Mapping a out a blueprint to success in this AFC playoff showdown.
The Baltimore Ravens will hit the road for the first time this postseason when they travel to upstate New York and take on the Buffalo Bills. They are narrowly favored against an opponent who is just as hot as they are.
A win would not only punch the Ravens’ ticket to the next round of the playoffs but mark their first time advancing to the AFC championship game in back-to-back seasons since 2012.
Here are five keys integral to the Ravens’ coming out on top in the second round of the playoffs.
Rinse and repeat formula for offensive success
In the regular season matchup between these two teams, the Bills were without three of their best defenders in All Pro linebacker Matt Milano, stud nickel cornerback Taron Johnson and athletic third-year linebacker Terrel Bernard. However, against the particular brand of football the Ravens like to play on offense, if they opt to heavily deploy their nickel package — which is essentially their base defense — it would set up Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry for similar levels of success the second time around.
Johnson has played 89% or more of the Bills’ total defensive snaps in 10 of the 13 games he has played, including the Wild Card round of the playoffs. While he’s one of the best and most tenacious run defenders from the slot, against the Ravens’ heavy personnel packages, he may be no match for any of the big blockers he’d meet in the trenches.
On Friday, Head Coach John Harbaugh said Pro Bowl wide receiver Zay Flowers “has a chance” to play on Sunday despite not practicing all week with a knee injury. Whether he plays or not, the Ravens are poised to have a big day on offense because of how punishing their top-ranked rushing attack is for opposing defenses. Last week, the Ravens passing attack flowed through their dynamic tight-end duo and in their first matchup with the Bills, it was their running backs. A heavy mixture of both could be in store for Sunday’s matchup.
Make Bills’ offense one-dimensional
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens are set up for success given their strengths match up with how Buffalo tries to attack opposing defenses. After racking up their second-most rushing yards of the season (210) in their Wild Card round win over the Denver Broncos, the Bills will undoubtedly try to establish the run and stay as balanced as possible after the game script from the first matchup forced them to abandon the run after falling behind 21-3 before halftime.
Unfortunately for them, the Ravens’ defense has been the best at stopping the run all year, finishing the regular season with the fewest allowed in total rushing yards (1,361), yards per carry (3.6) and yards per game (80.1). They’re coming off a Wild Card round victory where they outrushed their archrivals by 270 yards, because their defense yielded 29 yards on the ground. By taking away or severely limiting the Bills’ rushing attack, it’ll allow the pass rush to heat up and the second and third-level defenders to play downhill in the short to intermediate passing game where their excellent open-field tackling will limit big plays and first down conversions.
Start fast on offense and silence home crowd
No matter how cold it is on Sunday, the Bills Mafia will be loud, proud and fired up to cheer on the home team, so the Ravens can expect plenty of noise when they’re on offense. The best way to get a rowdy home fan base quieted in their stadium is to jump out to an early lead. Whether the Ravens get the ball first or second in this game, getting into an early rhythm and finishing drives in the end zone instead of settling for field goals will go a long way toward neutralizing some of the Bills’ homefield advantage.
There is nothing more demoralizing for an opposing defense or their home crowd than having Henry plow through them in the ground game play after play for the second time this year. The more efficiently the Ravens can run the ball out of the gate, the better it’ll be because the Bills’ front seven will begin to wilt sooner and their third-level defenders will have to contemplate making some business decisions or risk getting posterized by the future Hall of Famer’s legendary stiff arm.
Maintain rush-lane integrity and plaster in coverage
Bills star quarterback Josh Allen has been the hardest quarterback to sack this season with a league-low 14 such occurrences but the only pass rush unit that managed to bring him down more than twice in a game was none other than the Ravens with three in Week 4. They did so by being disciplined in their rush lanes and not letting him escape the pocket, limiting the Second Team All Pro to just 21 yards on five attempts in the previous matchup and have been the best in the league against quarterback scrambles. The Ravens are coming off a four-sack performance in the Wildcard Round and have recorded multiple sacks in every game this season. Even if they can’t bring Allen down behind the scrimmage for a loss, keeping him from gashing them with his legs will be just as vital to their success.
Another dangerous aspect of Allen’s game they will be aware of and trying to limit is extended playmaking ability as a passer. Much like their own star dual-threat quarterback, the Bills’ star signal caller can keep a passing play alive longer than most. He has a knack for making spectacular throws into tight windows and buying his targets time to uncover late during scramble drills. Plastering in coverage is something that has been preached in Baltimore since Ben Roethlisberger was shrugging off would-be sacks for nearly two decades for the Steelers. The Ravens’ defense allowed just one extended passing play of over 30 yards in the first matchup and to avoid getting into a potential shootout, they’ll need to make sure it doesn’t happen on multiple occasions.
“The play is never over… Everybody’s live until the whistle’s dead.”
DC Zach Orr on prepping for the Bills: pic.twitter.com/3E2QtZU0s9
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) January 16, 2025
“We have to make sure that we try to keep him in the pocket as much as possible, and then we have to plaster on the back end until the whistle blows,” defensive coordinator Zach Orr said Thursday.
Continue to avoid self-inflicted wounds and unforced errors
After being the most penalized team in the league for most of the regular season, the Ravens have been far more disciplined against playoff teams since their post-bye winning streak started. They were flagged just twice for 10 yards in their second matchup of the season against the Steelers, three times for just 14 yards against them in the Wildcard Round and three times for 30 yards against the Houston Texans on Christmas wedged in between. Being disciplined in all three phases of the game is paramount in the postseason where the margins for error are at their slimmest. A negated chunk gain on offense, unearned first down given up on defense or favorable field position either given or taken away could loom large if a game were to go down to the wire and decided by a score of less.
In addition to focusing on being more disciplined before and during plays, the Ravens have overemphasized the importance of taking care of the ball and not giving their opponents momentum and a short field which they can use to potentially beat them. They’ve gone nearly two months without committing a turnover and their 11 total in the regular season were the third-fewest in the league. On Sunday, they’ll be going up against a Bills defense that finished with the second-most takeaways in the NFL with 32, a fact they’re keenly aware of and prepared to combat heightened ball security and good decision-making.
“It’s a point of emphasis always, and it’s a point of emphasis right now big time, because for our offense, [the Bills’] defense takes the ball away a lot,” Harbaugh said Wednesday. “We’re going to try to take the ball away from them as much as we can and try to get them as uncomfortable as we can, of course. But also on offense, understanding that’s how they play. They try to put you in a position where they create turnovers. Yes, protecting the football is job [No.] 1. That was in our meeting today. It’s pretty much in our meeting every week, but it was definitely in our meeting today. It might’ve been the No. 1 point – job [No.] 1 [and] No. 1 [is to] protect the football.”