The Orioles front office assembled a pitching staff that should be fine. But to make a World Series run, most of the pressure will be put on an offense that has been built from the ground up by Mike Elias.
The Orioles are set to enter 2025 with relatively lofty expectations. No longer is a simple playoff berth acceptable. They’ve done that twice in a row. Now, they need to actually win in October, and take advantage of having (arguably) the best homegrown core in MLB. But making the playoffs is no guarantee, and in order for the team to get back to the postseason in the first place, they will need to count on the offense to do most of the heavy lifting.
Mike Elias and the Orioles’ front office have built the team’s starting rotation to be…deep. Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Dean Kremer should all be fine major league starters in 2025. They might even have individual moments of brilliance. Albert Suárez, Cade Povich, and Trevor Rogers may not thrill you every fifth day, but they are nice fill-in options to have at your disposal. If and when Kyle Bradish returns from Tommy John surgery is the variable that could total change the picture.
This overall level of unremarkable competence is reflected in some of the projections made about the 2025 Orioles to this point. FanGraphs, for example, projects the O’s to allow 4.50 runs per game, tied for 22nd in MLB. Runs allowed are not only the fault of the starting staff, but it is a reasonable proxy. Being projected to finish in the bottom third of the league is a bit worrisome, but not entirely shocking after losing Corbin Burnes in free agency.
The bet that the front office has likely made is some combination of: the pitchers they have in-house can be slightly better than projections, Bradish will return at some point and make a positive impact, and there will be an intriguing trade to be made at some point between now and the end of July. Those sorts of things could make this staff into a relatively league average group, something similar to what they had a season ago.
Recent history shows us that teams can win the World Series with mediocre pitching staffs. The 2024 Dodgers were a juggernaut, but not because of their pitchers. They dealt with injuries all season long, and ultimately had a middle-of-the-pack type of staff. It was a similar story for the 2023 Rangers, who lost Jacob deGrom to injury early on and got by with a group of solid but unremarkable arms.
Those two teams won anyway because their pitchers were good enough and their offenses were machines that had the ability to score in bunches. It seems like the 2025 Orioles are hoping to follow that blueprint.
We know that the Orioles are good enough to be that sort of force on offense. It was on display for most of 2024. Through July of last season, the O’s were the most powerful lineup in the sport. They led the league in slugging (.455) and home runs (171), and they were third in runs scored (553). The team fell off in the final two months, but still ended up in the top five of most categories for the season.
If we are really looking through orange-tinted glasses, there is even room for improvement. Bringing the left field wall in slightly should help guys like Ryan Mountcastle and newbie Tyler O’Neill. Jackson Holliday is likely to improve from a rocky rookie campaign. Jordan Westburg will hopefully be healthy all season. And it feels impossible for Adley Rutschman to be as bad as he was in August and September last year.
At the same time, you cannot simply wave away all of the things that went badly late last season. It happened. It’s part of the narrative, and we cannot assume that flipping the calendar to 2025 has sorted everything out. And while we should hope (expect?) some of the guys that struggled last year to bounce back, we could just as easily see the guys that excelled end up dipping slightly. Gunnar Henderson is terrific, but can be an 8-9 WAR player every season? It’s a lot to ask.
Back to FanGraphs. They like the Orioles offense. Their projection has the O’s scoring 4.63 runs per game, the sixth-best mark in MLB. But that would represent a decrease from 2024, when they scored 4.85 runs per game. It’s tough to understand why the offense would be worse this time around. Losing Anthony Santander hurts, but his replacement O’Neill and the increased role of Heston Kjerstad should stem most of that, especially if offenses across the league bounce back from a down season.
The good news is that the 2025 Orioles probably don’t have to be as dominant of an offensive club as they were in the first half of 2024 in order to improve their overall outcome. As it stands, most of league’s talent is concentrated in the NL. Meanwhile, the AL feels deep, but lacking a clear top team. There is room for the Orioles to take control.
But the offense will absolutely need to be more consistent. Another second half collapse is unacceptable. And counting on the pitching staff to be as resilient as it was in 2024 would be misguided. That sort of outcome just does not happen often.
The 2025 season will be an interesting test for Elias and his grand plan. The organization has prioritized drafting and developing hitters under his watch. It has led to oodles of regular season wins, and produced several burgeoning superstars, but the ultimate goal of postseason success is still to come. That will hopwfully change in the season ahead, or some tough questions will be on the horizon.