a while, though, since these two teams squared off, as the last Orioles-Royals game came back on April 21.
Both of these teams are playing in October, in part, thanks to the strength of their rotations. The Orioles overcame a rash of injuries to their initial starting rotation to finish fifth in MLB in starters’ ERA at 3.77. The Royals, led by a combination of journeymen and young up-and-comers, finished second in all of baseball with a 3.56 ERA from their starters.
The Orioles had an up-and-down second half offensively and Kansas City — outside of Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez — was a mediocre offense all season. Given that, the starting pitchers should play a big role in deciding who wins the series. The question is who has the better set of starters.
Game 1
Probable pitchers: RHP Corbin Burnes (15-9, 2.92 ERA, 181 Ks) vs. LHP Cole Ragans (11-9, 3.14 ERA, 223 Ks)
Burnes was every bit of the ace the Orioles hoped for when they acquired the former Cy Young winner from Milwaukee in the offseason. After putting up a 2.92 ERA in 194.1 innings, Burnes became the first Orioles pitcher to put up a sub-3 ERA in 190+ innings since Mike Mussina finished fourth in Cy Young voting in 1992. Burnes is also the first to put up those numbers while racking up 180+ Ks since Jim Palmer finished second in Cy Young voting in 1977.
Ragans, the former Rangers first round pick from the 2016 draft, delivered a breakout year in his first full season in Kansas City. The 26-year-old southpaw finished second in the American League with 223 strikeouts and led all AL starters with 10.8 K/9. The last time a Royals starter racked up that many Ks was Zack Greinke’s Cy Young-winning season in 2009, while the K/9 rate is a Royals single-season franchise record.
The Orioles ace was good but not great when he twice faced the Royals in April. In his second start of the season, Burnes scattered nine Royals hits over 5.2 innings while limiting Kansas City to two runs. Seventeen days later in Kauffman Stadium, Burnes once again went 5.2 innings, this time giving up three runs while racking up four Ks. Perhaps most importantly, the Orioles won both Burnes starts against the Royals.
Ragans had more of a Jekyll and Hyde experience in his two outings against Baltimore—both times facing off against Burnes. In his first career start at Camden Yards, Ragans definitely out-pitched Burnes, delivering a final line of 6.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB and 7 Ks. When they rematched in Kansas City, it was a completely different story. Baltimore put up nine hits and seven runs against Ragans, chasing the Royals ace before he could complete two innings.
On paper, this is an excellent matchup for the Royals’ ace. The breakout star had a 2.87 ERA on the road this season—more than half a run lower than his home ERA. He also gets the benefit of pitching in front of the Great Wall of Baltimore as a left-handed pitcher.
However, Burnes has a decided advantage when it comes to playoff experience. The four-time All-Star made six appearances as a reliever in the Brewers’ 2018 run to the NLCS and started Game 1 of the 2021 ALDS and last year’s Wild Card Series. Ragans will be making his first postseason appearance when he takes the bump on Tuesday. After watching Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer struggle in their postseason debuts last year, I expect Ragans to suffer enough first-time jitters to give Burnes and the O’s the edge.
Advantage: Orioles
Game 2
Probable pitchers: RHP Zach Eflin (10-9, 3.59 ERA, 134 Ks) vs. RHP Seth Lugo (16-9, 3.00 ERA, 181 Ks)
Mike Elias called Eflin the best pitcher available at this season’s trade deadline, and he’s proved his GM right during his second-half performance with Baltimore. In nine starts with the Orioles, Eflin has a 2.60 ERA and a .234 BAA with seven quality starts in nine appearances. The O’s are also 7-2 in games started by Eflin, with one of those losses coming in a game where the veteran right-hander only allowed one run over 6.2 innings.
The Royals figure to counter the veteran right-hander with a seasoned vet of their own. After spending most of his career as a reliever with the Mets, Lugo redefined himself as a starter this year with Kansas City. He led MLB with 206.2 IP, finished 10th with a 3.00 ERA and gave Kansas City one of the best second starters in all of baseball.
While Eflin excelled in the second half after his move from Tampa to Baltimore, Lugo’s pitching dropped off after the All-Star break. Lugo finished third (behind Tarik Skubal and Burnes) with a 2.48 first-half ERA, but that number jumped up to 3.84 after the All-Star break. The two biggest contributing factors to Lugo’s second-half struggles were a declining strikeout rate and pitching more often in Kauffman. Like Ragans, Lugo was much better on the road this season, with a 2.62 road ERA vs. a 3.36 home ERA.
Despite Eflin and Lugo both being in their ninth season, the Orioles starter does have the decided advantage in postseason expierence. Lugo’s only three playoff appearances came two years ago as reliever with New York. Eflin, on the other hand, made 10 relief appearances for the Phillies in their run to World Series in 2022, while also starting Game 2 of the Wild Card Series for Tampa Bay last year. While Eflin’s experience in the postseason hasn’t been great (5.17 ERA in 15.2 IP) he’s also playing the best baseball of his career with the Orioles.
Something to watch is Lugo’s pitch selection vs. Baltimore. He’s pitched well in September by drastically increasing his cutter usage. The Orioles have clobbered that pitch all year, with seven of their regular starters hitting above .300 against opposing cutters. The Royals, conversely, struggle against curveballs—one of Eflin’s go-to out pitches. The margins are fairly small, but on second-half form, Eflin gives Baltimore an edge over Lugo and the Royals.
Advantage: Orioles
Game 3
Probable pitchers: RHP Dean Kremer (8-10, 4.10 ERA, 123 Ks) vs. RHP Michael Wacha (13-8, 3.35 ERA, 145 Ks)
If the Orioles can’t take care of business in either Game 1 or Game 2, things should turn in the Royals’ favor in the Game 3 pitching matchup. Kremer is coming off his best month of the season, posting a 2.25 ERA and .195 BAA across four starts in September. The right-hander was also decent in two starts this year against the Royals, allowing three runs over 5.1 innings in Baltimore and three runs over 5.2 innings in Kansas City. However, Kremer was essentially the same starter in 2024 as he was in 2023, and last postseason the now 28-year-old allowed six runs over 1.2 innings in Baltimore’s final playoff game.
Wacha has the most postseason experience of any starter in this series, with six career playoff starts and 38 innings in October. Birdland can take some solace in the fact that in Wacha’s last postseason appearance—in 2021—he allowed six runs in 2.2 innings as his Rays fell to the Red Sox. The longtime Cardinal has been a different pitcher since leaving Tampa Bay, posting a 3.30 ERA over the last three years between Boston, San Diego and Kansas City.
Wacha’s career resurgence has coincided with decreasing his fastball usage and increasing his changeup usage. This year, he threw the fourth most changeups of any pitcher in the majors, with opponents only hitting .169 and slugging .312 on the veteran’s cambio. Unlike many pitchers who use the changeup as an out pitch, Wacha will throw the offspeed offering in any count and uses it—along with his fastball and sinker—to generate lots of ground balls and weak contact.
The return of Ramón Urías and Ryan Mountcastle could play a big role against Wacha, as the pair are the Orioles’ best changeup hitters. Still, given Wacha’s vast advantage in postseason experience and his superior regular-season numbers, he’d give the Royals an advantage on the mound if the series makes it to Game 3.
Advantage: Royals