The Orioles are preparing for another playoff push in 2025, but that doesn’t mean that every element of spring training is important.
Orioles baseball is back in our lives, even if it is the spring training version. That means that from now through the end of September—and hopefully even longer—we will have games to watch, highlights to replay, and box scores to scour. It feels good!
That said, Grapefruit League action is not the same as what we see during the regular season. The roster composition can be wonky, players have varying in-game goals, and managers have concerns other than winning most days.
The number of variables can make it tough to determine if someone is having a “good” spring training or a disastrous one. So, let’s take a run through Orioles camp and sort out what matters and what doesn’t over the next five weeks in Sarasota.
Matters: Félix Bautista’s velocity and comfort
The O’s closer is coming off of Tommy John surgery that he underwent in late 2023. Most indications are that he has had a smooth rehabilitation to this point, and he should be ready for Opening Day. But the team is slow-playing things for now.
Bautista tossed his first live batting practice over the weekend. Reportedly, his fastball has been in the mid-90s, rather than exceeding 100 as he was prior to the surgery. It’s still early in camp, and Bautista himself said that he felt “85%” to begin camp. There is time for him to build up.
The team has said that Bautista won’t play in a game until late in spring. For now, we only have bullpens and reports to judge. Hopefully things continue to progress in a promising manner.
Doesn’t matter: Just about every stat line
OK, you can never totally discount how a player performs in an actual game scenario. Obviously, you would rather they play well than struggle. But the outcomes of these games are far from a 1-to-1 for the regular season.
Just last year, we saw Kyle Stowers lead the Orioles with seven home runs and a .744 slugging percentage in the spring. When the summer arrived, he could barely get on the field and is now fighting for his place in another organization.
A year ago, Anthony Santander had a .200/.231/.520 slash line in camp. He turned things on for the regular season, blasted 44 home runs, and landed himself a life-altering contract with the Blue Jays a few weeks ago.
These are spring oddities that result from the circumstances this time of year. The talent and experience that gets into a spring game is wide-ranging, from teenagers that are being given exposure to 15-year veterans that are mostly knocking the rust off. There are additional layers too. One day a player might be testing out a new stance . Another they might literally be taking every pitch just to lock in on release points. Scouting the box score is always dicey, but even more so in February and March.
Matters: Tomoyuki Sugano’s adaptation
The Orioles gave Sugano a one-year, $13-million deal this winter. That reflects the club’s expectations for the 35-year-old “rookie”: A back-half rotation piece that can put up solid numbers over ~150 innings or so.
The point about spring stats above holds true here. There will be no reason to panic over any potential ugly outings, just as we shouldn’t overly celebrate his reportedly impressive first bullpen. If he’s healthy, the guy is going to make the Opening Day roster regardless of performance. But it would be pretty lame (and ultimately untrue) to suggest that his first stateside spring was pointless.
There is plenty to accomplish for Sugano in Sarasota. Perhaps most crucial will be building up chemistry with his catchers and his coaches. Struggles will happen in a 162-game season. Being able to lean on your clubhouse is crucial to get through it, especially in your debut season. Early indications are that Sugano is adjusting well.
Doesn’t matter: Almost any perceived “roster battle”
It would be false to say that the Orioles’ Opening Day roster is entirely “set.” There is always jostling to be done, injuries can happen, and it’s even possible that a trade gets pulled off. But as you look up and down the squad, the amount of wiggle room on the projected major league roster is limited.
We know that Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Charlie Morton, and Sugano are going to be in the rotation. One would assume Dean Kremer is making the cut as well. Maybe Cade Povich or Albert Suárez could sneak in there, but it’s a long shot.
Suárez should slot into the bullpen as a multi-inning option if he misses out on the rotation. The other seven arms out there feel pretty good and deep: Bautista, Yennier Cano, Andrew Kittredge, Seranthony Domínguez, Keegan Akin, Gregory Soto, and Cionel Pérez.
As for the position players, that is perfectly packed at the moment.
Adley Rutschman and Gary Sánchez will be behind the plate. Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn man first base. Jackson Holliday is expected to start at second. Jordan Westburg is your third baseman. And of course Gunnar Henderson stars at short stop. With Jorge Mateo on the IL to start the season, that leaves Ramón Urías as the utility fielder.
And then your outfield is some combination of Cedric Mullins, Tyler O’Neill, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, and Ramón Laureano.
There is no room for any one else. No fliers. No late waiver claims. It’s a full house.
We should not dismiss the possibility of someone like Rodolfo Martinez making a play for a relief role since that is always a volatile position group. But other places on the roster? That is unlikely to change, no matter how well someone like Coby Mayo or Samuel Basallo may perform this spring.
Matters: Player health
This is, without a doubt, the most crucial element of the spring. Let’s make sure that everyone makes it out of Sarasota as fit as possible. That could mean something different things for every player.
Some older players could prefer an extra day off here or there throughout the spring to get their body right. Let them have it. It could mean that someone working back from an injury ramps up slower and might even need a minor league rehab stint to begin the season. Do it.
We know (or at least, we think we know) that this Orioles teams is talented, and they seem poised to make another postseason push. It would be silly to upend that potential by pushing too hard in March.