The Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills will face off Sunday in one of the most highly anticipated NFL playoff games in recent memory. The most important player on the field at Highmark Stadium won’t be either of the league’s Most Valuable Player front-runners, though.
Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and Buffalo’s Josh Allen are the leading MVP candidates after the quarterbacks put together outstanding seasons leading their respective offenses. It’s led the two fanbases to go hard at each other on social media in recent weeks, adding to the already high drama of a win-or-go-home matchup.
The Ravens and Bills are scheduled for a 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday evening on CBS and Paramount Plus. Let’s break down the most important players who will help decide which team earns an AFC Championship Game berth and moves within two wins of a Super Bowl title.
Analyzing Most Significant Players in Ravens vs. Bills
1. Ravens RB Derrick Henry
Nothing else matters if Henry rumbles through the Buffalo defense as he did in the team’s Week 4 meeting. The five-time Pro Bowler ran for 199 yards on 24 carries (8.3 YPC) and scored two touchdowns, one on the ground and another through the air, in his team’s 35-10 blowout win.
Henry represents the worst-case scenario for an undersized Bills defensive group. At 6’3”, 247 pounds, he’s almost impossible to bring down with a single tackler, but he’s also got enough top-end pace to outrun Buffalo’s modest speed in the secondary. It’s a matchup nightmare in every regard.
SEE YA!!
Derrick Henry with a 87-yard TD to kick things off! #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/eIHSS44rRr
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) September 30, 2024
As a result, the Ravens have a plethora of options heading into Sunday’s game. They can utilize a run-heavy attack like the first meeting until the Bills prove they can stop it. Alternatively, they could opt for a lot of play-action calls early trying to catch Buffalo off guard.
Henry is likely to see 20-plus touches regardless. It wouldn’t even be a surprise to see him hit 30 touches if the game is trending well for Baltimore. The pressure is on Bills head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich to find a solution, if one even exists.
2. Bills QB Josh Allen
Although the MVP expectation has shifted toward Jackson after the All-Pro votes were announced, nobody was more valuable to their team in 2024 than Allen. He carried the offense on his back after large-scale roster changes, highlighted by wins over the No. 1 seeds in both conferences (Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions).
The Ravens’ attack would have still found success with a Henry-centric approach featuring Zay Flowers (who’s questionable this week), Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely. The Bills probably would have been in the No. 1 pick conversation without Allen. That’s true value.
The complete list of QBs named 1st or 2nd team All-Pro over the last 15 years, who didn’t have another All-Pro teammate
2024 Josh Allen
That’s it pic.twitter.com/jPFaaFECOk
— NFL on CBS (@NFLonCBS) January 15, 2025
Nevertheless, Buffalo’s quarterback will likely need to play a near-flawless game for his team to have a chance Sunday. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Bills stifle the Ravens’ offense. A score in the upper-20s, if not the 30s, will be needed to win with cold but manageable weather expected.
The biggest key for Allen will be seeing through Baltimore’s defensive disguises. The Ravens were able to confuse him with some well-designed looks in the first meeting. It led to three sacks—no other team sacked him more than twice all year—and his only touchdown-less game of the campaign.
3. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson
Henry’s arrival unlocked a new level of productivity for Jackson. It was on full display against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. The league’s most dynamic weapon saw their AFC North rivals selling out to stop the powerful rusher, so he kept the ball on a lot of zone reads. He ran for 81 yards and a score.
That element—opponents’ fear of Henry’s punishing runs—combined with Jackson’s high football IQ created a match made in heaven for Baltimore’s offense. The unit led the league in yards per game (424.9) and is virtually impossible to stop when clicking on all cylinders.
Records on records for Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry pic.twitter.com/jz7wlkTUtH
— ESPN (@espn) January 5, 2025
Jackson is also out to prove his playoff failures are a thing of the past. He entered this year’s postseason with a 2-4 career playoff record, including a loss to the Bills that ended the Ravens’ 2020 season. It was the only blemish on a résumé otherwise trending toward Hall of Fame worthy.
His performance last week against the Steelers suggests those struggles may be firmly in the rearview mirror. It was the prototypical Lamar game: extraordinarily efficient with a touch of magnificent. A similar outing is possible against a modest Buffalo defense.
4. Ravens LB Kyle Van Noy
Keeping Allen trapped in the pocket is the No. 1 factor in slowing down the Bills. No one in the NFL is more schooled in that delicate art than Van Noy. He was a member of the New England Patriots when the Bills quarterback was drafted and also spent time with the fellow AFC East rival Miami Dolphins.
Van Noy finished fourth in the league with 12.5 sacks during the regular season. Two of those came against Allen in Week 4. The Ravens’ chances of a road win increase exponentially if the linebacker spends that much time in Allen’s face again.
In the @Ravens‘ 35-10 Week 4 win over the @BuffaloBills, Kyle Van Noy had Buffalo’s offensive tackles shaking their heads. Two sacks and five total pressures for the man who does not seem to age. pic.twitter.com/wpWVvpBQgd
— Doug Farrar (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 14, 2025
This is also where Baltimore’s defensive trickery comes into play, though. The Bills frequently use an extra offensive lineman. It’s often in run situations, but they’ll probably do it on some pass plays Sunday to help neutralize Van Noy. In turn, expect some exotic blitzes from the opposite side of the defense.
Van Noy is the biggest defensive game-wrecker on either side heading into the marquee matchup. His mere presence creates concerns for the Buffalo blockers that the Ravens’ front five doesn’t have to deal with from any Bills edge-rusher. That’s a massive advantage in a game with razor-close margins.
5. Bills DT Ed Oliver
If Buffalo wins the Super Bowl, you can bet a three-game heater from Oliver was part of the equation. Few players in the NFL are more frustrating than the 2019 first-round pick. Sometimes he looks like one of the league’s most dominant interior forces. He goes invisible far too often, however.
The team’s Week 4 game was a perfect example of the latter point. The 27-year-old University of Houston product played 72 percent of the defensive snaps against a Ravens offense that ran the ball 34 times. His stats? Zero tackles, zero sacks, zero quarterback hits, and zero forced fumbles. He did nothing.
That obviously can’t happen on Sunday. The Bills likely lose in another landslide if Oliver zeroes out again. They simply don’t have enough other game-changers defensively to make up the difference. He must be the X-factor in the middle of the line. His underlying numbers suggest he’s still capable of making a substantial impact.
How quick and often DT get pressure. Quick dropbacks excluded (<2.5 sec)
x = Pressure %
y = Average Time to Pressure
Upper right = good | Bottom left = Bad pic.twitter.com/P439xgGB1C— Stat Acccount (@AcccountStat) January 15, 2025
Ultimately, the Buffalo defense will be front and center in the rematch. It gave up touchdowns on Baltimore’s first three drives in Week 4. That created a 21-3 hole and allowed the Ravens to dictate the game. Oliver must step up to prevent a repeat in the Divisional Round.
Main Photo: Tommy Gilligan – USA Today Sports
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