The Wizards can make up Kuzma’s scoring role quite easily. The issue is what kind of players would return in a trade.
When the offseason discourse turns to the Washington Wizards possibly trading Kyle Kuzma, I keep hearing and seeing variations on the theme that the Wizards will have to “find some way” to make up for his scoring.
Let me just say the following: stop it.
Yes, he does score a lot of points. But no, making up for his scoring if they trade him simply isn’t a concern.
I’m not going too deep on efficiency, because I’ve written about his poor efficiency several times in the past. To summarize: he’s been inefficient on offense in all seven of his professional seasons, he’s been inefficient on offense regardless of his teammates or role (including when he played with Lebron James and Anthony Davis), and he’s been inefficient on offense whether at moderate usage (what he got his first four seasons), or at higher usage (the last three).
And his efficiency relative to average has gotten worse since he arrived in Washington, not better.
This shows up at the lineup level as well. Over the past three seasons combined, the Wizards offense has been about the same whether he’s on the floor or not (about 0.2 points per 100 possessions worse when he’s on the floor). Their defense has been worse when he’s out there (by about 2.5 points per 100 possessions), which means overall they’ve performed worse when he’s on the floor than when he sits.
Sure, he’s played with crummy teammates and bad lineups and suspect coaching. Among the more suspect coaching decisions: granting someone as inefficient as Kuzma has been the role of a primary offensive initiator.
In other words, his scoring is empty calories — the kind of thing that happens when a player guzzles possessions without anyone being much concerned with the outcomes.
It may not sound like it, but I actually like Kuzma. He’s a good guy, and his leadership, desire to be in Washington, and willingness to mentor younger teammates have genuine value to the Wizards. He has good size and mobility and skills, and he plays hard most of the time.
I think he’d have value to a contending team that could use some offensive punch off the bench because a) good teams can typically afford inefficient offense from a 6th or 7th man, and b) his efficiency may tick up a bit going against reserves instead of starters.
My point here is about the thinking from fans, analysts, and possibly front office decision-makers (and I hope this kind of thinking isn’t in the heads of Michael Winger, Will Dawkins or Travis Schlenk). I get liking players and having favorites. I understand needing someone to root for in a season as godforsaken as the 2023-24 15-win debacle.
But when it comes to plotting next steps and building for the future, the ability to accurately assess the quality and value of players is critical. Thinking the Wizards will need to compensate for Kuzma’s scoring if they trade him profoundly overrates him as a player, and flies in the face of the team’s experience with Kuzma playing a leading role in the offense for the past three seasons.
Kuzma’s a decent NBA player and a good guy. That’s fine, but he’ll also be 29 years old, and what he does is highly replaceable. His greatest value to the Wizards isn’t his scoring, it’s what they can get for him in a trade. As the team builds towards something they hope is good in 3-5 years, they need future assets — not a mid-level player who’ll be aging out of the league by the time they’re any good.