Ravens vs. Bills Critical Matchups: Run it back in the ground game against subpackage heavy defense

This AFC clash of titans features key battles between specific players, units, and coaches.

The Baltimore Ravens will be back at home in Week 4 where they will host the undefeated Buffalo Bills in primetime on Sunday Night Football in a showdown between two of the top contenders in the AFC looking to build off notching their first win this past week. For the third straight week, the Ravens are favored to come out on top in the first nationally televised game at M&T Bank Stadium this season.

However, games aren’t won on paper or decided by betting odds. There are some pivotal matchups between individual players, units, and coaches that will go a long way in determining the outcome of this contest.

Below are a handful of those key battles that could be deciding factors in Week 4.

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Ravens rushing attack v. Bills sub-package defense

Coming off a season-best performance of racking up 274 yards on the ground, Baltimore could be poised to have another big day running the ball against a Buffalo defense that is giving up the sixth-most yards per carry (4.7) in the league and has yet to play a snap of base defense through three games. If they elect to run anything but their nickel and dime packages and the Ravens roll out and stay in their heavy personnel with a heavy dose of Pro Bowl fullback Patrick Ricard and excellent perimeter blocking paving the way for Derrick Henry. In that event, they would likely have tremendous success and keep Josh Allen on the sideline for most of the night. The Bills are already without All Pro linebacker Matt Milano and have ruled out their next best in Terrel Bernard and star nickel Taron Johnson as well so even if they do check into base, they won’t have their top players who spend most of their time near the line of scrimmage.

Ravens tight ends v. Bills linebackers/safeties

Buffalo’s defense has been extremely stout to open the season outside of their first two quarters in Week 1 but an area where they are susceptible is down the spine where they are not only without their top linebackers and nickel but also have a pair of new starting safeties this year after parting ways with both Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde in the offseason. While none of their previous opponents have attempted to take advantage of this potential weakness, Lamar Jackson and Todd Monken will certainly test them early and often with the dynamic tight-end duo of three-time Pro Bowler Mark Andrews and budding third-year star Isaiah Likely. Neither had big games from a receiving standpoint last week due in large part to game script and flow but that could change in a hurry and early on Sunday night when the Ravens offense decides to take to the air down the seams of the Bills defense.

Ravens linebackers/safeties v. Bills tight ends

As susceptible as Buffalo might be over the middle in this game, Baltimore has surprisingly struggled to stop opposing quarterbacks from throwing the ball at the intermediate and deep levels through the first three games despite having elite coverage players at the second and third levels of their defense. The Ravens have given up six-plus catches and 90-plus receiving yards to the opposing team’s top tight end. They’ll be facing another talented player at the position this week in second-year pro Dalton Kincaid who has just eight catches for 85 receiving yards and a touchdown through three games but is capable of having a big game on any given Sunday if not held in check.

Two-time First Team All Pro linebacker Roquan Smith and veteran safety Marcus Williams have each been guilty of giving up long completions to the tight ends that moved the chains or got the opposing offense into the red zone. While they’ve been in a position to make plays on the ball they both are combined to give up over 300 receiving yards and an opposing passer rating of over 98 each. Second-year linebacker Trenton Simpson has made some nice plays in tight coverage of tight ends through the first three games and if allowed to play more on obvious passing downs, could prove he is ready to be an every-down player no matter the down and distance.

Ravens offensive line v. Bills pass rush

After not giving up a single sack and hardly any pressure for the first time this season last week despite going up against a Pro Bowl tandem of edge rushers, Baltimore’s starting blocking unit will be going up against another formidable front and highly productive pass rush. Buffalo is tied for the fourth-most sacks in the league through three games this season with 11 and is led by a rising star in fourth-year pro Gregory Rousseau and future Hall of Famer Von Miller who each have three sacks coming off the edge.

The interior of the offensive line might have to take on the challenge of limiting the impact of stud defensive tackle Ed Oliver without starting left guard Andrew Vorhees who missed practice all week with an ankle injury and is considered a game-time decision. All eyes will still likely be back on the right side to see if third-year pro Daniel Faalele and veteran Patrick Mekari can repeat their stout performances at guard and tackle respectively after being glaring liabilities at times in pass protection and run blocking in the first two games.

QB Josh Allen v. DB Kyle Hamilton

The second-most dynamic dual-threat quarterback and the ‘ultimate defensive chess piece’ according to many coaches will likely be seeing and colliding with each other early and often in this game. Ravens defensive coordinator Zach Orr has had Hamilton spending a lot of time in the box playing safety, dime linebacker and even defensive end through the first three games and the 6-foot-4 and 220-pound First Team All Pro will likely be playing all the above again in this matchup as he might be one of the only players capable of keeping up with and bringing down the 6-foot-5 and 237-pound Allen if and when he tries to scramble.

Hamilton could also be used deceptively in coverage where he could be crept up in the A, B or C gaps or off the edge like a blitzer pre-snap only to bail into what Allen believed would be a vacated zone to make a play on the ball or take away an option he thought he had, buying the pass rush another second or two to get home. There have also been instances when Hamilton starts a play in the box or on the line of scrimmage only to sprint into deep coverage to help out on a double team take away the seam which could happen a time or two on Sunday night.

Ravens cornerbacks v. Bills wide receivers

Baltimore doesn’t have a multi-time Pro Bowl wideout to key on in this game. Still, Buffalo’s collection of talent at the position has done a great job of not only making up for the loss of Stefon Diggs but also elevating and diversifying their aerial attack. That being said, the Ravens should have the advantage in this matchup with the depth and proven talent they have at corner led by three-time Pro Bowler Marlon Humphrey, fourth-year pro Brandon Stephens and first-round rookie Nate Wiggins.

The only skill possession player on the Bills roster with more than 100 receiving yards through three games is third-year pro Khalil Shakir who has 168 yards and a pair of scores on 14 receptions and is emerging as one of the best slot receivers in the league. With veteran nickel Arthur Maulet out for at least another week, when the opposing offenses have trotted out three-receiver sets, Humphrey has been the first man up in the slot and that could very well end up being the case again this week with fourth-year pro Ar’Darius Washington rotating in as well.

Another intriguing matchup to watch will be when each team’s top rookies line up against each other. Wiggins and Bills second-round wide receiver Keon Coleman squared off in college in the ACC last fall and while he and the Florida State Seminoles bested Wiggins and the Tigers 31-24 with a big day from the big-bodied wideout, none of his production came in their one-on-one matchups or with him as the nearest defender in zone coverage. Their rematch at the professional level could make for some exciting reps, especially at the catch point where both players are very physical and aggressive.

Ravens pass rush v. Bills offensive line

As potent as Buffalo’s ability to consistently generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks, Baltimore’s has been just as productive and disruptive as they are tied with them for the fourth-most sacks in the league and are fourth in quarterback hits through three weeks with 24. However, the only quarterback who has been sacked less than Jackson thus far this season is Allen who has only been taken down behind the line of scrimmage twice on a drop back.

Like Jackson, his dual-threat ability has helped make up for some of the lapses in pass protection but overall, his blocking unit has been stout, especially at tackle with three-time Pro Bowler Dion Dawkins on the blindside and Spencer Brown on the right who has taken his game to another level this year after getting paid in the offseason.

Ravens veteran outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy has recorded two sacks in each of the past two weeks and that streak might be hard to extend on Sunday night given the level of competition he’ll be going against in the trenches and how hard Allen is to bring down. While he and the rest of the edge rushers will have their hands full, it could wind up being a prime opportunity for the interior pass rush to lead the charge. Pro Bowler Nnamdi Madubuike and Travis Jones have been dominant up the middle as both run stuffers and pocket pushers to start the season even if they only have half a sack between them in the first three games although Madubuike was cheated out of a full sack and a safety in back-to-back weeks.