Stats, analysis, commentary
Last night’s matchup between the Wizards and Orlando Magic promised to be something of a rock fight, and for the first half, it was. Then the Magic blew it open in the third quarter, ran their lead as high as 26 points, and coasted home with a comfortable 20-point win.
Offense was an adventure for both teams, especially in the first half. That made sense considering these have been the two worst offensive teams in the NBA this season. A key difference, which showed in the second half, is that Orlando entered the night second in defense while Washington ranked 29th.
None of Washington’s starters played well. Jordan Poole was the “best” starter — he needed 16 shots to score 16 points. His offensive rating was 96, which is a) atrocious, and b) still solidly better than the efficiency from most of his teammates. Of the eight Wizards who played real (non-garbage time) minutes last night, only Bub Carrington’s 114 offensive rating cracked league average. League average: 113.9.
It didn’t help Washington that Khris Middleton, Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon, and Alex Sarr missed the game due to injuries and injury management. On the other hand, Orlando was missing defensive stalwart and “little things” king Jalen Suggs, as well as professional nervensäge, Moritz Wagner.
Bright Spots for the Wizards?
- Bub Carrington posted 13 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 turnovers in 29 minutes. His efficiency was right at league average despite missing all four of his three-point attempts. Overall, not a bad night for the 19-year-old.
- Tristan Vukcevic had another productive night — 12 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists and a block in 19 minutes. He needs to do better than the three turnovers he committed.
- The Wizards have a theoretically winnable game tonight against the Brooklyn Nets. It just might be win number 10.
Four Factors
Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).
The four factors are measured by:
- eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
- OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
- TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
- FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
In the table below are the four factors using the percentages and rates traditionally presented. There’s also a column showing league average in each of the categories to give a sense of each team’s performance relative to the rest of the league this season.
Stats & Metrics
Below are a few performance metrics. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).
PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.
POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.
ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.
USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.
ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.
+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.
Players are sorted by total production in the game.