The Terps haven’t made the Final Four in more than two decades.
No. 11 Maryland men’s basketball heads to Seattle this week as the fourth seed in the NCAA Tournament West Region.
In a tumultuous season that started with tough losses to Marquette and Purdue, followed by a disappointing West Coast road trip at Oregon and Washington, the Terps are winners in 14 of their last 18 games, with all four losses coming on game-winning shots with less than eight seconds left. At 24-7 (14-6 Big Ten), Maryland finished second in the conference, but lost to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals.
But little of what happened during the regular season and conference tournament matters now, as each game could be Maryland’s last from this point on.
The Terps’ journey starts Friday against No. 13-seed Grand Canyon. The Antelopes boast a starting lineup of four seniors and rank 93rd in the KenPom.com net rating. They are a defensive team — ranked 10th in the country in raw defensive efficiency, according to KenPom — that likes to play fast. Grand Canyon is led by senior forward JaKobe Coles and graduate guard Tyon Grant-Foster, who each average more than 14 points per game.
Maryland is 10.5-point favorites, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, but the Antelopes have knocked off a top seed before, defeating then-No. 5-seed Saint Mary’s in the first round last year.
If the Terps win Friday, they will take on the winner of No. 5-seed Memphis versus No. 12-seed Colorado State on Sunday. Many bracketologists are picking this as a classic 12-5 upset, as the Rams are 1.5-point favorites, according to FanDuel. Whichever way that matchup unfolds, the Terps would likely be significant favorites, with Memphis ranked 50th in KenPom and Colorado State 44th — Maryland ranks 11th.
After the round of 32, Florida is a heavy favorite at -700, according to FanDuel, to make the Sweet 16 and beat No. 16-seed Norfolk State in the first round and No. 8-seed UConn or No. 9-seed Oklahoma in the second round. The Gators steamrolled through the SEC Tournament, defeating Tennessee, 86-77, in the championship game. Florida ranks second in KenPom with the best offensive and ninth-best defensive rating in the country.
Maryland would likely be underdogs in a Sweet 16 matchup with the Gators, as the Terps hold +470 odds to make the Elite Eight.
No. 2-seed St. John’s and No. 3-seed Texas Tech are the favorites to come out of the bottom half of the region and potentially meet Maryland in the Elite Eight. The Terps rank a spot ahead of the Red Storm and four spots below the Red Raiders in KenPom. The two teams play opposite brands of basketball, as St. John’s leads the country in defensive efficiency and ranks 49th in adjusted tempo, while Texas Tech is sixth in offensive efficiency and 281st in adjusted tempo, per KenPom.
Yet, Maryland has the team to match both styles. It sits sixth in defensive rating, 28th in offensive rating and 57th in adjusted tempo, boasting a lineup with unique skill sets. Freshman phenom Derik Queen and senior forward Julian Reese provide elite size and rounding down low, while Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Selton Miguel and Rodney Rice offer perimeter scoring and 3-point shooting. All five starters — ‘The Crab Five’ — average at least 12 points per game.
The Terps have +1000 odds to win the West Region, according to FanDuel, and have not made the Final Four since 2002, when they won the national championship, but their well-rounded lineup and star power could be enough to compete with anyone.