DVOA creator Aaron Schatz shares his updated outlook on the 2024 Ravens ahead of a massive Divisional Round matchup.
With the 2024 NFL season finally upon us, FTN Fantasy’s Aaron Schatz, the creator of DVOA and many advanced metrics sat down with Baltimore Beatdown to share his thoughts, predictions and overall outlook for the Baltimore Ravens Divisional Round matchup with the Buffalo Bills. He talked about who has the advantage in this game on both sides of the ball and chimed in on some of the controversy surrounding the MVP conversation from a voter’s perspective.
How excited are you for this matchup from a DVOA perspective?
“Very. This is the best game of the weekend and everybody agrees this is the best game of the weekend. We’re all looking forward to it and the problem is that only one of the teams can win. If you kind of are like, oh, I’d love to see Lamar Jackson finally get a championship, and I’d love to see Josh Allen finally get a championship. Well, only one of them can win. So there you go.”
Are you a part of the contingent that is a little disappointed that this wasn’t the AFC title game matchup and feel like it came a week early?
“A little bit, yeah.”
Do you believe that the winner of this game will be more likely to come out of the AFC over the Kansas City Chiefs?
“I’d say it’s probably 50/50, given that the game is in Kansas City. But, I mean, both of these teams were better than Kansas City during the regular season. There’s this general question of, was Kansas City holding back during the regular season? Are they better now? They had Marquise Brown healthy, etc, and so on. So it’s probably 50/50, in the next round.”
Do you feel like the Chiefs have kind of figured some stuff out with Hollywood back and Joe Thuney playing left tackle?
“Yeah, they did. It’s annoying, but they did.”
Which team do you believe has the edge in this game between the Ravens and Bills?
“I give it to the Ravens very slightly, but it’s really close.”
Do you believe the first matchup between these two teams has no bearing on this game?
“I think you learn lessons from the first game. The Bills defense has had a problem all year with explosive giving away explosive runs. And obviously that was the story of the first game. So, it serves as an example of what the Bills have had a problem with all year.”
With Taron Johnson, Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard back, do you still think the Bills are going to try to live and die by their nickel base defense against Ravens heavy personnel?
“Well, that’s the thing. I mean, they can live in the nickel defense, but they’re still probably going to want to stuff the box. But then, if you stuff the box, guess who’s the best pass offense in the league, when the opponent stuffs the box, it’s Baltimore. So there’s no easy way to do this. There’s no easy way to beat the Baltimore offense that has been spectacular this year. The way that Baltimore generally loses is that they beat themselves with penalties and stupid things. Their offense has just been killer all year long. There’s no easy way to beat it.”
How would the lack of Pro Bowl wide receiver Zay Flowers’ presence impact the Ravens offense in this game?
“It would be better if they had him, but, yeah, I think even without him, they’re favored, but the Bills offense is also really good. There’s no easy way to shut down the Bills offense either.”
Which quarterback do you feel like has the edge in this game between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen?
“Neither. Both quarterbacks are fantastic, so it’s really hard to say that either one has an edge. I think the Baltimore defense, given how good it’s been since week 11, looks better than the Buffalo defense right now. For example, Buffalo has had a problem all year stopping passes that are shorter, and even when Milano came back, they still had that problem. And so Jackson can complete in the intermediate area, 5-to-15 yards, and should have success. Buffalo is much better at taking away the deep threat.”
Which running back do you feel like we’ll have the greater impact in this game between Derrick Henry and James Cook?
“Oh, Henry. The Baltimore run defense has been excellent all year and Henry and Henry was spectacular this season. Cook was very, very good this season too, but the Buffalo run defense is not as good as the Baltimore run defense.
When it came to the whole MVP conversation, people were going out of their way to diminish the impact of a James Cook to boost Josh Allen’s case, do you kind of feel that way too as a voter that people were overlooking some of his supporting cast and kind of pumping up Lamar Jackson’s even more outside of Derek Henry?
“Yeah, I think people over I think people overstate the extent to which the rest of the Baltimore offense is better than the rest of the Buffalo offense. Yes, Cook is very good. He’s not Henry, but he’s a different style of runner than Henry.”
What are the glaring weaknesses for these teams, if any?
“Well, first of all, the most glaring weakness, interestingly enough, is special teams for both teams. [Justin] Tucker has been bad this year, and [Tyler] Bass has not been good either. He’s been a little bit below average. So strangely enough, that’s the most glaring weakness, I think. I don’t know what else really stands out, like that. The short passes thing for the Buffalo defense, and especially short middle passes, stands out. I think that they give up a lot of these shorter and intermediate area passes. That stands out as a Buffalo weakness. Baltimore, what stands out as weaknesses as penalties, also, they’re not as good on defense on first down. They’re much better on defense on second and third down.”
Are you a believer that cornerback Brandon Stephens is as huge of a detriment to this Ravens past defense as other people in the media and the fan base believe?
“He was the worst of their corners, and he’s targeted a lot, but, I mean, how badly did they talk about him? They talk about him like he’s the worst quarter in the league, because he’s not. He’s probably not as bad as they talk about it, but it’s clear he’s not as good as the other two.”
Who do you believe will come out on top in this game?
“I favor the ravens, but only by a little bit. It’s easy to imagine it going either way. What would be hard to imagine would be a Bills blow out. I don’t think the Ravens have been blown out in a game this year. It’s really hard to imagine that the Ravens offense would be kept down for the entire game, but we know that it’s possible that it would work the other way, because we’ve seen it. We’ve seen the Ravens blow out the Bills. Most likely it’s a close game that comes down to the end.”
What’s more likely, the Ravens win by a touchdown or more or it comes down to the final possession?
“The final possession.”
Which team has more momentum heading into this game? Ravens are winners of five straight and the Bills five of their last seven.
“I don’t know, psychologically, what it means to take a week off. Did it mean anything psychological momentum? Did it mean anything for the Bills to just take week 18 off? I don’t think so. In which case, both teams have been winning, both teams have momentum psychologically. But it’s pretty equal, I think.”