Michigan State and Maryland are the favorites to win the tournament.
The Big Ten regular season brought multiple surprises over the last few months.
Purdue gave up its spot atop the conference for the first time in two years, while Michigan State staked its claim as the conference’s best team and won the Big Ten regular season title for the first time in five seasons.
Maryland was perhaps the biggest surprise in the Big Ten this season, rising eight spots from the preseason media poll projections to earn the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament. Indiana was projected to be the second-best team in conference but finished ninth with an NCAA Tournament berth in question.
But regular season results matter little in a single-elimination tournament. This year’s Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis features a new 15-team format, with nine teams receiving a first-round bye and four teams earning a double-bye.
Here are the favorites, some sleepers and potential upsets presented by FanDuel Sportsbook.
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- Minimum of +100 odds
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Michigan State is the favorite for the first time since 2019
The Spartans hold the No. 1-seed in the Big Ten Tournament for the first time in six years and, at +250, are the clear favorites to go the distance.
Michigan State, which ranks No. 7 in the Associated Press top-25 poll, is a defense-first team. The Spartans allow the third-least points per game (67.0) in the conference while averaging the most blocks (4.7) and second-most rebounds per game (40.0).
Their offense certainly has its pitfalls, though, as the Spartans have the lowest 3-point percentage (30.2%) and commit the fifth-most turnovers per game (11.7) in the Big Ten. Senior guard Jaden Akins leads the team with 12.9 points per game, but mirrors much of Michigan State’s offensive limitations, shooting 29.6% from 3-point range.
At +430, Maryland has the second-best odds to win the tournament. The Terps are the most well-rounded team in the conference, ranking top three in points (81.5) and points allowed per game (66.6). They also led the conference with a 14.9 point differential.
Maryland’s starting five — known as ‘The Crab Five’ — all average at least 12 points per game. Freshman Derik Queen heads the lineup with his 15.7 points and 9.2 rebounds per game, while senior Julian Reese adds a veteran presence beside him in the frontcourt, averaging 13.2 points and 9.3 rebounds per game.
The Terps also only narrowly lost to Michigan State two weeks ago, when Tre Holloman hit a beyond-half-court shot to win the game.
Wisconsin headlines a group of potential sleepers
Wisconsin held third place in the conference standings just over a week ago, but a loss at Michigan State and a tough home defeat to Penn State pushed the Badgers to the No. 5 seed. They still have the third-best odds at +600, though, with wins over No. 6-seed Purdue and No. 7-seed Illinois in the regular season.
Wisconsin has two elite scorers in John Tonje, who averages 18.9 points per game, and John Blackwell, who averages 15.6 points per game. Its other three starters all average more than 9.5 points per game. The Badgers’ sixth man, Kamari McGee, averages nearly seven points per game and shoots 47.9% from deep — the second highest of any Big Ten player that shoots at least two 3-pointers a game.
Illinois enters the tournament fresh off one of its best stretches of the year — beating No. 3-seed Michigan and Purdue last week — after dealing with injuries and the fifth-toughest strength of schedule this season, according to KenPom.
The Illini score the most points (83.7) and corral the most rebounds per game (42.4) in the Big Ten. Freshman Kasparas Jakucionis does just about everything for them on offense, averaging 15.2 points and 4.8 assists per game, while 7-foot-1 sophomore center Tomislav Ivišić puts up 12.6 points and 7.6 rebounds per game.
At +650, Illinois will have to beat the Terps in the quarterfinals, but will then likely play Purdue or Michigan.
As the No. 10 seed with +5000 odds, Ohio State is a deep sleeper that could potentially make a run. The Buckeyes already upset Maryland and Purdue and fell to No. 8-seed Oregon, Wisconsin, No. 9-seed Indiana and Michigan by one possession in the regular season.
Potential upsets and early outs
At +1600, Michigan looks like a great bet as the No. 3 seed, but the Wolverines head to Indianapolis as perhaps the coldest team in the tournament. They are on a three-game losing streak that includes a 20-point home loss to Illinois and a 17-point defeat at Michigan State.
Michigan also averages the most turnovers per game (14.4) in the conference and shoot just 33.6% from three and 71.7% from the free-throw line. The Wolverines could lose their first game of the tournament if Purdue makes it to the quarterfinals.
With +4000 odds, Indiana is also in jeopardy of losing its first game of the tournament against Oregon, which beat the Hoosiers by nine points a week ago.