Stats, analysis, commentary.
Some day in the future — hopefully not too distant a future — the Washington Wizards will do what the Golden State Warriors did to them: mostly play like crap and win anyway because the opponent is just that bad.
The Wizards lost their 12th straight (the NBA’s longest current losing streak) because of a dismal third quarter. In the third, they shot 7-25 from the floor and committed six turnovers. That tallied to an offensive rating (points per possession x 100) of just 63. They paired the offensive ineptitude with sloppy defense (Golden State’s ortg in the period was 136), and ended up getting outscored by 21 in the period.
“Sloppy” was the operative word for the night. Washington shot the ball decently (55.9% effective field goal percentage) but had 20 turnovers, including six each from Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole.
Golden State regularly commits high numbers of turnovers because their offensive system has players cutting and moving and passing and receiving passes at breakneck speeds. From the floor, they started and ended cold but scorched the nets in between when they opened up a lead as big as 23.
The Wizards took advantage of what former Wizards assistant coach called “the slacking off effect” to trim the Warriors’ lead to as little as 10 points in the final period, but they were not threats to actually win the game.
Looking ahead, the next four games will be a challenge with road games against the Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, and Utah Jazz. They come home to face the Orlando Magic. My prediction machine has them as decisive underdogs in all four. If that holds up, they’ll go into their next “expected” win (March 6 against the Charlotte Hornets) on a 16-game losing streak.
Musings & Observations
- Tyus Jones had the kind of solid and efficient game that leaves fans feeling underwhelmed but actually would help a team win if…well…the roster was a bit better. He had 14 points on 6-11 shooting, 6 rebounds, 17 assists, 2 steals and just 1 turnover. In a game they lost by 11, the Wizards were +5 in Jones’ 36 minutes of action.
- Marvin Bagley III finished well inside, hit a three, and defended decently at times. He finished with 20 points, 9 rebounds and 2 blocks.
- With Deni Avdija and Bilal Coulibaly sidelined with injuries, Corey Kispert got the start. He shot well, dished 5 assists and had a pair of blocks. He also had 3 turnovers. Still, decent game from the wing.
- Kyle Kuzma had his usual array of impressive moves, and he shot the ball well — 59.5% efg. His offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) was just 95, however because of a whopping six turnovers.
- Jordan Poole was abysmal — 5-17 from the floor and six turnovers. His ortg was 62 on a usage rate of 31.3%. He did come up with a few defensive plays, which was good too see. He also got hit with a technical foul for complaining to the refs after getting called for an obvious carry.
Four Factors
Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).
Stats & Metrics
Below are a few performance metrics, including the Player Production Average (PPA) Game Score. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).
Game Score (GmSC) converts individual production into points on the scoreboard. The scale is the same as points and reflects each player’s total contributions for the game. The lowest possible GmSC is zero.
PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.
POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.
ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.
USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.
ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.
+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.
