Mapping a out a blueprint to success in this AFC North playoff showdown.
The Baltimore Ravens will open the postseason at home with a Wild Card round matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the second double-header game on Saturday in primetime. They are favored to prevail by nearly double-digit points as they are going up against a team they just blew out a few weeks ago.
A win would not only punch the Ravens’ ticket to the next round of the playoffs but get them within a game of returning to the AFC championship game and two victories away from reaching the Super Bowl.
Here are five keys integral to the Ravens’ coming out on top in the first round of the playoffs.
Avoiding turnovers is of the utmost importance
The only way an inferior opponent with an offense that has been as anemic and inept as the Steelers could keep pace in this game would be if they were given more bites at the apple and shorter fields to work with. Their opportunistic defense tied the Minnesota Vikings for the league lead in turnovers during the regular season with 33. In the most recent meeting between these two rivals, the Ravens were fortunate that none of the three balls they put on the ground between offense and special teams, two of which occurred in the first half before the game got out of hand.
Quarterback Lamar Jackson got strip-sacked but left tackle Ronnie Stanley fell on the loose ball. Defensive back Desmond King fumbled on a long punt return and muffed another in the fourth quarter. Still, thankfully in both instances, a linebacker was there to ensure they maintained possession of the ball. This time around, they can’t risk being callous with the ball because they might not get the lucky bounces in their favor.
As a team, the Ravens only turned the ball over 11 times in the regular season—third-fewest in the league—and will need to be extra precautious when carrying the ball in the open field, fighting for extra yards after contact or maneuvering in the pocket in Jackson’s case. Defenders at all three levels of Pittsburgh’s defense are coached and trained to attack the ball whether it’s a punch, rip, swipe or swat which played a huge factor in Baltimore’s demise in the first matchup during the regular season.
Start fast, establish an early lead
The Steelers’ offense has been the main catalyst of the team’s losing skid due in large part to their inability to sustain drives, score touchdowns instead of settling for field goals and taking care of the ball. They’ve failed to score more than 17 points in each of their last four games and have been outscored a staggering 109-57 over that span. As currently constructed and given the product they’ve put on tape over the last month, the Steelers aren’t capable of going blow for blow with a Ravens team that has scored 30-plus points during their four-game winning streak. If Jackson and company start fast and jump out to an early lead, the chances of their archrivals being able to dig themselves out of a double-digit is highly unlikely.
Letting a team like the Steelers, who try to keep games as close as possible by dragging their opponents into the mud with them for a slugfest, would give them hope of possibly pulling off an upset as heavy underdogs. Taking care of business early, swiftly and cleanly would snuff out that sliver of hope and set them up to grind the clock out in the fourth quarter or sooner if they build a big enough lead but given how locked in this Ravens team is, they might let up until all the time has run off the clock.
Capitalizing on takeaway opportunities
While the Ravens defense first started its incredible turnaround in Week 11 in the team’s first matchup with the Steelers, since returning from a Week 14 bye, first-year defensive coordinator Zach Orr’s unit answered his call to force more turnovers. They’ve gone from a steady dependable unit to a playmaking one with six turnovers forced for a differential of plus-4. They’ve recorded at least one takeaway each of their last four including two games with a pair—one of which being the Steelers and the other being the regular season finale win over the Cleveland Browns to clinch the division crown.
Pittsburgh quarterback Russell Wilson has accounted for two-thirds of the offense’s six turnovers committed during their four-game skid. He had a pair of interceptions that took away points for his team on one and gave a touchdown to their opponent on the other and lost two of his three fumbles. If the the Ravens can steal their offense an extra possession or two and maybe even record their third defensive score in their last four games, it could help put the game out of reach early or close it out late as was the case the last game they played.
Pound the rock with Derrick Henry, feed tight ends in passing attack
The Ravens have racked up 220 or more yards on the ground in each of their last three games dating back to their last matchup with the Steelers and the bulk of that production has come from their five-time Pro Bowl running back who has averaged 149 rushing yards. Henry was brought in to help the offense reach another level and has done that and then some and is built to terrorize opposing defenses this time of year and propel them into a deep playoff run. The Steelers made a concerted effort to not let Jackson kill them with his legs and got bludgeoned by Henry to the tune of 162 yards on 24 carries after being held to 65 yards on 13 attempts in Week 11. Even if they switch up the strategy to try to limit his impact, it’ll still be easier said than done with all the different ways the Ravens can put their defenders in conflict on zone reads and a multitude of run concepts.
With Pro Bowl wide receiver Zay Flowers unlikely to play or be 100% even if he does, the Ravens should funnel their passing game through the tight end position instead of leaning on one of their reserve receivers behind Rashod Bateman to step up in a more prominent role. Three-time Pro bowler Mark Andrews closed out the regular season on a heater with a receiving touchdown in each of his last six games to lead all players at the position in the league with 11—one of which came against the Steelers for the first time in his career. Third-year pro Isaiah Likely also caught a touchdown in the last meeting between these two teams and has scored at least once against Pittsburgh each year he has been in the league. Living in 12 and 13 personnel should be their recipe for success in the passing and running game in this rubber match.
Don’t let Steelers’ stars get their groove
In the playoffs every team’s regular season record no longer matters because it’s win or go home but having momentum heading into the tournament is key and the Ravens have plenty of it while their rivals to do not. Nevertheless, as dangerous as hot team peaking at the right time is, a desperate team can be equally so if not more because they haven’t experienced success in an extended period of time.
Pittsburgh struggles on both sides of the ball have stemmed from their star players not having the types of impacts they were having when they were rolling and leading the division. In addition to Wilson, seven-time Pro Bowl outside linebacker T.J. Watt didn’t record a sack in his last three games and leading wide receiver George Pickens is coming off a regular season finale in which he only caught one of his six targets for no yards and dropped three key passes.
While Watt has been dealing with an ankle sprain Pickens missed three games with a hamstring injury, the fact remains that they their team needed them to make plays and they both failed to do so on top of the starting quarterback’s consistent and untimely struggles in the passing game and ball security. The Ravens can’t let the Steelers biggest stars have resurgent performances because it will make for a much closer game than it has any business being.