Survey results!!
This week’s results from the Reacts survey seem somewhat counter-intuitive at first, but with a bit of reflection, the thinking of Commanders fans who completed the survey becomes clear.
Two contests with the Eagles with opposing results — Thursday Night Football and the NFC East championship
Just over half the fans responding to the survey here on Hogs Haven predict that the Eagles will win tonight’s matchup on Thursday Night Football, but a greater number — 58% — expect the Commanders to win the NFC East title.
A few factors are at work here.
Firstly, fans perceive that the Commanders roster is a bit beat up at the moment, and that traveling to Philadelphia on a short week favors the Eagles. Oddsmakers, who have installed Philly as 3.5-point favorites, appear to agree.
A second — but related — factor is Marshon Lattimore. Although he has never played for the Commanders, Adam Peters acquired the 4-time Pro Bowl cornerback in a trade last week just before the NFL’s trade deadline. Unfortunately, Lattimore is currently suffering from a hamstring injury and won’t be ready to play tonight. The general feeling is that when he gets on the field, his addition will be transformative for the Washington defense. If he were playing tonight, I suspect a number of fans would have been swayed to predict a Washington victory. The point is that, with him, Washington fans expect a huge improvement, which will not help the burgundy & gold win tonight, but should help the Commanders stack up victories in the final six games of the season.
A third factor is that the Eagles schedule has been even softer than Washington’s to this point in the season, and Philly’s schedule down the stretch is tougher than that of the Commanders. Let me put some numbers to that.
Through the first 10 weeks of the season, both Washington and Philadelphia have 7 wins, but the Eagle’s nine opponents have had a weaker winning percentage than have Washington’s ten opponents:
- Eagles’ opponents combined win % = .368
- Commanders opponents combined win % = .448
Looking ahead, though, things will even out over the coming weeks. If you discount the two games that they play against each other, the winning percentages of remaining opponents (Weeks 12-18) are:
- Eagles opponents = .456
- Commanders opponents = .368
Aside from the Eagles, the only team on Washington’s remaining schedule that has a winning record is the 6-4 Falcons.
The Eagles, however, have to face the 7-3 Ravens, the 7-2 Steelers, and travel to Los Angeles to play an unpredictable Rams team that is currently 4-5, but 3-1 in their last four games.
The feeling seems to be that Washington will make up some ground as the Eagles accumulate a couple of losses in the final 7 weeks, while Washington gets healthier with a Week 14 bye, gets stronger with the addition of Marshon Lattimore, picks up a string of wins against teams who have no hope of the playsoffs, and — most importantly — that Washington beats the Eagles at Landover in Week 16.
With all of this taken into account, 58% of Hogs Haven readers who completed our weekly survey see a clear path to a division championship even as 51% of those same fans expect a loss tonight.
The national outlook
For what it’s worth, the Reacts survey that is emailed to registered fans of all 32 teams sees a clear Eagles victory tonight, with 57% willing to give 3 points and still pick the Eagles to cover the spread.
Overall confidence
Commanders fan confidence in the direction of the team has not fallen below 92% since Week 3 of the season, and, in fact, has only been below 92% once this season, following the opening week loss to the Buccaneers.
This week, despite the mistake-filled nail-biter loss to the Steelers on Sunday, confidence in the team’s direction remains strong.
Ninety-six percent of those surveyed did not have their confidence shaken by Sunday’s setback as they focused on the many positives: new ownership, talented front office, motivated and successful coaches, and a cohesive and high-performance roster led by a rookie quarterback who is the leading candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and who gets mentioned regularly in the discussion of league MVP candidates.
The NFC East standings
Washington had been at the top of the NFC East since beating the Giants in Week 2, but that changed when the Commanders lost to Pittsburgh on Sunday while the Eagles beat the Cowboys.
The Eagles now hold a half-game lead on the Commanders, and can stretch that to a 1.5-game lead if Philly can win at home tonight.
Of course, with a road victory, Washington would move back into the lead by a half-game, but would, with the head-to-head victory over the Eagles, have an effective 1.5-game lead that would force the Eagles to finish with a better season record than Washington or, at the very least, win in Landover a few days before Christmas in order to pass the Commanders in the race for the division crown.
Things obviously look grim for the other two teams in the division. The Giants, who are currently positioned for the #2 overall pick in the 2025 draft, are on a bye this week. The Cowboys, who will be without starting quarterback Dak Prescott for the balance of the season due to a serious hamstring injury, face their in-state rivals, the Houston Texans today.
In the Reacts national email survey, 88% of fans from all 32 fan bases predict that the Texans will beat the Cowboys by 8 points or more. Meanwhile, the percentage of Dallas fans expressing confidence in the direction of their team has fallen to just 2% as the ‘24 season has imploded for the Cowboys.
The race for the NFC East title is, at this point, a two-horse race, and there seems to be little support for the idea that things will get better for either New York or Dallas.
Clearly, tonight’s game against the Eagles is a big game with important ramifications for both teams’ playoff chances, but it seems just as clear that tonight’s result will not be the final determiner of the division title for either team.
Win or lose tonight, there will be a lot of football left to play, and both the strength of schedule remaining and the expectation of improved defensive play with a healthy Marshon Lattimore offer reasons for Washington fans to stay confident and focused on the NFC playoff seeding throughout the final two months of the regular season.
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