Allen’s MVP odds skyrocket despite historic season from Lamar Jackson
As the NFL season progresses into the latter stages of the year, the discourse around who will end up being the league’s most valuable player tends to heat up.
It dominates the media cycle, often surpassing the talk around team success, big late season games and the playoff picture.
This year, the MVP race has narrowed to three candidates: Bills quarterback Josh Allen, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson and Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. After Buffalo’s 48-42 win against the now 12-2 Detroit Lions, Allen’s MVP odds have skyrocketed to (-900) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Just before the commencement of that game, Jackson completed a marvelous performance featuring five touchdowns and zero interceptions for the second time this season. Similarly, Allen has put together incredible performances over his past two games. In a loss to the Rams last week, Allen accounted for over 400 yards and six touchdowns (three on QB sneaks). Against Detroit, Allen followed it up with another brilliant display, gaining over 400 all-purpose yards and four touchdowns.
Allen’s play over the past few weeks has vaulted him to the top of the MVP rankings and has many media members declaring the race over. On Monday, ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky bluntly said as much. Similarly, former Ravens Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan said, “MVP voters who don’t pick Josh Allen should lose their vote.”
Allen is having a terrific season. The Bills’ roster has undergone much turnover since last year and it wasn’t necessarily expected for them to be in the position they are in. Their success is largely due to Allen’s heroics — nobody would disagree with that.
However, the way the media is deliberately pushing one of the greatest seasons we have ever seen from an NFL QB under the rug is staggering. Jackson is in the midst of a special season. So special, that he is threatening Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning’s single season records for passer rating. Jackson currently ranks fourth behind Manning (2004) and Aaron Rodgers (2011, 2020). From a high-level view, he is in contention for the greatest quarterback season of all time from a passing perspective. Oh, and he also leads all quarterbacks in rushing as well.
Statistically speaking, Jackson has Allen’s number in every category. He has a higher completion percentage, more pass yards, yards per attempt, rush yards, touchdowns, fewer interceptions, a higher QBR, a higher PFF grade and a higher pass rating.
The only category Allen’s MVP case is stronger from a statistical standpoint is rushing touchdowns, 11 to three; albeit a majority of them have come on QB sneaks. If the current numbers hold, it would be an unprecedented scenario that would cause Jackson not to win the award.
Sure, the Bills have two more wins on the season, but that discrepancy in team success isn’t typically enough to outweigh the clear statistical edge Jackson has. If team record was all that mattered, then the award should go to Patrick Mahomes or Jared Goff.
However, neither of the two are playing at the same level as Jackson or Allen – although Goff has had a great year. But the difference in team record is marginal. Such a discrepancy in team success compared to statistics would be more fitting for a Joe Burrow vs. Lamar Jackson debate where both are either first or second in the league in almost every prominent QB statistic. However, the Bengals have a losing record whereas Baltimore is in contention to win their second straight AFC North title.
Much of the argument comes from the media recency bias that surrounds the award. Did Lamar Jackson have far and away the best season in 2023? That’s debatable. However, his argument gained most of its momentum towards the end of the season when Jackson was consistently putting up highlight reel games against playoff or Super Bowl contending teams.
Much of the same sentiment is being applied to Allen now. The only difference is Buffalo hasn’t necessarily been dominating great teams every week like Baltimore did last year. They beat a decimated 49ers (6-8) unit in a blizzard, lost to the Rams (8-6) in a shootout, and then beat the Lions (12-2) and their replacement level defense this past Sunday.
That’s not to say the Ravens or Jackson have been dominating great teams recently; Jackson’s five touchdown game came against the lowly New York Giants, but in order for Allen’s MVP argument to hold water, or at least using Jackson’s logic from last year, you’d think the Bills were blowing playoff teams out each week.
Simply put, despite the incredible season Allen is having, Jackson is still comfortably ahead in almost every statistical category. To overcome this, Buffalo would need to have an inordinate level of team success compared Baltimore, which isn’t the case.
Another data point media personalities are pushing under the rug is Baltimore dominated the Bills, 35-10 in Week 3.
Again, recency bias is a real thing, but it would be difficult to imagine the media not making a big deal of that game right now if the score was reversed and it was Allen who dominated Baltimore. Voters and media put a lot of stock into the head-to-head component of the award last year, especially when Jackson faced off against Brock Purdy, Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffery. This year, that component has seemingly vanished.
Many members of the “Bills Mafia” want to present the idea that this year’s MVP race between Jackson and Allen is just like last year, but the roles are reversed. This couldn’t be further from the case.
Allen had more passing yards and touchdowns than Jackson last year. However, he also threw nearly 3 times (!) as many interceptions and ended second in the league with 18. He was near the top of the league in passing yards and touchdowns, but also led the league in interceptions. Jackson was the far more efficient and effective player last season, and it statistically isn’t much of a debate.
The last component of this equation is true value to your team. How this actually measured? It’s tough to say. Allen and Jackson are clearly indispensable to their teams. If either sustained an injury, their team’s season would end. So, who is “more valuable” to their team? That’s the subjective part.
An argument could be made for either. Jackson, on paper, has a worse defense, offensive line, special teams unit and is captaining the most penalized team in the league. Allen is functioning with a worse supporting cast from a skill position perspective. However, the difference there is marginal.
Both teams have bottom to average level wide receivers, very good tight ends and star running backs. The Ravens obviously brought in Derrick Henry, who has made a world of difference and is one of the best players in the NFL, but Bills running back James Cook is also one of the best all-around running backs in the league. But, once again, recency bias matters.
The Bills defense has allowed over 40 points in consecutive weeks, making it seem as if Allen has had to carry the team. This was somewhat true in the Rams game where Buffalo fell behind early and had to keep up. But against Detroit, the Bills were pretty comfortably ahead for most of the game, making the final score and statical margin slightly inflated.
What we are currently experiencing in what is called “voter fatigue”. Much like in the NBA with Michael Jordan or LeBron James in their prime, both needed to put together historic seasons consistently to win the award because voters simply couldn’t give it to them every year, even if they were the most deserving. Has Jackson reached that level of greatness in the NFL? Probably not, but the sentiment holds true. Raven’s fans knew that it would take a historic season from Jackson to repeat the award, simply because voters and fans want to diversify it. The only issue is that Jackson is delivering. He is on pace to post prime Aaron Rodgers passing numbers while also flirting with a 1,000-yard rushing season. It’s a nonsensical stat line, that, if holds, will go down in history as one of the greatest seasons from a quarterback ever.
Both quarterbacks have somehow upped their game and are playing at unprecedented levels, and while Allen is having a terrific season of his own that would’ve won the award last year, it still doesn’t compare. For Jackson to gain serious momentum, Baltimore would have to win out, probably win the division and Jackson would have to continue playing at his record level. It would be interesting to see what would happen in such a scenario, but for my money, the Bills will finish with a better record and therefore justify voters giving the award to Allen.
At this point in his career, Jackson has nothing more to prove in the regular season. He’s already a two-time MVP. While I’m sure Jackson would love to win it again, his eyes are focused on the challenges that lie ahead of January.