Will the additions made by the Blue Jays pull them out of the basement of the AL East?
This week, Camden Chat is previewing the rest of the division and other expected AL contenders. We’ve already covered the Yankees and Red Sox.
The recent Blue Jays often seem like a team that should be better than it is. They just never seem to be able to put the pieces together. That’s not to say they’ve been bad. They put up a winning record every season from 2020-23 and made three playoff appearances over those four years. They lost in the Wild Card round in all three of those appearances.
Last year things went south for them in a big way as they finished 74-88 and in last place in the AL East. Outside of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. the offense was largely lackluster. The starting rotation underperformed. They finished with a run differential of -72 and they ranked in the bottom third of the AL in both runs scored and runs allowed.
The Blue Jays went into this offseason looking to extend Guerrero, their star player. But the negotiations broke down. Details came out last week where it was noted that Guerrero was hoping for $500 million over 14 years, but the Jays’ requirement to include deferrals tanked the deal. He will now be a free agent after this year unless the Blue Jays pull something off in-season.
Aside from that, the Blue Jays did add to their roster, including one big signing that Orioles fans are all too aware of. But will their changes move the needle? The Orioles play the Blue Jays to open the season next week so they’ll get the first look at the Jays upgraded lineup.
Additions and Subtractions
- Notable additions: RP Yimi García, 2B/SS Andrés Giménez, RP Jeff Hoffman, OF Anthony Santander, SP Max Scherzer, OF Myles Straw, RP Dillon Tate
- Notable subtractions: RP Jordan Romano, RP Génesis Cabrera
The Blue Jays had the offseason reputation of being in on every free agent and then losing them, but they actually did add a few players to their active roster.
The biggest contract they handed out is also the one of most interest to Orioles fans. The Jays signed former Oriole and fan favorite Anthony Santander to a five-year, $92.5M contract in mid-January. Santander will play right field and, presumably, wallop a lot of home runs for his new team.
Santander’s contract was the splashiest move the Blue Jays made this winter, but the biggest may end up being the trade for Andrés Giménez. Giménez is a few years removed from his career season when he clocked an OPS+ of 141 while playing incredible defense. His bat has fallen off since then but his defense remains top-notch. He has won the Gold Glove three years in a row and he is just 26 years old.
Max Scherzer will turn 41 years old about halfway through this season and this year marks his 18th in major league baseball. He was limited to just nine starts last year after having back surgery before the start of the 2024 season. At his age, every year is a risk. But it’s Max Scherzer. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he had a strong year. He’ll fill a hole in the rotation made by the trade of Yusei Kikuchi last season.
The Blue Jays lost Jordan Romano to the Phillies, so in return they signed former Phillie Jeff Hoffman to be their closer. Hoffman’s offseason wasn’t without controversy. He was nearly signed by both the Orioles and Braves, but both teams backed down over concerns from his physical. That didn’t stop the Blue Jays from giving him a three-year contract. We’ll see how that turns out for them.
Starting Rotation
- José Berríos
- Kevin Gausman
- Chris Bassitt
- Bowden Francis
- Max Scherzer
Multiple depth charts place Gausman above Berríos in the rotation, but Berríos has been named the Opening Day starter so that puts him at the top of the list for me. Berríos has been an above-average pitcher over his nine-year career and he has always pitched well against the Orioles. That includes last year when the Orioles went just 9-for-46 against him over two starts. So we have that to look forward to.
Scherzer is the only member of the projected rotation who was not with the Blue Jays last year. It was a choice not to try and upgrade more than that as the team’s rotation was below average last year, ranking 9th by fWAR in the American League and worst in their division (tied with the Rays).
Bassitt is a player I hoped the Orioles would before the Jays got him. He’s now in the final season of his three-year deal with the Blue Jays. His first year was good but last season he fell off quite a bit. It continues a downward trend that started with the Mets in 2022.
Francis started last year in the bullpen and moved to the rotation in early August. In nine starts he put up an ERA of 1.53 with 56 strikeouts to just seven walks. Not bad.
Bullpen
As mentioned above, Hoffman will be the closer after signing his big deal. Chad Green stepped in as closer last year when Romano went down with injury, and he’ll be back this year as Hoffman’s setup guy.
Both Ryan Burr and Erik Swanson are expected to be part of the bullpen this year but are dealing with injuries. The returned García will have a big role and also expect to see a combination of Ryan Yarbrough, Brendon Little, Nick Sandlin, Yariel Rodríguez, and Zach Pop. Former Oriole Dillon Tate signed a split contract and could see time as well.
Starting Lineup (projected)
- Bo Bichette, SS
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B
- Anthony Santander, RF
- George Springer, LF
- Daulton Varsho, CF
- Andrés Giménez, 2B
- Alejandro Kirk, C
- Will Wagner, DH
- Ernie Clement, 3B
The star of this lineup is Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., who is coming off a dominant year in which he hit .323/.396/.544 with 30 HR and 44 2B. It was a resounding bounce back from his disappointing 2023. If he comes close to his projections, he’ll be a menace to the Orioles this season.
Santander will bring pop to the lineup with his power bat, but he’s never been a high-OBP guy. Varsho and Giménez are two players whose bats are likely to hover around league average, but their outstanding defense more than justifies their spots in the lineup.
And what about Bo Bichette? From 2020-23, Bichette was great. He led the league in hits in ‘21 and ‘22. He was just 26 years old last year and things went south for him. He missed a lot of the season with a calf injury, then broke his finger in September. When he was on the field, he was awful. He OPS’d just .598 in 91 games. If he is healthy this year, I expect he’ll be more like the player who consistently put up an OPS of over .800. This is also his contract year, by the way.
This projected lineup is courtesy of MLB.com but it is crazy to me that the 35-year-old Springer would bat cleanup in this lineup. He has gotten worse every year he’s been with the Blue Jays and last year his OPS+ dropped below league average for the first time in his career. I don’t expect he’ll be much better this season and if so, he probably won’t last in that prime spot.
Will Wagner is currently the #9 prospect in the Jays’ system. He had a nice debut over 24 games last year and his scouting report indicates potential for him to be a solid offensive contributor. He came to the Jays in the Kikuchi trade last year and is the son of Hall of Famer Billy Wagner.
Projections
PECOTA: 85-77
FanGraphs: 83-79
Either of these outcomes would be a marked improvement for the Blue Jays, who won just 74 games in 2024. PECOTA places the Blue Jays in third place, behind the Orioles and Yankees. FanGraphs puts them in fourth ahead of only the Rays.
In looking at the Jays, I find a 9 to 11 game improvement to be unrealistic. Their Pythagorean record last year was one game worse than they showed in the standing. Their starting rotation hasn’t been dramatically improved. They don’t have any big prospects knocking on the door.
Their lineup does have potential for improvement with the addition of Santander and Giménez as well as the probable bounce back from Bichette. That could be their saving grace.