Some information given to us courtesy of Hogs Haven’s Andrew York
In preparing for Sunday’s highly-anticipated matchup, Hogs Haven’s Andrew York and I sat down for a Q&A for one another’s publications.
1. The Washington Commanders are now 4-1 after rattling off four straight impressive victories. They’re No. 3 in Offensive DVOA and are No. 1 in scoring. Of course, rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is a resounding cause of this so please share what you’re seeing from him, but also, what else is allowing them such success?
Jayden Daniels is the single most important player in the offense, but the offense starts with the run game. Washington has the highest rush rate in the NFL and the 2nd highest rushing yards per game, so the run game has been the foundation of the offense. That’s a credit to the run blocking of the offensive line, the efficiency of our RBs, but also the threat Jayden Daniels poses to break runs to the edge, which forces teams to space out their defense or risk a QB run for a big gain. In addition, [the Commanders have] frequently been playing no huddle, hurry up offense to trap defenses in desirable personnel packages and exploit their weaknesses (for example, using multiple TEs to force the defense to go heavy, then leaning on the pass). Going no huddle also prevents DL rotation, which exhausts the DL over time to open up the run game. OC Kliff Kingsbury also deserves a ton of credit for crafting a well-designed offense and calling good plays based on the looks the defense is giving.
2. The Commanders went out and signed numerous big-name free agents this offseason, including Austin Ekeler, Bobby Wagner, Zach Ertz and quite a few others. How have the additions panned out this season?
It’s funny hearing it described that way, because I think most Washington fans would characterize it as “bargain hunting in FA.” Although fans might recognize names like Ekeler, Wagner, and Ertz, they were all signed to relatively inexpensive deals (Ekeler was coming off an injury-plagued season, Wagner and Ertz are past their prime). This process was successful in re-making the roster, as Washington leads the NFL in roster turnover with 57% new players this season compared to last. It has worked well, as the largest FA contracts (for C Tyler Biadasz, LB Frankie Luvu, DE Dorance Armstrong) have also been for some of the most impactful players and I don’t think [the Commanders] have buyer’s remorse over any of [their] signings. That’s not to say every FA signing has been a success, but the ones who have performed badly had cheap contracts and were easy to cut or bench. Overall, new GM Adam Peters (previously of the 49ers) has done a great job overhauling the terrible roster that Ron Rivera left him.
3. Defensively, an area of weakness for the Commanders appears to be their red zone defense. Over the past three games, they’ve allowed 62.5% of red zone appearances as touchdowns and in the same span the Ravens are No. 1 with 92.3% touchdown rate in offensive red zone appearances. Is this one of the more critical areas of this matchup?
I think this may be a case where stats are misleading without context. [The Commanders] have a new coaching staff, mostly new players, and didn’t play [their] starters much in the preseason. As a result, this team looked completely out of sorts in Week 1 and has been gradually getting better and figuring things out with each game. [The Commanders] defense looked like garbage in weeks 1-3, but finally seemed to figure things out in week 4, allowing only 14 points to a Cardinals offense that had the 4th most points scored in the NFL before that game. The defense seemed to perform well last week against the Browns, only allowing a single TD late in garbage time after [the Commanders] had pulled [their] starters. Yes, I know that was the Browns, but my overall point is that I think [the Commanders] defensive stats are skewed by how terrible [their] defense looked the first 3 weeks, whereas in the last 2 weeks the defense has only allowed three total TDs, two of them in garbage time of a blowout win. That being said, I don’t think [their] defense is some juggernaut and anyone who looks at [their] defensive depth chart would see a humble roster that is being coached up. I fully expect the Ravens to score points on [the Commanders], but I don’t think you can trust [their] overall defensive stats yet given that the defense has been figuring things out and getting better during the season.
4. If you were the Ravens’ defensive coordinator, how would you go about game-planning against Daniels and the offense?
This is a tough question because several professional DCs have tried and none have been successful in stopping this offense following Week 1 (when the offense was still figuring things out). I think the best gameplan so far has been what the Browns tried, which was to bring multiple defenders close to the line of scrimmage to stop the run and take away screen passes, then use creative blitzes to try to get pressure on Daniels. It stopped [the Commanders] at first, but it required Cleveland’s defense to go largely man coverage on the backend, which made them vulnerable to deep throws if [the Commanders] WRs could beat their man 1-on-1. Daniels showed tremendous ability to stay calm and either make big runs of his own in this situation or break the pocket and buy time with his legs while his receivers got open, allowing [the Commanders] to make some big plays. I don’t really know what would work, but it probably would require having flexible defensive players who are good against the run and the pass so they can’t get trapped in a specific personnel package and exploited by [the Commanders] hurry-up offense.
5. Who are two players (one offense, one defense) Ravens fans should know about heading into this game?
I’ll assume this is asking for lesser-known players, so I’ll skip WR Terry McLaurin and RB Brian Robinson Jr (who have been great fantasy football pickups this year). Washington drafted LT Brandon Coleman in the 3rd round of this year’s draft. Brandon Coleman has been splitting time at LT with veteran swing tackle Cornelius Lucas, as Coleman was recovering from an injury in training camp and still getting up to speed with NFL play. Lucas had the majority of snaps at LT the first 2 weeks, but Coleman’s share of the snaps gradually increased since then. Both are splitting snaps about evenly and both have performed reasonably well. Lucas has been a competent backup, but Coleman has flashed lots of raw talent. He has an athletic profile almost identical to Trent Williams (a bit short, but with long arms and tremendous athleticism to compensate). However, he was raw and had fewer reps at LT in college than most draft picks at OT and missing much of training camp didn’t help. He held Myles Garrett blank on the stat sheet last week and did a great job against Trey Hendrickson in week 3, so his star is ascending.
On defense, one of [the Commanders’] biggest FA signings was LB Frankie Luvu, formerly of the Panthers. Luvu is a high-energy LB who flies around the field making tackles and is especially good at blitzing the QB. Luvu finished [their] game against Cleveland with seven tackles, 2.5 sacks, and a fumble recovery in the third quarter and was given the game ball by Head Coach Dan Quinn after the game.