If one of these teams takes the series, they’ll be ahead in the division when it ends.
Even before the 2024 season began, you could circle this week’s four-game set between the Orioles and Yankees as being perhaps the first big test of quality that the O’s were going to face this year. This hasn’t turned out to be completely true, particularly with six games against the Royals now looking like that was a good opponent rather than part of a weak opening schedule.
Heading into Sunday afternoon, the two teams were tied atop the AL East, or actually the Orioles were ahead by percentage points. Heading into the ninth inning in Baltimore, this was still true. Bad Craig Kimbrel making an appearance for the second time in three days changed that around. The Yankees blew out the Brewers and the Orioles lost to Oakland, so the Orioles will actually trail by a game as the series begins.
Things feel tumultuous after dropping two of three at home to an Oakland team that’s had a terrible offense so far this season. Late bullpen problems – not exclusively Kimbrel’s but he was the worst culprit – led to the two losses. It feels like the Orioles need to find a fourth trusted reliever to avoid burning out their three most trusted relievers and efforts to do this have not solidified yet so they’re leaning on the guys they do trust.
A ragged bullpen isn’t what you want heading into a four-game set with the current division leader, with whom the Orioles must find a way to keep pace. The starting rotation has done less than I’d like to at least complete six innings. Changes are coming, with Kyle Bradish seemingly back on Thursday and John Means back on Friday.
Changes will probably come sooner than that, because it seems inevitable that the O’s must get a fresh reliever up for tonight. Maybe they’ll get Yohan Ramírez out of here. Maybe they’ll give Keegan Akin the “thanks for multiple solid innings, now head to the minors” tough treatment. Nick Vespi? Bruce Zimmermann? Neither name excites. Either could do the job of “chew up multiple innings if either Grayson Rodriguez or Dean Kremer are bad for the next two nights.”
Normally, I would have spent all of the above time talking about the Orioles opponent. There’s just so much in flux about the O’s, or at least it feels that way after the weekend’s series, that this is as important of an aspect of the coming four games as anything to do with the Yankees.
Who, by the way, are pretty good. So far, their offseason trade for young stud outfielder Juan Soto is paying the exact dividends that they anticipated – maybe even moreso. After 29 games, Soto has a .998 OPS. He’s homered seven times. He’s walked substantially more than he struck out (24-17). Aaron Judge was slumping for a while but lately he’s come out of it. Anthony Volpe would be the most interesting shortstop in the AL if it wasn’t for Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr.
Game 1: Monday, 6:35
- Clarke Schmidt (NYY) – 5 GS, 3.55 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 1.461 WHIP in 25.1 IP
- Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) – 5 GS, 4.45 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 1.412 WHIP in 28.1 IP
The season began with four good-to-great starts from Rodriguez before he ran into a hiccup the last time around, getting blasted by the Angels. Another stinker wouldn’t be as much of a shame against this Yankees team, but it still wouldn’t feel good and I’d be wondering if second half of last year Grayson is the one we’re going to keep getting going forward. A year ago, Rodriguez shut out the Yankees for 6.1 innings, matching Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole in a game the O’s eventually won, 1-0.
Schmidt’s first full season in a big league rotation was just a year ago at age 27. He posted a 4.64 ERA in 33 games, which worked out to a 92 ERA+ (8% below league average) when considering the park/league environment. Things are looking better for him in 2024, though he’s yet to go beyond 5.1 innings in any of his starts.
Game 2: Tuesday, 6:35
- Nestor Cortes (NYY) – 6 GS, 3.50 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.000 WHIP in 36 IP
- Dean Kremer (BAL) – 5 GS, 4.61 ERA, 4.70 FIP, 1.061 WHIP in 27.1 IP
It’s still weird that one of Dan Duquette’s weird three Rule 5 picks in one year guys turned into something. Cortes lasted all of four games with the O’s in 2018, bounced around a little, and ended up back with his original organization, the Yankees, in 2021, where he was great. Cortes only made 12 starts a year ago with an ERA near 5, but at least so far this season he’s looking more like the best version of himself.
If the Orioles are going to make hay against Cortes, it’s more likely to come in the 3rd-5th inning range. He’s been very good the first time through the order before seeing batters take a big leap the second time. That lines up with what the Orioles offense has been doing this season.
Could Kremer be pitching for his spot in the rotation in this game? With Cole Irvin coming on strong lately, that could lead to Kremer ending up in the mix to be shuffled out after Bradish/Means are back in. Kremer’s 4.61 ERA for this campaign is only an 81 ERA+. He’s been giving up home runs like it’s going out of style. We’ll all have to hold our breath every time any of Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, or Giancarlo Stanton are batting against Kremer in particular.
Game 3: Wednesday, 6:35
- Luis Gil (NYY) – 5 GS, 4.01 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 1.338 WHIP in 24.2 IP
- Corbin Burnes (BAL) – 6 GS, 2.55 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 0.934 WHIP in 35.1 IP
At the risk of being a little too dramatic about it, this kind of game is why the Orioles traded for Burnes. They need a guy who they can count on to be a bulldog in a long series against a division opponent. Hard not to be happy with Burnes’s ERA to date, although I’d be happier still if he was averaging one more out per game, or if he’d struck out more than six batters in any start after his great Opening Day outing.
Up to this point, Burnes has a strikeout rate exactly identical to what he had a year ago (25.5%), which is fine but a far cry removed from the 35.6% when he won the NL Cy Young in 2021. Going back to that season, Burnes has held batters to a .199 average or lower; it’s .194 so far in 2024. He’s really good! He may be due for some BABIP-related regression, with a .225 mark up to this point. On the other hand, Burnes finished last season with a .244 BABIP, and the season before at .259, so there may not be THAT much luck in there.
At least by results so far this season, Gil is the weakest Yankees starter who the Orioles will be facing over the course of this series. As O’s fans have gotten to know this year, a guy having a 5+ ERA is no guarantee they will do well against him. Gil’s ERA isn’t even 5+! He’s only just a hair over 4. If the Orioles rotation had four guys under 4, that would be much better than what we have actually experienced to date.
Gil is striking out a ton of batters, bringing a 12.8 K/9 into the series, but his walk rate is terrible – like a 6.9 BB/9 terrible. The Orioles have NOT been walking – least walks in the AL headed into Sunday – so there’s a certain stoppable force/movable object quality to this matchup. He gave up five runs in five innings against the Brewers in his most recent start.
Game 4: Thursday, 1:05
- Carlos Rodón (NYY) – 6 GS, 2.48 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.194 WHIP in 32.2 IP
- TBD, possibly Kyle Bradish, otherwise presumably Cole Irvin (BAL)
Heading into the 2023 season, I was an advocate for the Orioles doing something crazy and opening up their wallet to sign a high-end starting pitcher, of which Rodón was high on the list two winters ago. Rodón was a combination of hurt and bad in the first year of his $162 million deal. Things are going a lot better for him this year, to the disappointment of all of us whose life force is sustained by Yankee failure.
What Orioles fans can hope for is that Rodón is benefiting from some unusually good luck in both batted balls (.253 BABIP vs. career .293) and in his performance once runners get on base (87.0% LOB vs career 74.0%). His strikeout rate is about half what it was in his most successful seasons two and three years ago, and his walk rate has increased by close to the same amount. That’s why his FIP is a lot higher than his ERA. The O’s batters will be looking to do another round of ERA elevation.
The Orioles already announced that Bradish’s next start would be in the majors after three rehab starts. His rehab is not being pushed the full distance like John Means. However, having made that announcement, they didn’t list him for this series. Maybe the Orioles want to give him an extra day of rest, maybe they don’t want to throw him right at the Yankees, maybe they like the idea of the lefty Irvin against New York, who OPSed just .673 against lefties heading into yesterday.
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Whichever games end up with the Yankees trying to protect a late lead will give the O’s a look against New York’s leverage relievers. Closer Clay Holmes has been great so far this season, with no runs allowed yet after 13 innings pitched. They’ve done a lot of bullpen shuffling already and they might need to do more, because no one else has yet looked like he deserves to be part of a trusted late-inning trio.
Like the Orioles, they do have some “it’ll be great for us if this guy pitches well” candidates, including Luke Weaver, Ian Hamilton, Ron Marinaccio, and Victor González.
The season certainly won’t be over if the Orioles don’t regain their footing over the next few days after the weekend’s stumble, but if they don’t, there’s going to be a hole to climb out of later, at a minimum.