Commanders now have a 94% chance of making the playoffs
The playoff seeding scenarios are pretty simple now. The Commanders have four mathematically possible outcomes to the regular season:
- They can still miss the playoffs entirely
- They can earn the 7th seed
- They can earn the 6th seed
- They can still win the division and the #2 seed (though it is the least likely of the four outcomes)
Let’s find out what would have to happen for each of these to occur.
Missing the playoffs entirely
The Commanders will get into the playoffs with a win or a tie in either of their two remaining games.
To miss the playoffs entirely, the Commanders would have to lose to both the Falcons at home in Landover this week AND to the Cowboys in Dallas next week, dropping them to 10-7 on the season.
But that’s not all…
The only team that can still displace the Commanders from the 7th seed is the Buccaneers, and the ONLY way that can happen is if the Falcons and Buccaneers BOTH finish 2-0 to end the season with identical 10-7 records. Atlanta would win the division title and the Bucs would be tied with Washington in the wildcard race at 10-7; however, Tampa Bay holds the tie-break advantage because of their Week 1 victory over the Commanders.
So, to recap, the only way Washington misses the playoffs is if:
- Commanders lose both remaining games
- Falcons and Buccaneers each win their final two games
Earning the 7th seed
As mentioned above, the only team that can knock Washington out of the playoffs is Tampa Bay, and only if the Bucs do not win the NFC South division title.
The Commanders will earn the 7th seed if ANY of these things happen:
- Commanders win or tie in either of their final two games
- Buccaneers lose or tie in either of their final two games
- Falcons lose or tie in either of their final two games
Earning the 6th seed
Washington has a fair chance of finishing as the #6 seed in the NFC because Washington, if it finishes with the same record as the Packers, will hold the tie-breaking advantage (win% vs NFC opponents).
- Green Bay is currently 11-4
- Washington is currently 10-5
Green Bay plays at the Vikings this Sunday, and closes out at home against the Bears. If the Packers win both of their remaining games, then the Commanders cannot displace them from the 6th seed.
To secure the 6th seed, Washington needs to win one more game than the Packers in the remaining two weeks.
- If the Packers lose to the Vikings on Sunday, then Washington would end up with the 6th seed by winning its final two games (Falcons, Cowboys)
- If the Packers lose to both the Vikings and Bears, then the Commanders would end up with the 6th seed by winning one of its final two games.
Winning the NFC East
It is still mathematically possible for the Commanders to win the division title. The scenario seems unlikely at this point, but here’s what would need to happen:
- Washington would need to win its final two games vs Falcons and Cowboys
- Philadelphia would need to lose its final two games vs Cowboys and Giants
The result would be that both teams (Commanders and Eagles) would finish 12-5. Since they split the regular season series, the next tie-breaker would be win% against NFC opponents.
The Commanders would be 9-3 while the Eagles would be 7-5, so Washington would win the tie-breaker and the division title, securing the 2nd seed in the NFC Playoffs, while the Eagles would become a wildcard team.
We could know a lot before the Commanders play on Sunday night
Tampa Bay plays Carolina at 1 pm on Sunday. If the Bucs lose or tie, Washington will have secured the 7th seed before kickoff of Sunday Night Football.
Green Bay plays Minnesota at 4:25pm. If the Vikings win, then Washington will have the opportunity to move up to the 6th seed by beating the Falcons on Sunday night.
The Eagles host the Cowboys at 1 pm on Sunday. If the Eagles lose that game, then the Commanders opportunity to win the NFC East crown will still be in play.
Week 17 rooting guide
Obviously, root for the Commanders to beat the Falcons in Landover.
Root for Buccaneers to lose to (or tie) the Carolina Panthers at home in Tampa.
Root for the Vikings to beat the visiting Packers.
Root for the visiting Cowboys to beat the Eagles in Philly.
Tie Breakers for non-division opponents
Two Clubs
- Head-to-head, if applicable.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
- Strength of victory in all games.
- Strength of schedule in all games.
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
- Best net points in conference games.
- Best net points in all games.
- Best net touchdowns in all games.
- Coin toss.
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 2 of three-club format.)
Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
- Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
- Strength of victory in all games.
- Strength of schedule in all games.
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
- Best net points in conference games.
- Best net points in all games.
- Best net touchdowns in all games.
- Coin toss
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