Big discounts and the continued growth of mobile shopping are expected to fuel $240.8 billion in online sales this holiday season, according to Adobe.
Adobe’s online holiday shopping forecast calls for 8.4% growth year-over-year.
Shopping on mobile devices is expected to hit a new milestone, jumping 12.8% from last year for an estimated $128.1 billion this holiday season.
Adobe expects Cyber Monday will remain the biggest online shopping day of the year. The deepest discounts, up to 30% off, are expected to hit during Cyber Week.
Adobe’s holiday shopping forecast, based on an analysis of a trillion visits to online retail sites, includes 18 product categories such as electronics and toys.
Discounts for electronics are expected to peak at 30% off the listed price (compared with 31% in 2023), while discounts for toys are set to hit 27% (compared with 28%), according to Adobe.
Record-high discounts are expected for TVs at 24% and sporting goods at 20%.
Other categories with notable discounts include apparel at 23%, computers at 23%, furniture at 19% and appliances at 18%.
“The holiday shopping season has been reshaped in recent years, where consumers are making purchases earlier, driven by a stream of discounts that has allowed shoppers to manage their budgets in different ways,” Vivek Pandya, lead analyst for Adobe Digital Insights, said in a news release. “These discounting patterns are driving material changes in shopping behavior, with certain consumers now trading up to goods that were previously higher-priced and propelling growth for U.S. retailers.”
More shoppers are expected to use a buy-now, pay-later method, with Adobe forecasting an 11.4% annual increase.
Social media influencers are also driving people to shop 10 times more.
Artificial intelligence will continue to play a larger role in holiday shopping. Traffic to retail sites from generative AI-powered chatbots has doubled so far this year, Adobe said.
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