The Orioles already made trades to address the rotation and bullpen, but there are still plenty of holes to fill before today’s deadline.
We’re mere hours away from today’s 6 pm trade deadline, and the Orioles have already made significant strides to improve their roster. Four days ago, they kicked off their trade activity, sending long-time Oriole Austin Hays to the Phillies in exchange for bullpen flamethrower Seranthony Domínguez and reserve outfielder Cristian Pache. Hours later, they made their second deal, shipping a trio of minor leaguers to division rival Tampa in exchange for veteran starter Zach Eflin.
The two deals already represent meaningful steps toward addressing the glaring need on this team: pitching. Domínguez provides them help at the back of their bullpen with bonafide postseason experience—and put up two scoreless innings in his two appearances in orange and black. Eflin is an even bigger get for a rotation that’s struggled for depth behind Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez. The former Phillie and Ray brings 21 career starts against the O’s AL East rivals and 11 games of postseason experience, and put up a quality start in his Orioles debut vs. the Blue Jays.
Even with these moves, the current roster still seems incomplete with respect to Baltimore’s ultimate goal of making a run to the World Series. The holes on this roster have been especially evident over the month of July. Heading into the last two games of their current series with Toronto, the Orioles have already clinched their first losing month since September 2022. Heading into this Toronto series, the O’s have lost four of their last five series and have shown concerns both on the mound and at the plate.
There have already been close to 20 additional trades across the MLB since the Orioles completed their move for Eflin, meaning the trade market is still as hot as ever. The starting pitcher market has already seen the Cardinals add Erick Fedde from the White Sox, the Royals acquire former All-Star Michael Lorenzen from the Rangers and the Astros deal for former All-Star Yusei Kikuchi from the Jays. Fellow AL contenders in New York and Cleveland also made big additions to their lineups in the last several days. The Yankees sent three prospects to the Marlins for former All-Star infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. and the Guardians acquired outfielder Lane Thomas from the Nationals.
With the clock ticking on the Orioles’ window to add players from outside their system, let’s examine the biggest needs on this roster when factoring in the additions of Domínguez, Pache and Eflin.
#1: Closer
To put it bluntly, the Craig Kimbrel experiment is looking more and more like a failure with every passing outing. Heading into Monday’s doubleheader, Kimbrel ranked last on the Orioles with a -1.426 WPA during the month of July. To put that in further context, the next worst player in terms of WPA in July was Dean Kremer, who at -0.653 was nearly one whole win better than Kimbrel. Over his last four appearances, we’ve seen Kimbrel blow saves against the Yankees and Marlins and take a loss against the Padres.
Given Kimbrel’s salary and the overall depth of this bullpen, the Orioles aren’t going to outright waive Kimbrel. However, given his volatility and less than stellar record in the playoffs, acquiring competition for the nine-time All-Star should be at the top of Mike Elias’ shopping list. We’ve already seen former All-Star closer Carlos Estévez move from the Angels to the Phillies for two pitching prospects, while Yimi García and A.J. Puk moved to the Mariners and D-Backs, respectively, for similar packages.
Given the players already traded, finding the ideal target may be the biggest hurdle for the front office to clear. The A’s All-Star reliever Mason Miller was tentatively linked to the Orioles leading up to trade season, but he’s currently on the IL with a self-inflicted injury. With the Rangers seemingly being open for business, fellow All-Star Kirby Yates could be an answer—but at 37 he may be seen as not worth the prospects it’d take to acquire him. The O’s could call back the Rays and inquire about Peter Fairbanks or look to another high risk/high upside arm like Alexis Díaz or Camilo Doval. Either way, there absolutely should be an addition of a high-leverage before 6pm today.
#2: Left-handed reliever
While Kimbrel has been the bullpen’s biggest pain point of late, the rest of the relievers have been far from perfect. That’s especially true of the contingent of Cole Irvin, Keegan Akin and Cionel Pérez—the Orioles’ only current lefties in the pen. Throughout July, the current members of the O’s pen—outside of Kimbrel—combined for a WPA of 0.115. However, the right-handed relievers contributed a collective WPA of .955 while the lefties put up a concerning -0.840. We’ve seen Keegan Akin let the Mariners blow open a game on Fourth of July, witnessed Pérez hand a game to the Marlins and suffered through too many bad Cole Irvin relief appearances to count.
The name that is sure to be connected with the Orioles between now and the deadline is former O and current Marlin Tanner Scott. The former top prospect is the left-handed version of what Baltimore acquired in Domínguez—a flamethrower who relies exclusively on a fastball/slider combo. Scott has certainly been the better pitcher than Domínguez in 2024, but also comes with control concerns. Still, he’d solve two problems with one player, giving the Orioles a pitcher who can close while also upgrading their options against lefties. If Scott proves to be too expensive, the O’s could also inquire about players like Taylor Rogers of the Giants or Andrew Chafin of the Tigers.
#3: Another starter
If the playoffs started tomorrow, the top three of Burnes-Rodriguez-Eflin is probably enough to be competitive in a playoff series. It wouldn’t necessarily put the O’s in the driver’s seat of that series, but it’d give them a shot to win each of the first three games and then piece together nine innings between Dean Kremer, Albert Suárez and the pen in Game 4.
The problem is, Baltimore still has to play 55 games and use a five-man rotation before they get to the playoffs. GIven that Kremer and Suárez were two of the Orioles’ five worst players by WPA in July, replacing one of them in the rotation would certainly fill Birdland with more confidence as we enter the last two months of the regular season.
The Orioles have been connected with almost every big-name starting pitcher that’s seemingly available—names like Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Blake Snell and Jack Flaherty. The problem that Baltimore faces is those deals—especially for the likes of Skubal or Crochet—could prove to be prohibitively expensive and may only get more expensive the closer it gets to 6pm. The other problem the O’s face is that the second tier options have largely been picked through, with four deals for starting pitchers taking place just yesterday.
A deal for another starter feels at once like the most and least likely deal to get done. Adding someone like Skubal, Crochet or Snell is the move most likely to catapult the O’s to the top of the heap in the AL. And yet, giving into desperation and overpaying for those players doesn’t really gel with the calculated, pragmatic approach we’ve seen from Elias & Co. over the last five years.
#4: A right-handed bat
If you thought the splits between left and right-handed relievers were bad, then shield your eyes when it comes to the batters. Throughout July, Orioles right-handed hitters combined for a collective WPA of -1.536—with Jordan Westburg and Jorge Mateo putting up particularly rough numbers. The lefties, on the other hand, carried the offense. Even with a down month from Gunnar Henderson, the left-handed batters had a collective WPA of 1.627 (Switch-hitters Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander weren’t factored into those, and also essentially cancel each other out).
With the injury to Mateo and the trade of Hays, the Orioles are that much more desperate for an impact bat from the right side. With Coby Mayo seemingly ready to be called up any day now—and with Connor Norby getting a chance as a full-time start in Mateo’s absence—it seems more likely that this issue is addressed internally rather than externally. Still, should the right deal fall into place, don’t be surprised to see the O’s add a bat at the deadline.