The Orioles struck out on a pair of trade acquisitions over the last two seasons. Jack Flaherty bounced back in a big way last season. Can Trevor Rogers do the same?
The Orioles made a front-page trade by acquiring Corbin Burnes last offseason. Mike Elias failed to replicate the move at the following trade deadline, but Baltimore acquired several players that will continue to make an impact in 2025. Unfortunately, none of the players are projected to contribute like Burnes.
The Birds took a swing at resigning Burnes this offseason, but the 30-year-old opted to join the Diamondbacks in Arizona. Halfway through the month of January, the Orioles have yet to acquire a top of the rotation starter. The O’s elected to fill out the bottom of the rotation with Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano while the top-tier free agents joined other clubs.
The Orioles could trade for Dylan Cease or Luis Castillo, but it’s difficult to bank on a deal of that magnitude. Baltimore could explore the few remaining starters on the market, but don’t hold your breath. Elias can turn to the fans at the Birdland Caravan and say, “sorry kids, we have Jack Flaherty at home.”
Elias acquired Flaherty at the deadline in 2023. The righty received Cy Young buzz early in his career, but he posted below average numbers in the first half of that season (4.43 ERA, 1.550 WHIP, 98 ERA+). Flaherty arrived in Baltimore, made seven starts, and pitched his way out of the rotation before the end of the second half.
One year later, Baltimore found itself in need of pitching help once again. The Birds knocked it out of the park with the Zach Eflin deal, but that wasn’t the only swing Elias took. The Orioles traded fan favorites Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers to Miami in exchange for Trevor Rogers.
Rogers was named an All-Star and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting in 2021. He posted relatively underwhelming numbers in the first half of 2024 (4.53 FIP, 1.528 WHIP, 100 ERA+) before joining the Orioles at the deadline. The lefty arrived, made four starts, and pitched his way off the roster for the remainder of the season. Sound familiar?
Flaherty reached free agency at the end of 2023, and the Orioles made no effort to resign him. Rogers, unlike Flaherty, remained under team control. Baltimore didn’t want another year of Flaherty, so why would it benefit from more time with Rogers? Take one look at how Flaherty bounced back in 2024.
The 29-year-old signed a one-year deal with the Tigers and proceed to go 7-5 with a 2.95 ERA, 0.956 WHIP and 138 ERA+ over 18 starts. The Dodgers acquired Flaherty last July, and the righty continued to impress during a World Series run in LA.
The Orioles could have used that version of Flaherty in 2023, but they didn’t get it. Now, they hope to be on the receiving end of a bounceback with Rogers in 2025.
Both Flaherty and Rogers missed significant time with injuries the year before joining the Orioles. Flaherty made only nine appearances in 2022 while battling multiple shoulder issues, and Rogers managed only four starts in 2023 due to bicep and lat injuries.
Both pitchers appeared to run of gas by the dog days of summer the following year. Rogers averaged three ticks lower on his fastball in 2024, and his hard hit percentage jumped 10 points from 2023. Flaherty managed to keep his velocity relatively steady between years, but he struggled with control. The former Cardinal posted a 10.9 walk percentage in 2023 before reducing the number to 5.9% last season.
There’s no guarantee that Rogers returns to form, but Elias made the deal with more than 2024 in mind. Rogers will remain under team control until 2027, and he should be fresh by the time spring training rolls around.
Morton and Sugano will likely fill out the rotation while Rogers starts the year at Norfolk, but the Orioles know that rotational depth matters now more than ever. Rogers will have an opportunity to pitch his way back to prominence in 2025, and the Orioles have at least one reason to believe it could happen.