It’s all on the line Saturday.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) come to Baltimore to face the Ravens (9-5) at 4:30 p.m. at M&T Bank Stadium with first place in the AFC North up for grabs.
A win by the Steelers would clinch the division title since Pittsburgh could not finish worse than 11-6 and would own the head-to-head tiebreaker with a season sweep of its archrival. However, a win by the Ravens opens the door for an exciting finish to the regular season.
Pittsburgh has already clinched a playoff spot, while Baltimore is a virtual lock to make it at 99%, according to Next Gen Stats. So although this matchup does not carry the weight of an elimination game, winning the division guarantees a home game in the wild-card round of the playoffs, likely against either the Denver Broncos or Los Angeles Chargers.
With a Baltimore win Saturday, the Ravens and Steelers would split the season series and have identical 10-5 records entering the final two games of the regular season. If both teams finish with the same record, the next tiebreaker would be best win-loss-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Pittsburgh ends its season with home games against the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals, while the Ravens play at the Houston Texans and host the Cleveland Browns. There’s the added twist of both Baltimore and Pittsburgh playing on Christmas Day, with Steelers vs. Chiefs kicking off at 1 p.m. and Ravens vs. Texans to follow at 4:30 p.m. in a first-of-its-kind doubleheader on Netflix.
Entering Week 16, the Ravens are 2-2 against AFC North opponents while the Steelers are 3-1. So if Baltimore beats Pittsburgh on Saturday, they would both be 3-2 in the division heading into their final AFC North matchup in Week 18.
The third tiebreaker is best win-loss-tied percentage in common games. Their common opponents are the Browns, Bengals, Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers, Broncos, Cowboys, Giants, Commanders and Eagles. The Ravens are 7-4 against that group with a game against Cleveland remaining, while the Steelers are 7-3 with the Chiefs and Bengals still to come.
Here’s a look at the other tiebreakers and where each team stands, according to the NFL’s official standings:
Best win-loss-tied percentage in games played within the conference
Ravens: 5-4 (.555)
Steelers: 7-2 (.777)
Strength of victory in all games (combined record of all teams beaten)
Ravens: .516
Steelers: .420
Strength of schedule in all games (combined record of all opponents)
Ravens: .538
Steelers: .438
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
Ravens: 12th
Steelers: 8th
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games
Ravens: 25th
Steelers: 16th
Best net points in common games
TBD
Best net points in all games
Ravens: +86
Steelers: +71
Best net touchdowns in all games
Ravens: +16
Steelers: +2
Coin toss
That’s right. Heads or tails?
Have a news tip? Contact sports editor C.J. Doon at cdoon@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/CJDoon.