Survey resulst!!
Jayden Daniels
This quote is from the Stats & Snaps article published on Hogs Haven this week:
The obvious explanation of Daniels’ slump in the last two losses is the rib injury he suffered in Week 7 against the Panthers. A few commentators have shown aggregate stats before and after the injury that seem to back that up. But it doesn’t really hold up at the individual game level.
Daniels had good games against the Giants (QBR 96.0) and the Bears (QBR 69.9) [after getting injured]. It has only been in the last two games that his play has dropped off dramatically (Steelers QBR 36.1; Eagles QBR 22.7 – season low).
Also, the issues with his play have been somewhat different in the two losses. Against the Steelers, his passing was poor under pressure. Against the Eagles, he resorted almost exclusively to short passes. The common element is that both opponents contained his running and it seems to have impacted his ability to evade pressure.
It could be the injury flaring up. Defenses could have figured him out. He might be hitting the “rookie wall”. Or he might just have had two bad games against tough defenses.
In this week’s Reacts survey of Hogs Haven readers (which was put out there before Matt published his Snaps & Stats article) we asked respondents to answer the question raised in his Stats & Snaps article quoted above: What caused Jayden Daniels’ recent struggles?
It turns out that Hogs Haven readers share the conclusion that Matt seemed to be leaning towards in his article — that the primary issue was that Jayden was playing against two very good defenses.
As Matt pointed out in the article, the Steeler and the Eagles are particularly adept at containing mobile quarterbacks; the Eagles because they practice against Jalen Hurts, and the Steelers because they play against Lamar Jackson twice each season. Both defensive lines are highly effective at rushing with good lane integrity, and with DEs not over-rushing and simply getting pushed behind the QB, so that Jayden had little or no room to escape the pocket in those two games.
Hopefully, the Commanders offense will have learned some things from those two games, and will be able to move the ball and score at a high rate against a struggling Dallas defense that ranks 31st in points per game surrendered and 27th in yards per game given up.
About that upcoming game against Dallas
The Commanders, last time I checked, were 9.5-point favorites against the Cowboys this week. In the Reacts survey, we asked readers to predict the outcome of Sunday’s game.
96% of respondents predicted a Commanders win, with more than half of all respondents expecting Washington to cover the spread.
For a little more reference, let me show you a summary of the entries into this week’s Hogs Haven Pick’em contest:
- In picking the winner without factoring point spread, 100% of entrants took the Commanders this week.
- Despite the fact that I used a more aggressive point spread of 11.5 point, 56% of entrants backed the Commanders to cover -11.5 against the Cowboys.
I think it’s fair to say that confidence is very high that Washington is ready for the challenge and the expectation is that, by Monday, the Commanders will be 8-4.
Overall confidence
We measure fan confidence every week by asking if readers are confident in the Commanders’ direction. I had anticipated a dropoff this week following the loss to the Eagles, but I was wrong. The percentage of “yes” votes held steady at 96% — the same as last week.
In fact, Washington fan confidence has fallen below 92% only once all season, and that was after the Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay. Commanders fans have been the most consistently confident fans in the NFL in 2024, based on the results of our Reacts surveys of all 32 fan bases.
Fans of our division rivals are not as serene.
- The Eagles fan confidence tallied 93% this week, but it had previously tumbled as low as 9% in Week 5.
- Giants confidence rose this week from 28% to 42%, seemingly driven by the decision to bench Daniel Jones in favor of Tommy DeVito.
- Dallas fan confidence hit a low point of 2% last week, but “rebounded” slightly to 6% this week, perhaps because Cooper Rush was able to throw for 350 yards in a 34-10 loss to in-state rival, the Houston Texans.
The NFC East
Washington currently sits in second place in the division, 1.5 games behind the Eagles, but, with Philly having the tie-breaker advantage right now, the Commanders would have to overcome an effective 3-game lead to win the division.
Obviously, Commanders fans feel good about the expected outcome of this week’s game, but what about NFL fans more generally?
Fans of all 32 NFL teams who are registered to participate receive an email survey every week of the season. Each fan has the opportunity to pick each weekly game against the spread. Here are the predictions for this week’s NFC East games:
Fans nationally are backing the favorites in all three games to cover the spreads, meaning that the Eagles and Commanders are expected to win, while the Cowboys and Giants are expected to lose.
If these thousands of NFL fans collectively got this right, then Washington won’t be able to make up any ground on the Eagles this week. The best chances of the Eagles faltering are — of course — against the Commanders in Week 16, and against the Ravens and Steeers in Weeks 13 & 15.
At this point, Giants fans and Cowboys fans are mainly concerned with who will be coaching the teams next season, and which players their front offices will draft in April 2025.
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