Washington wants to get on top of the Cowboys early and get a convincing win to secure the #6 seed in the NFC playoffs
I want to continue the series of game previews that we began two weeks ago.
Since the start of the ‘24 season, I’ve published a game recap within five minutes of the end of each game. Each of the more recent of these recap articles has started with a “precap”, providing a bit of pre-game context. The rest of the recap article includes a detailed summary of each quarter, along with halftime and full-game team statistics and partial box scores.
Today, this “precap” is being published on game day morning, with the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarter summaries to be published as each quarter ends, with the idea that anyone who is unable to watch or listen to the game live can at least read the quarterly summaries as they are posted to get a sense of how the game is going.
The full recap, with every section included, will be published as usual within minutes of the end of the game.
What follows here, then, is not really an ‘article’, and it likely doesn’t cover anything unfamiliar to you; it’s just the introduction to the full game recap, intended to establish the ‘context’ for the game before kickoff. It will be included in the published recap of today’s game.
The Commanders and Cowboys are living out the 2024 seasons that were imagined — one team is looking to reach its 12th win this week while the other is stumbling towards the finish line of a difficult season with a losing record already locked in. But somehow it’s the Commanders looking for their 12th win while Cowboys fans worry about draft position and potential coaching changes.
What’s surprising is how fortunes have changed since preseason. The Cowboys were expected by most NFL observers to have a good chance to achieve their 4th consecutive 12-win season, and — stop me if you’ve heard this before — some media members expected them to contend for a Super Bowl berth. Instead, Dallas stumbled out of the gate, opening with a 3-5 record even before starting QB Dak Prescott was lost for the season. Instead, it is the Commanders, who had a pre-season win total over/under of 6.5, that have found ways to win and who have already locked up a playoff spot.
The Cowboys have little left to play for but pride, and that was not enough to avoid a 41-7 thrashing at the hands of the Eagles in Philly a week ago, despite the fact that the Dallas offense opened the game showing a bit of life.
With an NFC playoff berth already guaranteed, some might feel that the Commanders also have little to play for; however, a loss to the Cowboys would likely see Washington fall from the 6th seed to the 7th seed in the NFC playoff bracket. The opportunity to complete a 12-win regular season for the first time since Washington’s last Super Bowl season might be seen as a worthy milestone by many. Still, some observers were questioning whether the team might prioritize getting players healthy for the playoffs — that is, until head coach Dan Quinn made his thoughts on the matter clear:
“We’re going to go after it as hard as we can. I think the seeding portion of this is really important, and that’s what we discussed as a team. We thought last night — the vibe was awesome at the game — we thought we left some plays out there. And so, for us, that leveling up as we’re heading into this week with Dallas would be really important. But we recognize having a sixth seed and going into the playoffs with that is a good thing. So, we’re going to fight like hell to keep that.”
The Commanders have a lot to clean up to get into playoff form. They suffered 5 turnovers in the victory over the Eagles two weeks ago and were flagged 13 times for 108 yards last Sunday in the overtime win vs the Falcons.
Dan Quinn and the Commanders players will be seeking to eliminate these self-inflicted wounds against the Cowboys today, and I think it’s fair to say that they will be wanting to win convincingly to prove a couple of points. They will, of course, want to build confidence and momentum heading into Super Wildcard Weekend and a game against either the Rams at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles or the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.
But they will also be keen to make amends for what was the team’s worst showing of the ‘24 season when they were soundly beaten in Landover by the Cowboys, who were, at the time, riding a 5-game losing streak.
The Cowboys have played fairly well since Week 12 despite significant injuries. Starting with the road upset of the Commanders, the Cowboys have put together a 4-2 record over the past six games, losing only to the Bengals and Eagles on the road.
Washington, for its part, has won 4 straight games since that Week 12 embarrassment at home vs Dallas, and, while they will be missing a few key players due to injury, RB Austin Ekeler, one of the most productive offensive players this season, will return today after spending 5 weeks on IR due to a concussion.
Washington has scored 30 or more points seven times, including three times in the last four games, and is one of only three teams to score on more than half of its drives this season.
The Commanders statistical performance seems to belie the on the-field performance of individual players and collective units. That is, the team has good offensive and defensive rankings despite obvious issues on the field. The reason for this is the team’s mistake eraser, Jayden Daniels.
By way of example, the Commanders have the 3rd ranked rushing offense in the NFL through 17 weeks. One would expect that Washington’s running backs have elite production, yet this is what they’ve accomplished:
With less than 1,600 yards, the running backs should rank in the bottom third of the league in rushing production, but the team’s leading rusher is not a running back, but the team’s starting quarterback. Jayden Daniels has rushed for 864 yards at an average of 6.0 yards per carry.
With his mobility, Daniels makes the offensive line look better.
With his athleticism and ability to diagnose defensive schemes, Daniels has led the team to success on 19 of 22 fourth-down attempts this season — leading the league. This ability to extend drives means that Washington ranks 7th in the NFL (30:57) in time of possession — and 4th over the past 3 games (32:55 excluding OT), which helps the Commanders defense.
Daniels’ processing, mobility and accuracy have created opportunities for his receivers. Terry McLaurin has achieved another 1,000+ yard season, and has a career-best 12 TDs. But other players have benefited as well. Noah Brown, in 11 games before an injury put him on IR, had 453 yards. Olamide Zaccheaus has led the team in receptions and yards recently, with 13 catches for 155 yards and 3 touchdowns in the past two weeks. Zach Ertz, at age 34, is on track for his second-best season since 2019, with 610 yards and 6 touchdowns in 16 games.
Unfortunately, getting the wins against the Eagles and Falcons in the past two weeks has required Jayden Daniels to put on his Superman cape in both games.
- He has averaged just over 240 passing yards and 4 TDs per game while rushing for over 100 yards per game.
- On 3rd & 4th downs in the Atlanta game, Daniels was 9-for-12, picked up 10 first downs and threw three touchdowns.
- In the overtime period on Sunday Night Football against Atlanta last week, Washington’s scoring drive covered 70 yards in 12 plays. Jayden Daniels rushed or passed for 69 of those 70 yards, and was so exhausted that Dan Quinn called timeout prior to the final play of the game just to let him catch his breath.
While every Washington fan can revel in JD5’s accomplishments, this reliance on one player to make everyone else right is not a sustainable model for a playoff contender. Today, fans should be looking for a largely mistake-free game that avoids turnovers and excessive penalties, and a full-team win in which the OL blocks well, the RBs earn the hard yards, the defensive line puts pressure on the opposing QB and the Commanders secondary plays well against the Cowboys’ receivers.
Washington doesn’t need to win today to get in the playoffs, but they need to play well and win decisively to set the stage for a successful playoff campaign.
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