Tuesday’s deadline is coming, and the O’s are still connected to a number of names.
It’s already been a busy trade deadline for Mike Elias and the Orioles. The front office has—at least moderately—addressed the team’s needs in the bullpen and the rotation. Zach Eflin and Seranthony Domínguez both make the Orioles better, although there remains room for improvement.
Apparently, Elias agrees. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported over the weekend that the Orioles were still working the phones in search of deals. Rosenthal stopped short of saying that the O’s were targeting specific players, but rather that they had a few archetypes in mind, and then went on to name some options.
MLB Trade Rumors added on the reporting to help flesh out the list of potential fits. Specifically, they tossed around a few left-handed relievers, something that Rosenthal indicated the Orioles wanted but—for whatever reason—he did not expand on.
As a thought exercise, let’s examine all of those names further:
Jack Flaherty, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Flaherty checks a lot of boxes for what the Orioles are said to be searching for. The 28-year-old is on an expiring contract, so the cost to get him should be relatively low. On top of that, he has been one of the AL’s better pitchers this season. Over 18 games he has a 2.95 ERA and has struck out 133 over 106.2 innings. There’s no signs of slowing down either. Flaherty has a 1.53 ERA and .427 OPS against in July.
The problem, though, is rather obvious. The Orioles traded for Flaherty a year ago. He came to Baltimore, looked good in his first start, and then struggled (6.75 ERA over 34.2 innings). Now, the current version of Flaherty appears far more impactful than the version the O’s added last deadline, and the idea comparing the two could be flawed. But if Flaherty were to struggle again, it would sting extra.
Yusei Kikuchi, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Two intra-division trades in one deadline? Teams don’t seem to care about that too much anymore. And if the Orioles aren’t scared of giving prospects to the Rays of all teams, then they should be fine with dealing to the Blue Jays.
Kikuchi’s topline numbers are rough: 4.75 ERA, 85 ERA+, 1.340 WHIP. But under the hood there are things to like. The 33-year-old lefty is striking out 10.1 per nine innings, walking 2.3 per nine innings and has experienced some brutal batted ball luck (.340 BABIP). His 3.64 FIP and 3.39 xFIP indicate that some positive regression should be coming his way.
Blake Snell, LHP, San Francisco Giants
Snell has had a weird season. He didn’t sign with the Giants until late in the spring (March 19), debuted on April 8, struggled, missed a month from late April to late May, came back for three starts, and then was out again from early June to early July. But he has looked like his vintage self since this recent return. Over four starts he has 0.75 ERA and has racked up 30 strikeouts in 24 innings.
Rosenthal reports that Snell is planning to opt out of his contract after this year. That could make him more enticing on the trade market, and despite his topsy-turvy campaign he has a clear pedigree. But there is risk. If Snell gets injured he could elect to take his player option for 2025, worth $30 million. The Orioles have room to spend, but you can understand that they would prefer to spend on players that actually, well, play.
Frankie Montas, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
This is the least exciting and probably least expensive player named in the report, at least in terms of prospect cost. This is not the Montas that finished sixth in AL Cy Young voting back in 2021. The 31-year-old righty owns a 5.01 ERA, 4.91 FIP, and 85 ERA+ this season. It’s not great. In this case, there aren’t even peripherals to get excited about.
If the goal is to get someone that just eats innings, Montas can probably do a job, although he is averaging less than five innings per starter (19 starts, 93.1 innings). But this is not someone to slot in-between Grayson Rodriguez and Eflin in the rotation. Montas might not even jump in front of Dean Kremer. It would simply be a warm body that you feel only slightly better about than the rookie duo of Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott this season.
Tommy Pham, OF, Chicago White Sox
The Orioles are said to want a right-handed hitting outfielder, and apparently they don’t feel that Cristian Pache’s 59 OPS+ is good enough. Who would have thought? That is where the Pham connection comes in. The White Sox stink, and there is no reason for them to hold onto a player like Pham beyond Tuesday.
Pham is a proven, veteran hitter. He owns a career .259/.349/.431 batting line, which is pretty good. He has been worse than that this season (.266/.330/.380), but in a season of depressed offense league-wide, that is still solid (102 OPS+). In addition to his bat, Pham could offer the presence of an experienced player that just helped a young Diamondbacks team reach the World Series a season ago. Pham himself was quite good for the Dbacks during that postseason run (.772 OPS, three home runs).
But the defensive fit is tough to understand. Pham has played all three outfield spots this season in Chicago. He would be unlikely to see time in center with the Orioles, but he grades out poorly in both of the corner spots. That weakness would, presumably, be exposed further in Camden Yards’ cavernous left field.
Kevin Pillar, OF, Los Angeles Angels
It’s nearly impossible to find a player that better fits what the Orioles are after in a position player at this deadline. Pillar is a veteran, he’s right handed, he can play a slick center field, and whatever team adds him would only pay the pro-rated amount of his $1 million salary.
Pillar’s bat has even been good this season. The 35-year-old has a .287/.343/.481 slash line with seven home runs, well above what his offensive reputation has been for much of his career. Those numbers are even better against southpaws (.375/.416/.625). And while he isn’t known to steal bases, Pillar still boasts impressive foot speed that could come in handy during the playoffs.
Tanner Scott, LHP, Miami Marlins
The former Oriole is having himself a fine season, as we just saw last week when the O’s were in Miami. He has a 1.18 ERA and 53 strikeouts over 44 innings. The hard-throwing lefty has also walked 27 in that time. His peripherals show that he has not actually been as good as his ERA indicates (3.24 FIP), but would stillbe plenty good enough to be considered the Orioles top lefty in the ‘pen.
Scott is a rare commodity in this trade market. He is a pending free agent, he’s left-handed, and he is capably of striking batters out with regularity. That could inflate his cost to the point where the Orioles aren’t interested. But the fit is clear.
Andrew Chafin, LHP, Detroit Tigers
Chafin does not bring the power like Scott, but actually strikes more batters out. His slider-first approach has him sitting down 12.2 batters per nine. Admittedly, his 1.378 WHIP is a little scary, but he keeps the ball in the park (0.5 home runs per nine).
There are splits to be worried about with Chafin. He dominates lefties (.180/.261/.213), but gets knocked around by righties (.293/.366/.390). At least the power numbers are low for both, but this still isn’t a guy you want facing Aaron Judge in a close game.
Jalen Beeks, LHP, Colorado Rockies
Beeks has spent plenty of time in the AL East. His career started in Boston back in 2018, before he moved to Tampa through last season. The results this season are middling. He has a 95 ERA+ and a 1.358 WHIP. Similar to Chafin, he owns fellow lefties (.182/.274/.255) and has trouble against righties (.293/.347/.444)
Everything is relative, though. Beeks should be pretty cheap, and if the Orioles only want to use him against lefties (as much as that is possible with modern rules), it could still make sense. But he is not the Craig Kimbrel insurance plan that many may want.
Taylor Rogers, LHP, San Francisco Giants
Rogers was an Orioles draft pick way back in 2009. He didn’t sign, instead attending college before going much higher in the draft in 2012. The 33-year-old is nine seasons into his big league career at this point and has taken the well-worn reliever path of bouncing around to various organizations. He was an all-star back in 2021 and has been quite consistent throughout his stops.
Rogers’ strikeouts are down this season, but he still punches out 9.9 per nine innings while he walks only 2.8 per nine. His sidearm delivery is actually tougher on right-handed batters. They are hitting only .209/.258/.385 against Rogers this season whereas lefties are at .281/.370/.406. Along with Scott, he is one of the few late-innings options being connected to the O’s. Rogers has 83 career saves, although the last time he closed with regularity was in 2022 with the Padres.
Adding three more players would be a lot to get done for Elias, and it would represent a rather significant roster turnover for a division-leading team in the middle of the season. But it’s appreciated to see that the front office is aware and willing to plug the clear holes that are on the roster.
If these are the sorts of names on the Orioles radar, it would seem clear that they will continue to hold all of their big-name prospects. It should not cost anyone like Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo, or Samuel Basallo to add the players discussed here.
Related to that, the chatter around a high-profile addition like Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet has noticeably died down. That is likely a result of Skubal’s massive cost and the report that Crochet refuses to pitch in the postseason without a contract extension. Beyond those two, there are not many clear rotation upgrades to be had. In that light, the Orioles may have struck gold by bringig in Eflin and his additional year under contract already
Ultimately, the Orioles will go as far as their in-house talent can take them. That means Corbin Burnes will need to stay on his Cy Young trajectory, Grayson Rodriguez will need to improve on his sophomore gains, and the entire offense has to work out of its July-long funk. The additions at the deadline will serve to shore up the team’s floor, but they don’t push up the ceiling much. That will fall on the stars that have been in the organization all season long.