Daily Slop – 17 Jan 25: Commanders-Lions key matchups & stats; how Lions fans think their D will slow Jayden Daniels

A collection of articles, podcasts & tweets from around the web to keep you in touch with the Commanders

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ftnfantasy.com

Commanders at Lions: DVOA Preview

The no-punt, no-turnover game has become slightly more common in recent years, but it’s still happened just 39 times since the merger – the mark of a near-perfect offensive day. Three of those 39 games came from the 2024 Washington Commanders. Three of those 39 games came from the 2024 Detroit Lions. Each team sets the single-season record there – heck, only the 2021 Bills even did it twice in a season before 2024 – and now they go head-to-head. You can get under 5.5 punts at +120 and the teams to have the same number of punts at +360 at the moment.

A major part of those no-punt games is the fact that Detroit and Washington have been two of the most aggressive and successful teams on fourth down. Washington is first in both fourth-down DVOA (91.0%) and success rate (84%). The Lions are more modest, at 47.8% and 65%, respectively, but no team in football goes for it more when they should than Detroit. Your exact result will vary from model to model, but the Lions go on fourth down about 65% of the time when the model suggests they should. No one else in the league is above 60%.

Washington is third in DVOA on third/fourth-and-short with a 29.5% DVOA. A lot of that can be chalked up to having Jayden Daniels. He’s picked up a first down on nine of his 10 third/fourth-and-short designed runs, all five of his five scrambles, and a very solid 65% of his pass attempts. He’s a nightmare for defenses to account for when he gets out of the pocket. The Lions, meanwhile rank just 20th on defense on third/fourth-and-short with a 6.4% DVOA. Washington needs to play all third-and-mediums like they are in four-down territory if they want to pull off the upset.

Because of their defensive injuries, the Lions heavily rely on the blitz. They’re sixth with a 33.6% blitz rate, and that jumps to 38.3% and third most if you only look at games after Aiden Hutchinson went down. Daniels ranks 23rd with a -7.4% DVOA against the blitz, but that’s just passing. Daniels 191 DYAR on scrambles led the league, and while part of that is sheer volume, his 40.8% DVOA was ninth among quarterbacks with at least 20 scrambles.

Detroit led the league by playing man coverage 60.7% of the time. Couple that with the blitzing, and Aaron Glenn is trusting his corners to win one-on-one battles up and down the field. This is a mixed bag – Detroit has allowed 34 explosive passes in man coverage, fourth in the league, but also limits teams to just a 40.2% success rate. You either beat them deep (12.2 yards per completion, sixth worst), or you don’t beat them at all (6.5 yards per attempt, ninth best). Daniels’ 1.8% DVOA against man is nothing spectacular, but his 7.5 aDOT against man is seventh lowest in the league. We’ll see if Washington opens up their attack more and looks for deep shots to Terry McLaurin against Detroit’s all-or-nothing defense. (And, of course, man coverage means Daniels scrambling.)

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Bullock’s Film Room (paywall)

How the Commanders defense stepped up against the Buccaneers

Breaking down the adjustments the Commanders made on defense to help slow down the Bucs offense

[T]he Commanders defense managed to keep the Bucs largely in check and held them to just 20 points. So how did they do it? Let’s take a closer look.

Run Game

One of the biggest concerns going into the game was the Commanders ability to stop the run. The Bucs had one of the best rushing attacks in the league during the regular season, but the Commanders managed to contain Bucky Irving to just 77 yards on 17 carries. Now that’s a healthy 4.5 yards per carry average, but it’s significantly boosted by one run that went for 19 yards. Take away that outlier and Irving had 58 yards on 16 carries at 3.6 yards per carry. That’s a much more accurate representation of how well the Commanders run defense played in this game. So how did they do it? Well, there were a number of factors, starting with Bobby Wagner.

Wagner set the tone from the first run that the Bucs attempted. Here they try an outside zone scheme to their right and Wagner blows it up at the line of scrimmage for no gain. The Bucs have a pretty solid look to run this scheme at. Pre-snap, you’ll see the bubble that the Bucs want to attack in the Commanders front. Defensive tackle Daron Payne lines up in the A gap between the center and right guard, while defensive end Dorance Armstrong aligns outside the right tackle. That leaves what’s known as a bubble between Armstrong and Payne in the B gap between the right guard and right tackle.

Linebacker Frankie Luvu is responsible for filling that gap. However, there’s a definite opportunity for the Bucs here. If the center can reach Payne and seal him off on the back side while the left guard can climb and reach Bobby Wagner on the back side, then there could be a big lane created inside. Luvu can fire up to the line and fill the B gap, but as long as the guard blocks him in the B gap, then in theory, Luvu and Armstrong could be shoved outside while Wagner and Payne could be sealed inside, creating a big lane up the middle. That isn’t what happens here though, because all four defenders play this well.

Armstrong starts on the edge, setting a hard edge to force the run back inside. Luvu fills that B gap and again forces the runner to work inside. Payne doesn’t get reached by the center and instead stacks him up, creating a split in the blocking scheme. But the key factor here is Bobby Wagner. He reads the play so quickly and is immediately working to the right side of the line. If you just focus on him at the snap, you’ll see he’s the first to react and he’s already on his second step towards the line of scrimmage before Luvu takes his first. That enables Wagner to beat the left guard to the spot and go make the tackle.

While the Bucs do like to run zone scheme, they’ve become more and more diverse over the course of the season and leaned a lot more into the gap scheme runs. Something the Commanders have really struggled with is pin-pull schemes, so of course the Bucs tried one.

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Washington Post (paywall)

Jayden Daniels has been cold-blooded since childhood

If the Commanders’ rookie quarterback seems especially poised, that’s by design. His father drilled it into him at an early age.

“He does a good job masking his emotions.”

“Whatever he goes through, he goes through on his own.”

“Even if the game’s intense, he’ll still smile and everything. I’m like, ‘What the heck?’ He’s not fazed by anything.”

This is not retroactive mythmaking. His friends said those things back in the summer, before he had taken a snap at sport’s highest level. But this season — which continues in the divisional round against the Detroit Lions on Saturday night — he has made a strong case that he is, in fact, the one. He has turned the Washington Commanders into the surprise of the NFL season, helped a region fall back in love with football and proved his friends right. America is seeing what they saw and saying what they said.

Jayden Daniels is cold-blooded.

Over the past month, poise has become a defining characteristic of the presumptive rookie of the year. Every game has been intense — the Commanders have won five straight on the final play from scrimmage — and Daniels has still looked like one of the calmest people in the stadium. The most emotional Coach Dan Quinn has seen him all year was Week 18 at Dallas, when he flexed and screamed and celebrated after his backup led a last-second, game-winning drive.

“When he’s the one in charge, he’s iced up, man,” Quinn said. He laughed. “He ain’t letting you into that. Inside the lens of that helmet, he’s a killer.”

Over the summer, a reporter interviewed more than 60 people — including family, friends, coaches and rivals — for a profile of Daniels. Everyone mentioned his composure. In September, Daniels was asked the last time he was rattled.

He said it was at a flag football game when he was about 6 or 7. His dad yelled at him, and when he looked at his mom, he cried.

“Obviously, throughout my career, you have ups and downs, and you go through stuff,” he said. “But how I prepare each week is what helps me not be rattled. … I was taught at a young age: Just be even-keeled no matter what.”

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Washington Post (paywall)

David Blough, an ex-Lions backup QB, now has the ear of Jayden Daniels

After a five-year playing career, the Commanders’ assistant quarterbacks coach is thriving in his first year on the sideline.

Blough was signed to the Lions’ practice squad in 2023 and knew it probably would be his last season. Coaching was already on his mind; it was an interest developed largely by the coaches he had, many of whom also were some of his most important mentors.

“I had kind of known before last season started that my body was starting to fail me a little bit,” Blough said. “I had known that I had wanted to [get into coaching]. I think when I was in high school, I said I wanted to be a high school coach. When I was in college, I wanted to be a college coach. And then at the highest level, learning from some of the great coaches that I’ve gotten to be around, this is what I’m supposed to be doing.”

His experience with a variety of play callers — former Lions offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, Vikings Coach Kevin O’Connell, Kingsbury and current Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson — gave him an advantage.

Blough’s three months with O’Connell in 2022 introduced him to the condensed split formations that Los Angeles Rams Coach Sean McVay employs. With Johnson in Detroit, he worked in an explosive offense that balanced run and pass. And with Kingsbury, Blough learned about tempo and how to use it to exploit the defense.

Blough’s connection to Kingsbury as well as Lance Newmark, the Commanders’ assistant general manager who previously was senior director of player personnel in Detroit, gave him an in with the Commanders.

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Commanders.com

Three keys to Washington advancing to the NFC Championship

Don’t be bothered by the atmosphere.

Like the Commanders, the Lions have had a magical season that feels like decades in the making. They can host the NFC Championship game and make it to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.

So, it’s going to be loud at Ford Field this weekend. The Lions’ fans will be cheering their teams on and doing whatever they can to get the Commanders off their game. It’ll be up to the players to remain calm in that environment.

“Everybody puts the implications and makes it bigger than what it really is,” Daniels said. “But at the end of the day, it’s still the game. You got to go out there and stick to your routine, stick to who you are, the process of what got you there, and go out there and just play football.”

It’s become part of Daniels’ skill set to stay cool under pressure. It’s why he completed all eight of his passes on fourth down during the regular season and why he was able to lead the Commanders on a game-winning drive against the Buccaneers. That attitude is infectious for the rest of the team, and because of that, they’ve been able to execute plays in the most significant moments.

The Lions and their fans will test that in a way the Commanders haven’t experienced all season, but if their previous 18 games are any indication, they should be just fine.

“I think you kind of just get used to it, but obviously, it’s something new to me, and I heard Detroit is very electric, so I’m excited for them, for their fans to come out to bring some juice because I know it’s a very passionate fan base and, obviously, rightfully so with the team that they’re having. So, I know it’s going to be loud in there. So, we got to go out there and prepare for the crowd noise.”

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Upcoming opponent

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Pride of Detroit

Commanders vs. Lions: 6 key matchups in Divisional Round duel

Breaking down six key matchups with a deep statistical dive from the Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions

No-Huddle Havoc

One aspect that makes the Commanders offense unique is their reliance, and unified mastery, of a no-huddle offense helmed by Daniels.

673 of the snaps (62.4%) were out of no-huddle. No other quarterback ran more than 290 snaps out of no-huddle. Daniels had 388 out of his 599 total dropbacks out of no-huddle (64.8%) which translated to 18.1 no-huddle attempts per game—the most as far back as FTN’s data goes (2019).

One advantage to the no-huddle is the improved success Daniels has toting the rock, which is likely part of the rationale. When doing so, Daniels’ results on the ground totaled 579 rushing yards (first), 6.4 yards/carry (fifth), 37 first downs (first), 0.39 EPA/attempt (third), 6.4% DVOA (sixth), 59.3% success rate (sixth), 12.1 avoided tackle rate (third), 5.3 yards before contact (fifth), and 1.1 yards after contact (first).

Overall as a rushing offense, when it comes to no-huddle, the Commanders 309 rushing attempts is 148 more rushing attempts than the next closest team this season. Their 111 no-huddle rushing first downs is 56 more than the next closest team. From no-huddle, they average 5.3 yards/carry (fifth), +0.22 EPA/attempt (eighth), 55.3% success rate (10th), 3.1 yards before contact (sixth), and 14.9% explosive rush rate (seventh). The fact that those efficiency metrics are all top 10, despite their frequent tendency to do so, is quite impressive.

Preventing a dual-threat debacle

[T]here has been much consternation among Lions fans about their inability to defend mobile quarterbacks like Daniels.

The Lions defense against both scrambles and quarterback designed runs, are outside of the top 20 teams in a majority of metrics. However, some of their worst performances against mobile quarterbacks coincide with Anzalone’s injury absence. As highlighted above, Anzalone will be a pivotal player in the Lions ability to containing Daniels on the ground, not only because he’ll join forces at the second level with Jack Campbell, but also because it removes other linebackers who had to fill in his place that were liabilities against athletic quarterbacks.

Dose of their own medicine

It’s been well-documented this week, that the Commanders 87.0% fourth down conversion is the highest in the NFL this season. In fact, their fourth down offense had the highest conversion rate of any offense with at least 15 fourth down attempts since at least 1991.

Both the Lions (+119.9%) and Commanders (+103.5%) were the only two teams in the NFL to gain over a full game’s worth of win probability added as a result of going for it on fourth down this season. I would hate to be the casino pit boss if Dan Campbell and Dan Quinn were on the same craps table together.

Man coverage – the Lions’ bread & butter

This season, the Lions defense led the NFL (tied with Denver) by running man coverage on 60.7% of dropbacks.

Against man coverage, Daniels completed 62.3.% of his passes (11th), threw 20 of his 25 passing touchdowns (t-seventh), averaged only 6.4 yards/attempt (26th), registered a 103.9 passer rating (seventh), a +0.07 EPA/dropback (19th), a 43.7% success rate (28th), and an 8.3% explosive pass rate (29th). As a rookie, aside from his passing touchdowns, Daniels has been a much more comfortable and competent quarterback against zone coverage. His ability to shred zone coverage explains why he was able to have so much success in the Wild Card round against the Buccaneers, as they run zone coverage on 66.3% of dropbacks (third).

If the Lions defense can stop the run and make the Commanders one-dimensional, you can bet they’ll continue to rely on the strength of their man coverage abilities. That’s even though man coverage—with defenders turning their back to the quarterback more often—is more susceptible to quarterback scrambles.

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Pride of Detroit

Lions vs. Commanders preview: Slowing down Jayden Daniels

The Lions will have their toughest challenge yet against scrambling quarterbacks on Saturday against Jayden Daniels. Why slowing him down is a must.

Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn loves to blitz, as according to Pro Football Reference, Detroit blitzed on 34.6 percent of plays this season, only behind the Minnesota Vikings. So with Detroit being the heaviest blitz team left in the playoffs, they certainly won’t shy away as to what got them here.

Per PFF, Daniels holds onto the football for an average of 2.98 seconds, the fourth-highest among quarterbacks left in the playoffs, and seventh among all NFL starters. But when he is blitzed, he plays better than when he isn’t. He has thrown for 12 touchdowns and three interceptions when blitzed, and 15 touchdowns and six interceptions when not. So Detroit shouldn’t just do an all-out blitz to try and slow Daniels down as he can play better when his back is up against the wall.

When blitzing, the Lions will have to adjust their goal. The priority must be to contain over attack. Daniels is dangerous with his legs, so keeping him inside the pocket is the biggest goal. But Detroit will have to send extra guys to do that.

Another way the Lions can shut down Daniels’ legs is with their offense. If the Detroit can get a big enough lead in this game—and I think they can—the running game for Daniels will have to change. The clock will turn into their enemy, and they will have to try and score quickly to keep up with the Lions offense. With that, fewer runs will be called, keeping their offense one dimensional. If Detroit can do that, it will keep Daniels in the pocket, and that is when Detroit can dial up the blitz and do serious damage.

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Podcasts & videos

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Javontae Jean-Baptiste + Brian Mitchell on the NFC Playoffs + the Lions | Next Man Up | Commanders

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NFC East links

Bleeding Green Nation

Eagles-Rams playoff preview: 18 things to watch in Sunday’s Divisional Round game

Key factors to Philadelphia’s postseason matchup against Los Angeles.

11 – The Nakobe Dean replacement plan

Dean’s injury is such a shame. He was playing at a such a high level. And he was especially great against the Rams earlier this season. The Eagles will miss him.

Oren Burks exclusively played next to Zack Baun after Dean went down against the Packers. But Fangio made it sound like we could see a Burks-Jeremiah Trotter Jr. rotation moving forward. The Eagles previously used that two-man setup when Dean missed Week 17.

There’s little doubt that McVay will be looking to exploit the non-Baun linebackers. We’ll see if the Eagles are able to get by with what they’ve got or if that’s going to be a major issue for this defense.

12 – Another snow bowl?!

The current forecast for Sunday’s 3:00 PM Eastern kickoff shows a chance of snow:

A playoff snow game could be pretty cool. One would think those conditions should favor the Eagles.

Stafford hasn’t been known for thriving in inclement weather.

Also, the Rams have really only played one cold weather game this entire season: Week 16 at the New York Jets with 23 degree temps and 8 mph winds.

16 – The Shawn Smith factor

Shawn Smith is the referee for this game. If you don’t know who that is, here’s a reminder:

There was some real bad officiating in the Eagles’ loss to the Washington Commanders. One would hope that’s not a factor here, though the Birds previously did beat the Rams in spite of bad calls earlier this season.

The Eagles are 3-3 in six games where Smith has served as the referee.

Penalties called on the Eagles from those games: 45 for 489 yards

Penalties called on the opponents those games: 37 for 296 yards

18 – Beware The Cliff Curse

You have to be steeped in The Ringer’s Philly Special podcast lore to fully appreciate this point but here’s the TL;DR for the initiated.

When Ace Producer Cliff Augustin attends sports games in person, bad things typically happen for Philly sports teams. The evidence suggests that “The Cliff Curse” could be a real thing.

And so it was shocking to hear that Cliff, who is indeed a Philly sports fan, is actually considering going to Sunday’s game against the Rams! If you want the Eagles to win and advance to the NFC Championship Game, do your part to tweet at him and/or write in to the podcast email address (ringerphilly@gmail.com) to tell him NOT to go.

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NFL league links

Articles

ESPN

2024 NFL All-Rookie team: Daniels, Nabers, Bowers, Verse

This might be true every year, but it feels especially true in 2024: You cannot tell the story of the NFL season without the rookie class. The Commanders would not be in the divisional round without Jayden Daniels, and the Eagles might not be there without Cooper DeJean or Quinyon Mitchell.

To size up all of this season’s standout rookies, I made my first- and second-team NFL All-Rookie picks. I named one first-team player and one second-team player at 22 different positions. But before we dive in, a few important notes:

1. Playing time doesn’t matter … but also it does. As a general rule, good rookies earn playing time, and guys who were on the field for much of the season should be rewarded. Snap count can serve as a proxy for quality rookie performance. But it can also serve as a proxy for having a pretty bad team, too. If I said the name “DJ Glaze” (which is a cool name, by the way), how many NFL fans would be able to correctly place the third-round rookie who started every game at right tackle for the Raiders? He was solid and deserves a mention, but it’s always worth remembering that some rookies look far better simply because they got so many more reps than their contemporaries, who catch up in later seasons.

I tried to make my rankings independent of total snap counts, but inevitably, the more snaps a player took, the more likely it was he was producing good film by the end of the season. It creeps in.

2. It was an amazing year for rookie offensive linemen, quarterbacks and cornerbacks. If you asked me for three positions that always need an infusion of young talent, I would have listed offensive line (where the league has long lamented poor development at the college ranks), cornerback (where skill tails off fast, so younger bodies are always needed) and quarterback (because we always need good QBs). That is exactly where the 2024 draft class ended up strongest. Therefore, I couldn’t get extremely deserving players such as Bo Nix, Beaux Limmer (two Bo/Beauxs!), Cooper Beebe, Cam Hart, Tarheeb Still or Olu Fashanu any accolades. This will go down as an extremely impactful class in recent history because of the talent pool at critical positions.

Let’s dive in, starting at QB and going position by position.

Quarterback

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

2024 stats: 3,568 passing yards, 25 TDs, 9 INTs; 891 rushing yards, 6 TDs

Drafted: Round 1, No. 2

As I wrote in December, Drake Maye was the most impressive rookie quarterback given what he did in such a bad situation. But that’s just by a hair over Daniels, who also has excellent film and dramatically outproduced Maye, so I’ll happily give him the first-team nod.

Daniels was an immediate force multiplier for every player on the Washington offense. He was impossibly clutch and cool-headed for a rookie and showed more maturity in avoiding hits and working through progressions than I expected. Daniels has been absolute nails on fourth downs this season, saving a Commanders offense that doesn’t create a ton of explosives by keeping the sticks moving in key spots. He has a 92% conversion rate on fourth-down dropbacks in a league that averages 53%. Daniels has an MVP ceiling — if he can stay healthy over the course of his career. I’d love to see him put on another 10 pounds this offseason.

It was very difficult to exclude Broncos quarterback Bo Nix, who improved over the course of the season and looks like a long-term starter. While Nix outproduced Maye in raw stats, it is worth noting that Maye was better by success rate and first down/touchdown rate, indicating a high level of efficiency — despite getting pressured on 37.3% of his dropbacks compared to Nix’s 28.0%. Nix ripped off more explosive plays, but given his superior pass protection and receiving corps, that is not surprising. Both look like franchise guys, but Maye did it in a much worse environment and gets the second-team spot.

Second team: Drake Maye, New England PatriotsSecond team:Mike Sainristil, Washington Commanders (No, he didn’t play over the slot this season, but he needs to be mentioned on this list because he played very well.)

Cornerback

Second team:Mike Sainristil, Washington Commanders (No, he didn’t play over the slot this season, but he needs to be mentioned on this list because he played very well.)

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Caleb Williams explains to Amon-Ra St. Brown how he got ‘catfished’ by fake Ben Johnson text

and here’s the prank:

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Discussion topics

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