Stats, analysis, commentary
The Wizards committed to tanking for a tie with the Utah Jazz for the NBA’s worst record this season. All established veterans were stripped from the rotation. None were added back even when two-way forward JT Thor was a late scratch, which left them with just seven players available. A string of wacky and improbable plays — including a buzzer-beater from Bub Carrington, who doesn’t turn 20 for another 99 days.
Utah will probably lose to the Minnesota Timberwolves, which will leave the Wizards with the NBA’s second worst record. That doesn’t change their chances of getting the top pick in the upcoming draft (still 14%) — it means they could drop all the way to sixth in a worst case scenario instead of fifth. Hopefully the basketball gods grant Washington lottery favor as a reward for their (semi) ethical tanking.
Against the Miami Heat, the Wizards had just seven players available. The oldest and most experienced of them was 23-year-old Justin Champagnie, who was recently converted to a full NBA contract from the two-way deal he had most of the season. Champagnie, who just completed his fourth NBA season, has 1,890 career minutes — 71% of which came this season.
For comparison, Carrington played 2,458 minutes this season.
Towards the end of the third quarter, we got into a conversation on the Playback stream about the worst lineup head coach Brian Keefe could put on the floor in the final period, settling on Carrington, Champagnie, AJ Johnson, Tristan Vukcevic, and Colby Jones. Keefe kept that group out there the entire quarter, and they were outscored by seven. Securing the loss would have required getting outscored by nine, however.
The final few minutes got wacky. Miami’s Josh Christopher, who had an otherwise excellent final quarter (15 points, 3 rebounds, an assist and 3 steals), missed a transition dunk, and then committed a backcourt violation when the Heat need simply to inbound the ball successfully and maybe make a couple free throws to lock in the win.
Instead, the Wizards got the ball to Carrington with under five seconds to play, Carrington made a nifty behind-the-back dribble drive and hit a tough shot over two Miami defenders. The ball left his hand with just a tenth of a second on the clock and squeaked in for the first buzzer beating game-winner of his career.
Bright Spots and Observations
- Champagnie scored 17 first-half points and finished with 27 points (including 5-9 from three), 4 rebounds, 2 assists, a steal and 2 blocks. His offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) was an excellent 139 (league average this season is 114.6).
- Tristan Vukcevic scored a career-high 28 points and added 11 rebounds and 5 assists. His shooting was superb — 9-12 from the floor, 4-6 from three. One negative: 4 of Washington’s 11 turnovers.
- Alex Sarr was productive in his 16 minutes on the floor — 10 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists and a steal.
- Carrington’s late-game heroics overshadowed an otherwise forgettable shooting afternoon. The glory stats line looks good: 15 points, 7 rebounds, 9 assists and just 1 turnover. But he shot just 6-18 and 3-9 from deep.
- Colby Jones had 20 points, 10 rebounds and 4 assists. His overall performance was pretty meh — 9-18 from the floor, no made threes, a pair of turnovers. That tallied to a subpar 97 ortg.
- AJ Johnson played the full 48 minutes. He had 8 assists to 2 turnovers.
- Miami’s Jaime Jaquez Jr. scored a career high 41 points to go with 10 rebounds and 7 assists.
Next up for the Wizards is the NBA Draft Lottery on May 12. May the odds ever be in their favor.
Four Factors
Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).
The four factors are measured by:
- eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
- OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
- TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
- FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
In the table below are the four factors using the percentages and rates traditionally presented. There’s also a column showing league average in each of the categories to give a sense of each team’s performance relative to the rest of the league this season.
Stats & Metrics
Below are a few performance metrics. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).
PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.
POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.
ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.
USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.
ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.
+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.
Players are sorted by total production in the game.